With the calendar turning to February, the Greatest Sporting Event on Earth isn’t far behind. Soon enough we’ll be talking Cinderellas, mid-major breakthroughs and Final Four locks.
But it also might be time to start wondering if a March Madness certainty for nearly a decade isn’t such a sure thing this season.
Gonzaga — currently unranked and scheduled Saturday for a huge game at Saint Mary’s (9-0 in the West Coast Conference) — is perplexing, to say the least.
Once a plucky upstart, the Zags morphed into a national powerhouse. The Bulldogs — a term used almost solely by outsiders — have amassed a 313-43 record over the past 10 seasons, playing for the national title twice. Their sustained success has cemented Mark Few as one of the top coaches in college hoops. They’ve reached the Sweet 16 nine years in a row, an unmatched run over that time and a staggering achievement for a school that roughly half the population still mispronounces. (Programming note: No one calls them “the Zogs.” Remember this.)
For almost 10 years, the Zags have been a bracket lock, one of the surest picks you could make in any of your pools.
But this season, at least right now, they feel like a risk.
The Zags (16-6, 7-2 WCC) entered the season ranked No. 6, a testament to coming off a 27-8 season and returning four of their starters, 81 percent of last season’s scoring and 71 percent of last season’s rebounding. They annihilated Baylor in their season opener, then dropped a few games to ranked teams in December. No big deal, right? But then came the New Year and, with it, a two-game WCC losing streak, which hasn’t happened since 2014 — the last year they missed the Sweet 16. On Jan. 16, Gonzaga lost on the road to WCC newbie Oregon State 97-89 in overtime. Then it went home and lost two days later to Santa Clara 103-99, the Broncos’ first win in Spokane since 2007.
By the way, that same Santa Clara team mostly stood by and watched Wednesday as Saint Mary’s reeled off a 30-0 run against the Broncos on its way to a 67-54 win, the Gaels’ final tuneup before hosting Gonzaga.
According to NCAA bracket projections, the WCC is generally considered a two-bid league, with Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s forecast to earn Big Dance berths. It’s assumed that one will beat the other for the automatic bid in the WCC Tournament, and the runner-up will get an at-large. But there have been times this season when I’ve wondered if Gonzaga is going to have to play its way into the NCAA Tournament, which is unthinkable for a program that hasn’t missed March Madness since 1998.
After the back-to-back losses, point guard Ryan Nembhard had to answer a lot of tough questions, including from his classmates, he said in an interview with The Athletic.
“I did hear about it around campus,” Nembhard said with a rueful smile. “We’re expected to win in this program. We’re expected to do big things in this program.”
Some of the Zags’ problems are obvious. Long considered an offensive juggernaut — they’ve been top-five in points per possession for five consecutive seasons, including this one, according to KenPom.com — the Zags have become a respectable defensive team over the past few seasons.
But going into Saturday’s showdown with Saint Mary’s, they rank 188th in scoring defense (71.6 ppg) and 106th in field goal percentage defense (42.034 percent), brutal numbers for anyone trying to make a postseason run. If you are anxious to score a new career high, you are probably champing at the bit for a chance to play Gonzaga, which has allowed six players to do exactly that this season, most recently Santa Clara’s Tyeree Bryan, who had 35 in the Broncos’ win; Oregon State’s Michael Rataj had a career-high 29 in the Beavers’ upset.
And that wouldn’t be so bad if they didn’t also have problems on offense. On paper, the Zags score a lot — their 89.6 ppg ranks second in the nation behind Alabama — but there are times, particularly at the end of a close game or when they need a bucket to stop a run, that they’re caught looking around, hoping someone else makes a play.
Gonzaga has good players, to be sure. Forward Graham Ike (17.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 60.3 percent FG) is mobile for his size and rebounds well, Nembhard leads the nation in assists (9.9) and senior forward Ben Gregg (11.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg) has really come into his own.
But none of those guys is the type you play through. That reliability, which past Gonzaga teams found in the likes of Drew Timme, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Suggs, isn’t on this season’s roster.
More proof that Gonzaga lacks some oomph: For the second year in a row, NBA Draft experts predict Gonzaga won’t have anyone taken in the first round, a streak that snapped last year after three consecutive drafts (2021, 2022 and 2023).
With all this in mind, I was ready to write off the Zags. Then I watched them run Portland out of its gym, 105-62, on Jan. 25. When I asked Few after the thrashing if he could learn anything about his team after a game like that, where the heavyweight is supposed to crush the underdog, he pushed back.
“We don’t usually win like this on the road,” Few said. “Quite frankly, coming off two losses … you were wondering what the response was going to be. We don’t lose much up there (at home), and we very rarely lose two in a row. Practices were hard, times were a little tense. You never quite know how your team’s going to respond.”
Then it kept responding. After Portland, Gonzaga completely dismantled the Oregon State team that beat it just 12 days prior, topping the Beavers 98-60 Tuesday night in Spokane.
Few called the thumping of OSU “one of our better, if not our best, defensive efforts of the year,” a reference to OSU’s 38.2 percent shooting from the field and 26.1 percent from 3. What’s more, the Zags looked like themselves, destroying their opponent in transition (15-3 on fast-break points) and eager to take big shots (9 of 17 on 3s).
And certainly, that’s encouraging. Maybe this group is more of a Jekyll-and-Hyde situation, where you’re not sure which team is going to show up, versus a true slide back to pre-2015.
Nembhard thinks at least some of the stumbles are a testament to the explosion in parity, across college sports, that’s resulted from the transfer portal and instant eligibility. Gonzaga added four transfers last offseason.
“There’s so much parity right now — and I do like that; it creates more fun and more excitement — it means it can take a while to figure things out,” he said. “Absolutely, we’ve struggled. But I think we’re gonna figure it out.”
They had better do it quickly. Otherwise, the Zags could go from Sweet 16 shoo-in to bracket buster.
(Photo of Gonzaga’s Graham Ike: Jayne Kamin Oncea / Getty Images)
