What is your New Year’s resolution? For Jon Greenberg and Zac Jackson, it’s starting 2025 by winning a lot of bets. And, you know, exercising more and eating better. But mostly the bets.
JACKSON (4-3 last week, 60-61 overall): It used to be that we got a full buffet of football on New Year’s Day starting at 11 a.m. I remember once waking up in my parents’ house as a college student, throwing up from my choices the night before, then trying to play it cool when I came downstairs to watch Arkansas running for a touchdown in the Cotton Bowl.
I was on Texas.
In this new era, we get the three College Football Playoff games on New Year’s Day, and at least two of them should be doozies. I’m actually glad there’s also one on New Year’s Eve, mostly because I don’t leave the house that night. I’m tempted to take Boise State plus the points, but wouldn’t the most James Franklin thing ever be Penn State romping the likes of SMU and Boise State to get to the final four?
GREENBERG (3-1, 68-49): I’ll be brief because I’m supposed to be off this week, but to answer your last question: Yes.
That’s why I’m on Penn State -11. One thing we’ve learned from the early years of college football playoffs is don’t expect upsets. So I’ll go with Texas -12.5 over Arizona State (though it does feel too high). As for the other two games, Ohio State is technically favored over Oregon, but I’ll take the No. 1 Ducks +2.5. I initially went with Georgia but forgot that Carson Beck is out. So let’s ride with Notre Dame +1.5. (Check out Ben Fawkes’ report on the betting action.)
JACKSON: I’m on Oregon +2.5. I understand that Ohio State is favored because the Buckeyes are incredibly talented, experienced and dangerous — but so are the Ducks. The first game between these teams was so long ago that I don’t think it means much. I think a rested Oregon team will come out and score a bunch of points and while Tennessee was basically just a speed bump, Oregon is good enough to put pressure on the Ohio State sideline.
Give me the No. 1 team catching points. Oregon wins by a touchdown. But when Ohio State is in a big game, take Emeka Egbuka to score a touchdown +130. I can’t, because that’s not legal in Ohio.
This line has already flipped, but the other important bowl game I’ve been tracking is Buffalo -2.5 over Liberty on Jan. 4 in the Bahamas Bowl. Last year, Liberty played Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. This year, Liberty stunk and is now playing on a soccer field without its quarterback. Buffalo with a first-year coach will be motivated and is now rightly favored.
I also lean Georgia, but I’ll pass on that one. I’m going to zoom ahead to the NFL slate and take two: the Vikings +2.5 and the Steelers +1.5.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff’s second round
GREENBERG: Liberty in a bowl game reminds me of the time I saw someone in a Malik Willis Flames jersey at Disney World. Moving on.
I was living and dying with that Lions-Niners game because I picked Detroit in last week’s column and also bet them … until I realized I forgot to make that bet. But they still covered, and my NFL betting record keeps getting better and better.
A lot of people have good NFL records this year because of strong performances from favorites. Will the trend continue in Week 18 when teams are playing out the string?
NFL Fave’s 133-112-6 ATS according to Dave Tuley @ViewFromVegas
NFL Fave’s 35-13 ATS last thee weeks according to Ben Fawkes @BFawkes22
So, 98-99-6 ATS prior. Rash of favorites dominating a very recent phenomenon rather than full season. Aligns with dregs going thru motions.
— Jeff Fogle (@JeffFogle) December 31, 2024
I’ll go with you on your two bets. First, the Steelers +1.5 at home against the Bengals. They’ve been playing terribly, and thanks to our guy Joe Burrow, the Bengals have been winning to stay “in the hunt,” but the NFL stands for … you know the bit.
I’ll also ride with the Vikings +2.5 against the Lions. It’s hard to bet against either team, but you saw how vulnerable Detroit’s injury-riddled defense is right now, and the Vikings offense should take advantage.
In between these Saturday and Monday games are a whole lot of crap. Anything good for Sunday?
JACKSON: I’ll take the Browns team total under when it comes out. They have scored 16 points total in their last three games. Everyone wants and needs to go home.
GREENBERG: No kidding. I’m coming home Saturday and going right to the Bulls game for “Derrick Rose Night.” I’m debating the logic of driving to Green Bay on Sunday morning to watch the Bears score 13 points at Lambeau Field. I’ve been making that trip for this game since 2009, and I missed the only two times the Bears have won up there. I’ve seen a lot of losses, though.
Before the playoffs begin, I’ve decided to put a small amount on some futures bets. Mark these down: Vikings +480 and the Packers +600 to win the NFC and the Chiefs +450 and Ravens +750 to win the Super Bowl.
Once again, two guys who cover the Bears and Browns will have plenty of free time to watch the playoffs.
Zac Jackson’s picks
Jon Greenberg’s picks
(Photo of Justin Jefferson: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
