While you can read plenty of the storylines that Super Bowl 59 has produced over the last week and a half, my attention has shifted towards the expanded prop bet menu that comes with the Super Bowl each and every year. Most sportsbooks, like BetMGM, have a large menu of prop bets for every NFL game during the regular and postseason but the Super Bowl is a different animal.
You can find yourself spending an hour looking at the plethora of props and still not get through them all. From the same-game parlay options, to Saquon Barkley reaching 3,000 yards, cross-sport options including a hole-in-one parlay with the Phoenix Open, and, of course, the coin toss.
I’m not one to usually dive deep into the prop boards on a regular NFL week — I dabble. The Super Bowl is a different animal because of the expanded menu, but also because there is only one game and two weeks to prepare for it. When it comes to finding props with value, I do my best to find an “edge” and won’t just be spraying the board with fun bets (for the most part). I’ll look at my NFL Projection Model, which has a prop component to it, while also talking with friends in the industry to make advantageous decisions to squeak out some profit on Super Bowl Sunday.
As always, please shop around for the best price. Every sportsbook has a ton of props this week and sometimes the prices can differ by a decent amount, especially if you’re diving into same-game parlays. If you have any questions about props or strategy, feel free to comment or reach out on X/Twitter and I’ll gladly give my thoughts.
All bets are to win 0.25 units on favorites or risk 0.25 on underdogs unless otherwise noted
Super Bowl 59 best bets
Same-game parlay
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5
Jalen Hurts 300-plus passing yards
Dallas Goedert 75-plus receiving yards (+5000) (risk 0.1 units)
My parlay strategy here is pretty simple. Hard to bet against the Chiefs, right? But the Chiefs winning by margin likely means that the Eagles will have to pass more to try and get back in the game so I like Hurts and Goedert to rack up some stats. Please shop around as this will be priced better at different shops.
Player props
Saquon Barkley under 111.5 rushing yards (-115)
Well, I’m going against Saquon and that’s terrifying. The Chiefs’ run defense is a top-10 unit per my projections and by my numbers, the Eagles have only faced two top-10 run defenses all season. Saquon can pop one off any time he touches the ball, but I have a hunch that the Chiefs will be focusing on not allowing him to find explosives and I think that will be a little tougher against one of the tougher opponents the Eagles have seen this year.
Samaje Perine over 7.5 receiving yards (-115)
Perine hasn’t played a ton of snaps in the second half of the season, but he is a good receiving option out of the backfield for this Chiefs offense. Combine that with the Eagles giving up 15 targets to running backs in three postseason games per PFF and I think there is some value here. My model has this number in the mid-teens and we should be in good shape if Perine gets enough snaps.
Touchdown props
DeAndre Hopkins anytime touchdown (+500)
This isn’t my favorite market this year as I don’t think there are a ton of long shot hopefuls as both teams utilize their best players so much when they get close to the end zone. Hopkins isn’t what he used to be but he’s still a solid red zone target. The Eagles will certainly be keying on Travis Kelce in the red area which should give Hopkins some space for Mahomes to find him.
Other bets
Kareem Hunt to win Super Bowl MVP +6600 (risk 0.1 units)
Leo Chenal to record a sack +950 (risk 0.1 units)
(Photo of Saquon Barkley: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
