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Today we’re discussing the college football coaches who have been brought up in the NFL coaching carousel, plus taking another look at next Monday’s championship game (don’t forget to submit your predictions!).
But first, how long would it have taken you to realize the following photo is of Marcus Freeman in 2009?
Carousel Never Stops
Deion to Cowboys? Freeman to Bears?
There are six head coach openings in the NFL, after New England hired Mike Vrabel on Sunday and the Cowboys parted ways with Mike McCarthy yesterday. The rumor mill includes several prominent college head coaches, none more prominent than new UNC coach Bill Belichick, who heard from Tom Brady’s Raiders, though the 72-year-old has no plans to leave before getting started.
Here are the other names that have come up:
- Colorado coach Deion Sanders and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones have discussed that opening. No interview is scheduled, but The Athletic reported there is mutual interest in keeping a dialogue open. The former Cowboys All-Pro told ESPN yesterday that talking with Jones was “intriguing,” but that he loves Colorado.
- Maryland’s Mike Locksley interviewed with the Jets on Friday. The 55-year-old just finished his sixth season with the Terrapins, where he is 33-41 with three bowl wins. Previously, he spent three seasons at Alabama, being named the nation’s top assistant in 2018 as Nick Saban’s offensive coordinator. He has never coached in the NFL.
- Iowa State’s Matt Campbell has interviewed with the Bears. He is the winningest coach in school history, with a 64-51 record since 2016. Before that, he led Toledo to three nine-win seasons. He’s also never coached in the NFL, but the 45-year-old has the ultimate resume-booster: a Pop-Tarts Bowl win.
- The Bears want to interview Notre Dame’s Freeman, NFL Network reported on Sunday, but it’s unclear if the 39-year-old has any interest. He has the Fighting Irish playing for a national championship in just his third season. A former Ohio State linebacker (prepare to hear that detail on Monday night), he was a fifth-round pick by the Bears in 2009, but a return to Chicago seems unlikely.
- Former USC title-winner Pete Carroll is interviewing with the Bears and Raiders. Now 73, the former Seahawks HC is one of just three coaches to win a college football national championship and a Super Bowl. (In Dallas, Sanders played for one of them, Barry Switzer, who’d been hired to replace the other, Jimmy Johnson.)
So what are the chances these candidates go further than the talking stage? I asked Scoop City writer Jacob Robinson to rank their likelihoods. This is what he told me:
- Carroll
- *Enormous gap*
- Everybody besides Sanders (I can explain)
Why such a gap? Since 2000, only Jim Harbaugh has succeeded in the immediate transition from college to NFL head coach — but he’d had 14 years of NFL playing experience, plus a couple as a Raiders assistant, prior to leaving Stanford for the 49ers.
This decade’s poor showings by Matt Rhule (11-27 in the pros) and Urban Meyer (2-13) also invite doubt toward signing somebody without significant NFL experience. Those scars are too fresh.
There are many reasons why I didn’t include Sanders in my list, but the biggest is that I can’t pretend to have any clue what Jones will do. There’s a reality where this happens. I just don’t think it’s ours.
Check out more of The Athletic’s NFL newsletter, Scoop City, here.
Title Game
Take your pick
Today, let’s get the basics out of the way — and grab a couple prestigious predictions.
Notre Dame (beat Penn State 27-24) and Ohio State (beat Texas 28-14) prevailed in last week’s semifinals to set up a national title game featuring two of college football’s biggest brands. We’ll preview the game in full on Thursday, but first, let’s start with a few notes, courtesy of Ralph Russo.
History: Freeman competed against his alma mater in his 2022 regular-season debut as Notre Dame’s coach. The Buckeyes won that game 21-10 (and last year’s rematch 17-14), along with their other four previous meetings with the Irish, including twice in the Fiesta Bowl. Notre Dame’s last win against Ohio State was in 1936.
Picks: This time, the Buckeyes opened as 9.5-point favorites on BetMGM, but that’s down to 8.5. Austin Mock’s model gives the Irish a 31 percent chance.
Back in December, when The Athletic staff assembled predictions on who would win it all, 16.7 percent picked Ohio State, while 3.3 percent picked Notre Dame. (Oregon, Texas and Georgia each received more votes than the Irish.)
At the start of the Playoff, this title matchup was the fifth-likeliest, per Stewart Mandel, though only two Athletic staffers predicted it. Given the elite prediction skills of those two thus far, I asked them to share their updated prognostications:
Scott Dochterman: Ohio State is the nation’s most complete team, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where it loses this.
However, it had a few frustrating offensive games against Michigan, Texas (the middle quarters) and Iowa (for the first half). To keep it competitive, Notre Dame needs to plug up the Buckeyes’ running game (like Michigan), bracket Jeremiah Smith (like Texas) and force turnovers (like Iowa) plus control the ball on offense and play elite special teams.
Unless Notre Dame hits a big play or two, I fear that it’s too much to ask over a full game, because Ohio State can hit big plays, too. Give me the Buckeyes 24-13.
Manny Navarro: Notre Dame’s been a terrific story all season, and the fact they survived some key injuries to win the Orange Bowl is proof Freeman is maximizing what he’s got, from a roster perspective.
But Ohio State — my preseason pick to win the national title — has proven over three playoff wins it’s a more complete team on offense. I’ve got the Buckeyes winning 29-22.
Your turn: Which team do you think will win? Submit your pick here.
Quick Snaps
What’s more important: beating Michigan or winning a natty? The “Until Saturday” podcast debates the topic with former Ohio State QB Cardale Jones.
College football head coaches voted today to recommend a proposal to shrink the sport’s transfer portal windows to a single 10-day period in January. Right now, there are two windows (20 days in December and 10 in April), both of which involve flaws in the sport’s crowded calendar.
College football’s most-traveled fan will attend his 104th(!!) game of the season at the championship in Atlanta. But for those who know Michael Baker, his commitment to reaching the unofficial world record isn’t surprising.
Carson Beck was the only quarterback Miami’s coaching staff really had its eyes on this time in the transfer portal. Here’s how the Hurricanes lured the former Georgia QB to the Sunshine State, where he will make a little over $3 million in NIL, per The Athletic.
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(Top photo: Michael Ciaglo / The Washington Post / Getty Images)
