Winter can be a cruel season for football managers.
With just over one-third of the season played, this is the time of year where struggling clubs have a decision to make. Either stick with the process in the hope a manager can change the team’s fortunes, or twist to give a new coach time to turn the tide.
While last season saw remarkably few manager sackings at this stage of the football calendar, there is a bitter chill descending on Wolves’ Gary O’Neil, West Ham’s Julen Lopetegui, and Southampton’s Russell Martin.
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There is good reason why this might be the case. Beyond a glance at the Premier League table, a rudimentary look at each club’s expected goal difference — a metric which shows the quality of chances a team creates and concedes per game — provides little reason for optimism among the trio of threatened managers.
With Leicester City having already made a managerial change and Ipswich Town’s wage budget and expectations notably lower than their relegation-battling rivals, Southampton, Wolves and West Ham make up the remaining underperforming sides in the bottom five when it comes to this metric.
So, if each club were looking to bring a new man into the dugout, who would — or should — be on the shortlist?
O’Neil and Martin in cheerier times last month (Naomi Baker/Getty Images)
Southampton
It is glaringly obvious where Southampton need to improve in their possession-dominant approach, with a naivety that opponents continue to exploit. Nine errors leading to goals is the highest of any side in the league, with Martin’s insistence on considered build-up play not marrying up with the quality of players he has to execute it.
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Having conceded possession in their defensive third on 99 occasions — unsurprisingly more than any other side — Southampton’s approach under Martin is the gift that keeps on giving.
Looking at Southampton’s playstyle wheel — which outlines how a team plays compared with Europe’s top seven domestic leagues — showcases their fortunes this season.
While we know they like to play out from the back (Deep build-up, 76 out of 99), they are getting caught out far too often (Press resistance, 32 out of 99) which contributes to their terrible defensive record (Chance prevention, 1 out of 99) and rather toothless attack (Chance creation, 31 out of 99).
Improving on those attributes would go a long way to helping fortunes on the south coast. If that were to be another manager, would a look further down the EFL be of use to Southampton’s decision-makers?
In the Championship, West Bromwich Albion’s Carlos Corberan has coached a versatile, disciplined style that has put his side in a strong position for promotion this season. Typically setting up in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, Corberan also encourages a patient build-up style but one of his key strengths is adapting his tactics to the attributes of the opponent — a pragmatic attitude that could be transformative for Southampton.
Matt Bloomfield used to play alongside Russell Martin – could he replace him? (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
As far-fetched as it might sound, one of Martin’s former team-mates Matt Bloomfield has instilled an exciting, effective brand of football at League One leaders Wycombe Wanderers. Wycombe are playing some of the most free-flowing football in the country; no side in the top four divisions has being able to match their 38-goal tally and Bloomfield’s side are the only team to score in all of their league games this season.
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Elsewhere in Europe, a search for greater press resistance — coupled with improved metrics in both boxes — throws up some interesting options.
One is FC Twente’s Joseph Oosting, whose brave style has earned him plenty of plaudits in the Netherlands with his side sitting fifth in the Eredivisie. As shown below, Twente are not afraid to work the ball out from the back (Deep build-up, 77 out of 99) but have shown they are excellent at progressing the ball forward with little fuss (Press resistance, 97 out of 99).
With strong territorial dominance (Field tilt, 89 out of 99), Oosting’s side crucially pack a punch at the top end of the field (Chance creation, 89 out of 99) with a non-penalty xG (1.8 per 90) that is only bettered in the Eredivisie by table-topping PSV.
Across the border, Werder Bremen’s Ole Werner has experience of steering clear of the relegation zone after leading his side to promotion and subsequent consolidation in Germany’s top division in recent years.
Could Ole Werner be on the wheel in the Premier League soon? (Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)
Werner employs a clear 3-4-2-1 formation and similarly likes to play short, sharp passes in Werder Bremen’s build-up phase (Deep build-up, 81 out of 99) — attracting the opponent on to make space in midfield areas which largely work to good effect (Press resistance, 78 out of 99).
Defensively, Werner’s side are not so hot (Chance prevention, 30 out of 99) but Werder Bremen do often employ a man-to-man press that squeezes the pitch where possible (High line, 68 out of 99). Failing that, the 36-year-old’s set up means that his wing-backs will retreat into a 5-3-2 block that Southampton are already familiar with this season.
West Ham United
Staying in the south, West Ham looked set to have a strong campaign after making some seemingly-shrewd signings in the summer, with Crysencio Summerville, Maximilian Kilman, Jean-Clair Todibo, Niclas Fullkrug, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka complementing the likes of Jarrod Bowen, Mohammed Kudus and Lucas Paqueta.
With Lopetegui tasked with shifting away from West Ham’s low-possession, counter-attacking style under David Moyes, the subsequent output has looked rather confusing on the pitch.
As shown below in West Ham’s playstyle evolution, Lopetegui has imposed a higher defensive line at the London Stadium, but neither Kilman nor Konstantinos Mavropanos have the requisite pace to be comfortable with such an approach from centre-back.
