Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2024

It’s a tale as old as time. New CEO, new general manager, new coach equals massive turnover in the prospect pool of an NHL organization.

Add in the constant urge to trade draft picks for short-term benefit (serving Oilers general managers since 2015) and the state of Edmonton’s prospect pool is at an all-time nadir.

There’s a pulse, though.

Three prospects currently under the Oilers’ control have a real chance to emerge as substantial NHL players, and there are some remnants and roll ends who could join them if everything breaks right. If we include European hopefuls and college men, the numbers grow. There are 11 prospects who project as NHL regulars if everything breaks right in the years to come.

That’s an encouraging total. Let’s start with the names from last year’s top 20 that are no longer in the organization:

• Xavier Bourgault (No. 1) is now in the Ottawa Senators organization.
• Raphael Lavoie (No. 3) was recently claimed on waivers by the Vegas Golden Knights.
• Carter Savoie (No. 11 in 2023) is no longer a member of the organization and is playing in the ECHL.
• Tyler Tullio (No. 12) is in the Buffalo Sabres organization.
• Markus Niemelainen (No. 16) is playing in Germany.
• Ben Gleason (No. 17) is in the Philadelphia Flyers system.

That’s six men who are no longer eligible for the list, and there are several who made the list last December and have been passed by others in the last 12 months.

A summer look at the system showed promise and more progress has been made since then. The criteria for the list is straightforward. Players with over 50 NHL games (25 games for goalies) graduate and are no longer eligible.

Here’s the 2024 winter top 20, with last winter’s rankings in brackets.

1. (NR) RW Matt Savoie, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

Matt Savoie is in one of the best positions of any prospect in any NHL system. If he can avoid being traded in the next few months, there’s a chance he will replace a high-priced veteran on an Oilers skill line. That would mean lining up alongside one of Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl.

Much has to happen between now and then, but his debut AHL season is off to a fantastic start. A recent look at his scoring and outscoring at even strength showed Savoie as a leader in both categories.

Savoie is a smaller forward (5-foot-9, 179 pounds) acquired over the summer from the Buffalo Sabres in the Ryan McLeod trade. He owns a skill set similar to that of former Oilers winger Kailer Yamamoto. The two men delivered similar results as AHL rookies.

Savoie is a sublime puck passer, an effective shooter, has great vision and can make moves in tight quarters against strong checking.

If the listed heights and weights are to be believed, he carries about 25 more pounds than Yamamoto.

The only two questions regarding Savoie are the timing of his NHL-readiness and the Oilers’ commitment to him long-term. He could line up at Rogers Place in Edmonton alongside McDavid or Draisaitl by New Year’s Day, or he could be in another NHL city by summer.

Such is the state of the organization at this time.

2. (NR) RC Sam O’Reilly, London Knights (OHL)

The Oilers made a rare trade into the first round of the 2024 draft for right-handed centre Sam O’Reilly. Why? He’s a perfect-fit skill set for Edmonton’s needs. The London Knights are legendary for developing strong NHL players with good two-way ability, and O’Reilly could be such a player.

O’Reilly is a rugged centre with skill and can play in any game state and in any situation. His attention to detail is unusually strong for such a young player. He impressed at the Penticton Young Stars tournament, scored a goal and hung around longer than expected in preseason and is starring in a full-service role this season with the Knights.

So far in 2024-25, O’Reilly has scored 4-6-10 at even strength, 1-3-4 on the power play and 2-1-3 on the penalty kill. Oilers scouts and analytics must have been convinced that this player would reach his outer marker. In recent days he has delivered more in all areas with the Knights. O’Reilly also has plus trade value, in case that becomes a story at the deadline.

3. (7) LW Maxim Berezkin, Yaroslavl Lokomotiv (KHL)

If Maxim Berezkin was in North America, there’s a good chance he would be playing NHL games right now. He’s 23 and scoring at a 9-14-23 pace in 32 KHL games. His outscoring at even strength in that league has reached impact levels.

Berezkin is 6-foot-2, 212 pounds and an aggressive player who can separate opponents from the puck effectively. He also has soft hands and can use them to set up linemates or cash goals solo.

This is serious stuff. Berezkin is scoring 0.72 points per game and outscoring even strength in one of the world’s best leagues. That kind of ability will absolutely transfer to the NHL. A recent example is New York Islanders winger Maxim Tsyplakov. He scored 0.72 points per game in the KHL last season and is now playing top-six minutes on an Islanders line while posting 1.87 points per 60 at five-on-five.

This is an NHL player.

Berezkin’s skills suggest he isn’t a classic power forward, but can provide size and effective muscle on a skill line. It’s possible that Berezkin is the most NHL-ready prospect in the system. He reaches KHL free agency in the spring of 2025, with the Oilers keenly interested in his next career direction.

4. (2) RD Beau Akey, Barrie Colts (OHL)

Beau Akey is the third Oilers North American prospect with a clear shot at an NHL feature role should he continue to develop as a prospect.

Unlike Savoie and O’Reilly, Akey’s skills (puck mover) are duplicated on the current NHL roster by Evan Bouchard. Akey has an edge in skating ability, and his price point will be low through most of the decade should Edmonton retain him once he arrives in pro hockey.

