Shoutout to the Frankford Yellow Jackets.
For 99 years, they held the NFL record of 13 wins in a season while scoring 30 or fewer points each game. That was before the Kansas City Chiefs topped them on Saturday with their 14th win.
The great Tex Hamer led the Yellow Jackets in 1925 with seven touchdowns on the season — five rushing and two on interception returns. But I don’t know if Hamer would have played on a short week fresh off a high ankle sprain like Patrick Mahomes just did. Or run for 33 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Houston Texans.
Mahomes gets an even shorter week this week, but he said his ankle is good enough. And that’s what makes him one of the two greatest quarterbacks ever to play. He is not only one of the most clutch players ever, with a shortstop’s arm and range, but he is also one of the toughest players in the game.
It’s probably why Chiefs coach Andy Reid is never going to retire.
“He spoils the dog out of us there,” Reid told reporters after the game. “Because he’s so tough mentally and physically. You just get used to it, but … most guys don’t come back from that like he did.”
Most guys also don’t come back from the start we had, but we are slowly collecting nuts like a fat, blind squirrel. We were 4-1 in our best bets for our fifth straight winning week in that regard.
Last week’s record: 6-9-1 against the spread, 4-1 on best bets.
Season record: 106-131-3 against the spread, 35-43-2 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Russell Wilson made some great throws in the loss to the Ravens, and the Steelers would have held close if not for an interception and an earlier fumble as he was running in to score. The Steelers have now lost two games in a row, and are 1-2 without playmaking receiver George Pickens (groin), who is off the injury report and set to return Wednesday. And Wilson could get a big break as Chiefs pass rusher Chris Jones is questionable with a calf strain. George Karlaftis is the only other Chiefs player with a double-digit pressure percentage (13.4 percent) in the past six weeks. We almost took the Steelers to keep it close — as their defense leads the NFL with 15 takeaways the past six weeks — but going against Mahomes seems dumb now that he has some toys, with speedy rookie Xavier Worthy getting double-digit targets two weeks in a row and Marquise Brown finally back to join Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins.
The pick: Chiefs
People made fun of C.J. Stroud for crying when receiver and buddy Tank Dell was carted off the field last week. People suck. And Stroud has had a rough year, getting treated like a piñata thanks to his offensive line and already losing receiver Stefon Diggs. Diontae Johnson should help, but not this week. The Ravens should win, but that seems like a lot of points to lay on the road. I guess the wise guys are trying to make it as hard as possible to jump on the Derrick Henry train. He did, after all, have seven explosive runs (20-plus yards) against the Steelers, the most by a player in a game this season — and he has gained 678 yards after missed tackles on the year, 144 more than anyone. The Texans defense has also been trending in the wrong direction, and had a lot of blown coverages last week, while Kyle Hamilton and the Ravens defense has gotten it after an awful first two months. Christmas chalk again.
The pick: Ravens
The Seahawks pushed for us against the Vikings last week even though they were afraid to run the ball. That won’t be the case this week. Meanwhile, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having a coming out party. He’s fifth in the NFL in receptions (93), receiving yards (1,089) and first down receptions (54). As far as the Bears go, we picked them last week even though we’ve said Caleb Williams has not gotten better since they fired the head coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. The Seahawks need the Rams to lose to the Cardinals on Sunday and win their last two games (including against the Rams) to make the playoffs, and that starts here.
The pick: Seahawks
GO DEEPER
NFL Week 17 playoff scenarios: Broncos, Chargers, Commanders eye berths
Every time people write off the Patriots, they twitch a little bit. The Bills were extremely flat last week and the Patriots had a chance to win that game. But, they’re still a very bad team and will have the Chargers’ full attention after some extra rest and with a playoff spot on the line. Gus Edwards is not great, but should be good enough against the Patriots run defense if Jim Harbaugh feeds him. Justin Herbert had the fourth-best EPA per dropback rate (0.49) of his career against the Broncos last week, but still ranks 16th in the category this season with a 0.05 rate. I don’t know what that means, but it’s provocative. This is a sucker’s bet. Everyone and their grandma is taking the Chargers. And for that reason, I am going against Edwards and taking Drake Maye and the not-dead home underdogs with a backdoor cover.
