What started as a sudden advance by Syrian opposition forces last weekend (see REPORT: Coup Underway in Damascus As Two Major Cities Fall to Islamist Insurgents; Assad and Family Flee) has cascaded into a rout of the Syrian army, opposition forces only about five miles from the heart of the Syrian capital of Damascus, and Bashar al-Assad’s allies cutting and running.
Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria on Friday, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive.
Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said.
The move signaled a remarkable turn for Mr. al-Assad, whose government Iran has backed throughout Syria’s 13-year civil war, and for Iran, which has used Syria as a key route to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Guards personnel, some Iranian diplomatic staff, their families, and Iranian civilians were also being evacuated, according to the Iranian officials, two of them members of the Guards, and regional officials. Iranians began to leave Syria on Friday morning, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
Evacuations were ordered at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, and at bases of the Revolutionary Guards, the Iranian and regional officials said. At least some of the embassy staff has departed.
Bashar Assad’s fall seems so likely now that the IRGC forces, diplomats, and their families in Damascus have gone to Ruqayyah Shrine to say goodbye, crying uncontrollably.pic.twitter.com/TTHSBj4RNW
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 6, 2024
On the way out the door, the Iranians counseled al-Assad to negotiate.
Iran’s FM:
Political talks must begin between the Syrian government and the legitimate opposition.
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 7, 2024
To underscore the gravity of the situation, this was Iran’s foreign minister only 24 hours earlier.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi:
Iran is fully prepared to support the Syrian government, people, and army as much as it is necessary. pic.twitter.com/d1sSgwVk54
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 6, 2024
Situation in southern Syria 🇸🇾👀
🇮🇱✈️ Israel’s Channel 12 reports that Israeli aviation have struck Assad regime chemical weapons depots to prevent them from falling into the hands of Syrian rebels. pic.twitter.com/HEyzzkxvyI
— MAKS 24 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) December 6, 2024
Earlier in the week, the Russians informed Syria they had nothing more to offer.
Russia has informed Damascus that any intervention will be limited, as it has other priorities at this time, Sky News Arabia reports.
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 6, 2024
Pleas for assistance from Turkey (lolol) have been rebuffed, and al-Assad is being encouraged to go into exile.
Assad has urged Turkey to intervene to stop the rebels and sought weapons and intelligence help from countries including the UAE, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, but has so far been refused, said the Syrian security officials and Arab officials.
Source: WSJ https://t.co/Y8P2nl46mR
— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 6, 2024
Any illusions al-Assad may have had that he had friends in the Biden White House and Tel Aviv who would intervene to keep him in power evaporated Tuesday when USAF A-10s smoked a column of Iranian-led Iraqi militia that was heading toward the front.
👀🦅A-10, somewhere near Deir ez-Zor, Syria. pic.twitter.com/719WMBzMIN
— Yigal Levin (@YigalLevin) December 3, 2024
Israel hit known Syrian chemical weapons depots to keep the toys away from all of the kids.
Situation in southern Syria 🇸🇾👀
🇮🇱✈️ Israel’s Channel 12 reports that Israeli aviation have struck Assad regime chemical weapons depots to prevent them from falling into the hands of Syrian rebels. pic.twitter.com/HEyzzkxvyI
— MAKS 24 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) December 6, 2024
The opposition forces are going to pains to be friendly and non-threatening to Israel.
⚡️⚡️ “We are open to friendship with everyone in the region, including Israel. We have no enemies except the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran. We hope that Israel will help us more.”
– Free Syrian Army Commander, Times of Israel
— Jason Jay Smart (@officejjsmart) December 6, 2024
Tactical Situation
Updated conflict map. Semi-circle around Damascus city now. We’ll see if/how long it could take to cut off the M5 from the north too. The city would more or less be isolated then from the regime coastal heartland, unless Homs is taken first. pic.twitter.com/jmzO5Pit7m
— Aaron Y. Zelin (@azelin) December 7, 2024
There are two key points here.
First, the city of Homs is critical. If the opposition forces take Homs, which now seems a matter of hours, not days, al-Assad is cut off from his Alawite power base to the west. That area is already under pressure from the east and north, and any regime loyalist forces in that area will probably dig in to defend their homes rather than trying to ride to the rescue in Damascus.
Second, al-Assad’s problem is no longer facing a unified advance by opposition forces on the Aleppo-Hama-Homs axis. Opposition forces suddenly materialized in the south are now pushing into the southern suburbs of Damascus.
WATCH
Fireworks and cheers light up the suburbs of Damascus tonight as celebrations are already underway. pic.twitter.com/dKhIl7BEXZ
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) December 7, 2024
BREAKING: CNN reports that Assad is ‘nowhere to be found in Damascus’ pic.twitter.com/y313upmNrQ
— Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول (@FARED_ALHOR) December 7, 2024
Somebody has left Damascus on a private plane about 1 hour and 50 minutes and is flying east towards Qatar pic.twitter.com/cYXeIPRXRu
— Michael Elgort (@just_whatever) December 7, 2024
I think it is safe to say we are seeing the final days of the al-Assad regime in Syria.
