Yes, the chatter has begun for potentially another winter storm across the Deep South toward the middle and end of next week. We are specifically watching the January 21-23 timeframe which would be next Tuesday through Thursday. Forecasting wise, there is very little we are capable of doing when we are still over a week out.
Once we near the upcoming weekend, we should start to have a better handle on the strength and track of the system. As usual, confidence increases drastically within the 48 hour window leading up to the storm. Therefore, we need to monitor the trends closely over the coming days.
At this point, our confidence stands in the pattern recognition which does suggest the cold air will already be in place prior to any moisture developing to the south. A surface high pressure will approach from our north bringing dangerously cold wind chills in the single digits and teens early next week before anything forms. This is important for winter weather in the Deep South since the cold element is normally what we lack. That will not be the case next week with much of central Alabama struggling to get above freezing even during the afternoons.
However, there is also the rare scenario that the high pressure becomes too strong and further south, giving us extremely dry, cold air. This would suppress the storm system into the center of the Gulf of Mexico, leading to the bulk of precipitation along the Gulf Coast and away from our area. Once the air becomes too dry, it squeezes all of the moisture out of the air, leading to little or no precipitation.
The GFS (American) model shows widespread snow, sleet, and freezing rain breaking out across the region as early as Tuesday. Other long-range models suggest this as well. However, we always approach these models with caution, using them as guidance and not gospel. This model has flipped back and forth between a winter storm and nothing at all over the past 24 hours, so this is just one example of why we approach each solution with skepticism.
Several scenarios are still on the table, and we will be watching this with diligence. Stick with the CBS-42 Storm Team over the coming week for additional updates.
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