The pick: Patriots
Joe Burrow should garner MVP consideration if he wills the Bengals into the playoffs. (Joseph Maiorana / Imagn Images)
The Bengals predictably have made a run, winning three in a row, and the defense is starting to think about pulling its weight. It ranks tied for second in Weeks 11 through 16 in takeaways with 13 and fifth in opposing passer rating at 84.2. Joe Burrow actually has an MVP case if the Bengals somehow make the playoffs and should take advantage of a banged-up Broncos secondary.
The pick: Bengals
The Rams are on a roll, while Kyler Murray is a true stud fantasy quarterback. But wins are based on reality, and Murray makes too many foolish mistakes every week. It’s one of the reasons it’s impossible to pick Cardinals games this season. While they scored three touchdowns in four red zone trips in the loss to the Panthers, the Cardinals rank 30th in red zone efficiency in the past six weeks at 42.1 percent. Plus, James Conner is hurt. And while rookie receivers thrive, everyone’s favorite coming in, Marvin Harrison Jr., continues to struggle. He ranks last among 51 qualified receivers in separation at pass time arrival, averaging only 1.97 yards of space. The Rams defense has not been great of late but has only given up seven plays of 20 or more yards (second best) the last four weeks. We’ll take Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp bouncing back from a bad week against a Cardinals defense that doesn’t rush QBs.
The pick: Rams
Anthony Richardson can’t throw but he can sure run. The Giants are the worst team in the league, so yeah, run defense is not a strength. Still, last week’s win over the Titans was the Colts’ first by more than a touchdown, so laying eight points on the road is a little absurd. We have been pretty harsh with regards to Drew Lock over the years — we gave Raiders fans permission to burn the facility down if the Raiders took him in the first round — but his offensive line really gave him no chance last week. Lock can’t stay close at home against a team whose QB is threatening Tim Tebow’s record 46.5 percent completion rate?! I am throwing up in my mouth a little but …
The pick: Giants
It turns out it is impossible to get up to play the Patriots a week after a showcase win over the Lions on national television. Josh Allen will bounce back this week and the Bills can wrap up no worse than the No. 2 seed (they’d still be alive for the No. 1 seed if the Chiefs lose Wednesday). The Bills defense, though, has been rough the past four weeks, with an EPA/play of 0.14 that ranks 29th. Even though Aaron Rodgers has been better of late, the Jets offense is still far from good. While Rodgers ranks fourth in expected completion percentage (69.7 percent) the last six weeks, his actual completion percentage (63.7) ranks 23rd because his receivers dropped a league-high 13 passes. The creaky Rodgers is still struggling against the blitz, too, ranking 31st in EPA per dropback with a -0.33 mark. Bills sweep the Jets.
The pick: Bills
Brian Callahan called out his team’s lack of toughness last week, and the Titans responded by falling behind 38-7 to the Colts last week. They scored 23 points in garbage time. If you want to let that influence you, go ahead. Give me the Jaguars and the master of the 4-yard pass, Mac Jones. He throws it deep to Brian Thomas Jr. three or four times a game, and last week the rookie stud caught one and the Jaguars lost by five points to a bad team. This week, he gets two and the Jaguars beat a bad team at home.
The pick: Jaguars
Derek Carr has a chance to make it back Sunday to face his former team. (Stephen Lew / Imagn Images)
There is apparently a 50-50 chance Derek Carr is back for this game against his former team. If not, the odds are much higher that the Raiders anger their fans more and win two games in a row, as Spencer Rattler is the anti-Mahomes. It might help a little if Chris Olave or Marquez Valdes-Scantling is back Sunday, but not much. The Raiders can’t crack 21 points, even with Brock Bowers needing only 10 yards to break Mike Ditka’s rookie record for tight ends and Jakobi Meyers leading the league with zero drops in 110 targets. Bad news? The Raiders can’t run the ball (league-worst -0.23 EPA per rush rate). Good news? The Saints can’t stop the run (31st in defensive EPA per rush at -0.06).
The pick: Raiders
We got comfortable on the Bryce Young wagon when everyone jumped off last week. He rewarded us with some nifty scrambling and a fourth quarter where he completed 7 of 9 passes for 83 yards. And he didn’t turn the ball over. That said, this is a great bounce-back spot for the Buccaneers after they blew control of their playoff spot by losing to the Cowboys. But they had all they could handle in the first meeting with the Panthers, winning in overtime, and this one goes down to the wire again.
