In the period after Ken Holland exited the general manager’s job for the Edmonton Oilers and before the hiring of his replacement (Stan Bowman), CEO Jeff Jackson and his hockey ops department delivered a series of value free-agent deals with established veterans.
Or so it seemed at the time.
The blockbuster July 1 for Edmonton included signing wingers Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner and re-signing centre Adam Henrique, who came over from the Anaheim Ducks at the deadline.
Jackson and his staff also added defenceman Josh Brown and re-signed forwards Connor Brown, Corey Perry and Mattias Janmark.
How are these men doing?
The skill wingers
Every August I publish estimates of offensive and defensive output for individual players on the Edmonton roster. Games played, goals per game and points per game totals give us a line in the sand for expectations. Here’s a look at the Oilers’ free-agent skill wingers and how they are doing so far this season.
| Player | GP | Goals-Game | Points-Game |
|---|---|---|---|
|
75 (82) |
0.49 |
0.92 |
|
|
28 (28) |
0.18 |
0.39 |
|
|
70 (82) |
0.3 |
0.73 |
|
|
16 (28) |
0.13 |
0.31 |
The first line is my projection; the second line for each player is current production.
Jeff Skinner has played in every game, that’s a positive. However, he isn’t getting much power-play time or spending his five-on-five minutes with one (or both) of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. His playing time is down two minutes year over year, and almost all of the TOI losses are coming on the power play.
He’s off the predicted pace offensively by a significant margin.
Skinner is playing well with Henrique as his centre. At five-on-five, he has posted 2.10 points per 60 with Henrique and appears to be working his way into the good graces of coach Kris Knoblauch.
Viktor Arvidsson’s season is even more disappointing, as injury has impacted him early. Reporting from The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman has Arvidsson practising with the team next week, meaning a possible return around Christmas is possible.
In the days before he was injured, Arvidsson was having a difficult time finding chemistry on the second line with Draisaitl (just 1.16 points per 60 at five-on-five). Knoblauch will want to find a place on the roster where Arvidsson can thrive, and we may see him with Henrique on the third line upon his return.
Adam Henrique
| Player | GP | Goals-Game | Points-Game |
|---|---|---|---|
|
70 (82) |
0.23 |
0.57 |
|
|
28 (28) |
0.07 |
0.32 |
The numbers are shy offensively compared to my projections, but recent days have seen improvement for the veteran centre. He had three assists in four games heading into action Tuesday night. Henrique owns a handsome 57 percent goal share (12-9) and his line has been part of the team’s recent success.
Bottom-six wingers
| Player | GP | Goals-Game | Points-Game |
|---|---|---|---|
|
70 (82) |
0.11 |
0.29 |
|
|
28 (28) |
0.11 |
0.29 |
|
|
50 (82) |
0.12 |
0.28 |
|
|
28 (28) |
0.18 |
0.29 |
|
|
67 (82) |
0.04 |
0.16 |
|
|
28 (28) |
0.04 |
0.39 |
My projected totals align very well with this group, indicating the three men listed are performing at expected levels or exceeding reasonable expectations.
The “big three” free agents (Skinner, Arvidsson, Henrique) are lagging based on the projections; the role players on the bottom six are saving the day for Jackson’s signings.
Connor Brown has played multiple roles up and down the depth chart due to injury and is scoring at the projected pace. He’s also running a 50 percent five-on-five goal share and is part of the penalty-killing rotation.
Perry is playing more than expected (he has appeared in every game) and is on a 15-goal pace for the 82-game season. That’s borderline breaking news for an NHL player who will turn 40 next spring.
Janmark is the most impressive of the July 1 signings, posting 11 points in 27 games, holding down a key role on the penalty kill and playing well at five-on-five. Janmark also delivered a fantastic display of speed that shocked the hockey world. Janmark has been lumped in as “slow boots” with other Oilers on the third and fourth line. Clearly, that’s incorrect.
The forwards
The depth players are scoring well enough to earn a passing grade. Fans expecting Janmark (who scored four goals all last season) or Brown (also four) to fire five goals every 20 games aren’t being realistic about skill set or role.
Perry’s pace is ahead of expectations.
The top group (Skinner, Arvidsson and Henrique) has been slow to come around and criticism is warranted.
Henrique entered the Tuesday game versus the Tampa Bay Lightning with zero goals in nine games. Based on his preseason projections, he should be expected to score two goals every nine games. As anyone who has cheered for a hockey club knows, goals often come in bunches and are followed by long fallow periods.
However, that frames the issue in a way that fails to reveal what’s actually happening.
The best way to display the current situation is by splitting the games played into two segments. Here are the forwards signed July 1, with their splits through the first 28 games:
Numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
The splits reveal encouraging signs for several players. Janmark has been especially productive in this period, playing well on offence and defence. Arvidsson appeared to be experiencing an upward swing when he was injured. Henrique has improved as well in this area, posting the same totals as Brown in the second split.
Although Skinner struggled through the last 14 games, he was posting offence when the rest of the group had a difficult time getting on the scoreboard. There’s a good chance Skinner will regress and score often over the next several weeks.
Edmonton’s July 1 free-agent forwards have been inconsistent but they have produced.
Joshua Brown
One of the victims of the late summer offer sheet, Josh Brown has played in just three NHL games with the Oilers this season.
He was signed as a No. 7 defenceman, as the club looked to replace Vincent Desharnais’ wingspan, size and toughness. The coaching staff quickly dispatched Brown to the minors and the club spent the first 20 games figuring out the second and third pairings.
Brown has played capably for the AHL Bakersfield Condors and there’s a chance he sees an extended period of time with the NHL club before the season is over.
Bottom line
The season is not yet at the halfway point and the Oilers are on a strong run currently. The players signed on July 1 are contributing, with Janmark leading the way and Henrique showing real signs of progress.
Skinner needs to spike offensively and he needs the trust of the coaching staff. Arvidsson needs to get healthy.
The reasonable expectations for the group are within range for all involved.
Jackson’s July 1 signing spree aimed at the postseason and veterans who could make a difference. Despite the early offensive wobble, the veterans are rounding into form.
(Photo of Mattias Janmark and Adam Henrique: Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)