For all that West Ham fans grew frustrated at Moyes, you often knew where you stood. For a lot of his tenure, Moyes’s defence was largely solid, but so far this season West Ham have fallen to lower depths in almost (Chance prevention, 8 out of 99).
Director of football Tim Steidten, would be the man tasked with finding a Lopetegui replacement, with his German connections perhaps one of the reasons Edin Terzic has been linked with the role. Terzic was at the club previously as West Ham’s assistant coach under Slaven Bilic between 2015 and 2017.
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Another name linked with West Ham is Graham Potter, who has shown his ability to improve players without resorting to significant spending at other clubs.
While that brief stint at Chelsea might have stalled his career, the 49-year-old’s CV does stack up. Potter likes to impose a dominant, possession-based style of play with the versatility to adapt his structure to the attributes of his own side and the opposition faced.
Looking at his final full season with Brighton in 2021-22, it is clear from their playstyle that Potter likes to be patient working the ball forward (Circulate, 93 out of 99) with a solid defensive foundation (Chance prevention, 72 out of 99) that is built on aggression out of possession (Intensity, 86 out of 99).
A pragmatic, safe option with Premier League management experience could come in the form of Steve Cooper, having recently left Leicester, but as a data-led pick, why not consider Borussia Monchengladbach’s Gerardo Seoane?
The 46-year-old has shown strong pedigree in Germany and his native Switzerland, known for his tendency to instill a high-pressing, energetic style of play. Things have not been so easy for Seoane this season, but looking at Monchengladbach’s playstyle wheel, you can see that they are keen to get the ball forward quickly (Patient attack, 12 out of 99) to generate high-value chances (Shot quality, 80 out of 99).
With a particular focus on transitional play and exploiting wide areas in attack, Seoane’s style could be more suited to West Ham’s squad, utilising the wide threat of Bowen, Summerville and Kudus in particular.
Lopetegui looks set to be in the dugout for West Ham’s bleak-looking clash with Wolves on Monday night, and surely anything less than a stellar performance and result is likely to lead to the club’s decision-makers reaching for their shortlist of managerial options.
Gerardo Seoane’s transitional style could suit West Ham (Ronny Hartmann/AFP via Getty Images)
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Notwithstanding their difficult start to the campaign, Wolves’ performances have been on a downward spiral for too long under O’Neil.
A 4-2 defeat by Bournemouth followed by a 4-0 defeat at Everton in their last two games has demonstrated open-play defensive issues compounded by calamitous defending from set pieces — the ultimate relegation combination.
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O’Neil tried switching to a more front-foot, possession-based style with a back four at the start of the season, but the consensus is that it simply hasn’t worked. Injury issues aside, the continued rotation of personnel across the back line has not allowed Wolves to find any consistency, with too many players not capable of implementing a higher defensive line with a patient build-up.
One man closely linked is former Porto boss Sergio Conceicao, who is a client of Jorge Mendes-founded agency GestiFute — whose links with Wolves have been deeply-rooted in recent years.
Could Sergio Conceicao give Wolves a shout of staying up? (Patricia De Melo Moreira/AFP via Getty Images)
Conceicao might have higher aspirations than Wolves after his achievements in Portugal, but the 50-year-old is currently out of work and Mendes is known to be a persuasive figure.
Bringing someone in who could regain some defensive solidity is no easy task, but former West Ham manager David Moyes is understandably a name being linked with a move to the West Midlands.
You could make a strong case that Wolves’ squad is better equipped to play in a medium-to-low block and hurt teams in transition, with star man Matheus Cunha being a significant attacking threat within such a system. That approach is largely reflective of Moyes’ style, with his sides typically soaking up pressure before hitting the opposition on the counter-attack. Providing there was sufficient defensive foundation, the attack-minded Nelson Semedo and Rayan Ait-Nouri could thrive in such a system from full-back.
Looking at West Ham’s playstyle in 2022-23 — the season they won the Europa Conference League — there is little that stands out, but a solid showing in both boxes (Chance creation and prevention), coupled with a direct approach going forward (Patient attack, 42 out of 99) is likely to be welcomed by Wolves fans given their disappointing start to the season.
Sticking with British managers, Mark Robins may not have experience in the Premier League but having recently left his role as Coventry City manager, the 54-year-old brings bags of managerial know-how.
In particular, Robins’ experience of using a back three may be suited to Wolves’ squad, providing a stronger defensive foundation while also allowing Semedo and Ait-Nouri to push higher in more familiar attacking roles.
As shown below in his final full season at Coventry, Robins likes to focus on attacking transitions to create lucrative opportunities (2.8 direct attacks per 90), which speaks to the approach that would be ideally suited to Wolves’ squad.
An available manager who would be ready to step straight into the dugout is not to be underestimated. Given the impressive job that Robins did at Coventry across his seven years at the club, a proven track record could bring an element of certainty to a club who are navigating choppy waters at the moment.
(Top photos: Getty Images)