The pick: Panthers
The Eagles are pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed, so there is no need to rush Jalen Hurts back. That’s quite a Christmas gift for Cowboys pass rusher Micah Parsons to find Kenny Pickett sitting there under the tree. Parsons had a sack and six QB pressures last week and has led the Cowboys to four wins in their last five games. The secondary is also starting to blast people as this team has its edge back. Hurts’ absence would really hurt Saquon Barkley’s pursuit of the all-time rushing record. He needs 268 yards in the last two games, but after Hurts went down last week, the Commanders held him to 34 yards over the last three quarters after he ran for 109 in the first. He was hit behind the line of scrimmage 13 times on his final 22 carries. The Cowboys will likely stack the box as well, especially because their run defense ranks 30th in EPA per rush rate (-0.07) in the last six weeks. Dallas does rank first in sacks (23) and second in takeaways (13) over that same span.
The pick: Cowboys
The Dolphins need to win out and get a lot of help to make the playoffs. They had more pride than the 49ers did in prevailing last week, but that was at home and the forecast calls for rain on Sunday. It’s like beating a dead fish talking about how much Tua Tagovailoa and his teammates wilt up in cold weather. Then again, the Browns waved the white flag when they started Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB last week. They don’t want to win, and their players know it. It all comes down to how much faith you have in Browns mudder Jerome Ford, who ranks fourth in the league in EPA per rush rate at 0.08 (minimum 100 touches) and third in yards per carry with a 5.5-yard average. I, it turns out, don’t have much.
The pick: Dolphins
The Packers were looking ahead to the Vikings when they played the Saints on Monday night. As well you should when facing Spencer Rattler. The Saints were such light work that the Packers pulled their starters early, and they still rank fifth in points per game (30.5), third in EPA per play (0.17) and second in offensive play success percentage (52.7 percent) the last six weeks. The difference in this one will be the Packers defense, though. Sam Darnold has been sacked 19 times in the last six games, and the Packers will complete their comeback from being down 28-0 (losing 31-29) in the first matchup three months ago.
The pick: Packers
GO DEEPER
NFL QB stock report, Week 17: What’s next for Kirk Cousins if Michael Penix Jr. thrives?
Michael Penix Jr. cruised in his first start for the Falcons, thanks to two pick sixes from his defense, but here is the only stat you need to know: he threw over 10 air yards on 43.8 percent of his attempts, a big jump from the 34.5 percent from former starter Kirk Cousins. Penix can move and has good pocket presence, and his 0.44 EPA per dropback rate versus the blitz ranked eighth last week. Meanwhile, Bo Nix teased for a second and Brock Bowers was never considered as he should be, but Jayden Daniels locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award last week by becoming the third QB ever to throw five touchdowns and run for 75 yards in a game. He has blind trust in Terry McLaurin, whose target passer rating of 143.2 is the best in the NFL in the last six seasons. Washington won last week despite turning the ball over five times last week, and Penix won’t have it as easy this week.
The pick: Commanders
The Lions keep winning despite their injuries on defense, and one of the reasons is receiver Jameson Williams. He had a career-high 143 yards last week and leads the league with 8.9 yards after catch per reception. Jared Goff has been spreading the ball around and, over the last six weeks, he leads the league in EPA per dropback rate (0.38), total EPA (99.4) and passer rating (120.3). Meanwhile, Brock Purdy is 13th in EPA per dropback rate (0.09), 14th in total EPA mark (17.7) and 22nd in passer rating (89.3) over that same span. The Niners can clinch last place in the NFC West with a loss, and I think they lose … by 3. Deebo Samuel Sr. finally showed a pulse last week, Nick Bosa is still tormenting quarterbacks and at some point, the Lions’ injuries on defense have to hurt them a little bit. Not a lot Monday … just a little.
The pick: 49ers
Best bets: We are rolling with three of the top slingers as Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen lead the Bengals, Rams and Bills to easy-ish home wins over the Broncos, Cardinals and Jets, respectively. Then we look at a couple of defenses, the Cowboys’ and Commanders’ (crazy, right?) to spur covers against the Eagles and Falcons.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Bryce Young, baby. The Panthers are 3-4 after a 1-7 start and are getting eight points (plus-320 on the moneyline) against the pressing Buccaneers.
— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder.
(Top photo: Jason Hanna / Getty Images)