There was concern about Akey’s ability to re-establish himself in a strong league (OHL is either the best junior league on the planet, or damn close) after missing most of last season. His offence so far (4-12-16 in 22 games) has been strong, especially considering he’s sharing the ice time when the Colts are on the man advantage.

Akey’s skating is going to get him to the NHL, and the only real hurdle will be injury. Fans should watch for the games played total this season, as that is the most important statistic for this player.

He’s signed and will turn pro next fall. Beginning his career in Bakersfield with the Condors is the most likely scenario and he should have success there. Akey is a quality prospect but does have chaos in his game. The Oilers traditionally attempt to iron that area out before trusting a young defenceman in the NHL.

5. (NR) LC William Nicholl, London Knights (OHL)

There’s always some danger in ranking a player like William Nicholl too high. He has very little draft pedigree (seventh round in the 2024 draft) and played in the most scouted league in all of hockey (the OHL).

One year ago, Brock Otten at OHL Prospects (a site that is thorough and accurate) had so little on him he was an afterthought. “The classic London Knights slow play kind of guy. Nicholl is being used in a variety of different situations because he’s playing hard, but a lack of consistent ice time is perhaps masking the kind of upside he might possess. OHL rookie, so we don’t have a ton to base it on either. Curious to see how he looks down the stretch” wrote Otten.

Why is he ranked in the top five? Two reasons. First, his scoring levels early this season (10-15-25 in 25 games) are exceptional for any player his age (he’s 18). A total of 19 even-strength points tells us that he’s having an impact in the most challenging game state. Nicholl is being zoomed by older high-skill players on his line but is contributing.

The other reason for the ranking has to do with his deployment last season (mentioned by Otten at the time). Nicholl was used sparingly by London, typical of a strong team with enormous depth. Nicholl was a “draft and follow” because scouts couldn’t be sure if he would impact the game when finally given playing time.

The ranking is high and could look out of place five years from now. However, the evidence so far can’t be ignored. Nicholl could be a significant draft steal by Edmonton.

6. (NR) RC Noah Philp, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

Philp wasn’t on last winter’s top 20 because he took the year off from pro hockey. In the summer of 2024, I ranked him No. 9 based on that 2022-23 AHL season. In that first pro season, the right-handed centre delivered a 55 percent goal share and earned more playing time as the season rolled along. Eventually, he would score 19-18-37 in 70 games, impressing the Oilers and landing just shy of his NHL debut.

This fall, not much was expected from Philp. He missed an entire year, so the expectation was a slow start and something close to normal by Christmas. Instead, he blew the doors off at training camp, earned an early-season recall (making his NHL debut) and continued his solid play in Bakersfield this fall.

He has scored 5-3-8 in 15 games and owns a 12-8 (60 percent) goal share at even strength. Without him, the Condors are 27-33 (45 percent).

Philp is NHL-ready, there’s a spot for him on the Oilers roster (No. 4 centre) and he will be an upgrade on Derek Ryan in foot speed and physical play. Philp lacks the experience offered by Ryan, and so far it’s been enough to keep the younger man in the minors. That will change soon.

7. (4) G Olivier Rodrigue, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

This is the third season in a row Olivier Rodrigue has delivered top-flight goaltending for the AHL Condors. Rodrigue was a higher draft pick (second round in 2018) and has proven himself across a broad AHL canvas. Here’s the evidence:

This season is his most impressive, owing to a career-best save percentage and a faltering backup.

In 2022-23, the Condors’ other option (Calvin Pickard, .912) matched Rodrigue’s performance. Last season, Jack Campbell (.918) finished with a marginally better percentage. This season, Collin Delia (.898) is well off the pace.

Rodrigue has earned an NHL shot. He should get it in the next 12 months.

8. (5) RD Max Wanner, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

Max Wanner is a physical, shutdown defenceman who played a feature role for the Condors as a rookie in 2024-25. His even-strength goal share (52-42, 55 percent) was superior to the rest of Bakersfield’s blue (52 percent).

This season, the Condors have more experience at right defence (Josh Brown, Phil Kemp, Connor Carrick, recently acquired Ronnie Attard) and Wanner is playing a lesser role based on results and the eye test. His even-strength goal share (11-10, 52 percent) compared to the overall results (39-41, 48 percent) is still positive, but the organization is using him in more of a pure shutdown role.

Wanner has a clear lane to the NHL if his foot speed is deemed satisfactory. Most prospects of his type sink or swim based on mobility. Wanner’s work ethic may allow him to improve in this area (a la Vincent Desharnais during his time in Bakersfield) and emerge as an NHL player.

9. (NR) LW Roby Jarventie,  Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

If he were healthy, Roby Jarventie would have played 50 NHL games long ago and wouldn’t qualify for this list.

As it is, the winger has just seven NHL appearances at age 22. No one doubts his ability, and he has a range of skills (plus shooter and passer) along with aggressive play. Viewing Jarventie is a pleasure; he’s an intelligent, effective player when on the ice.

Jarventie has played in just two games for the Condors, scoring two points and outscoring opponents 2-1 at even strength. In his most recent 64 AHL games, he’s scored 25-27-52 and is a constant concern for opponents.

It all comes down to health for Jarventie. If he can find a way to stay in the lineup, he projects as an effective middle-six winger with enough skill to move up the depth chart when required.

10. (NR) G Eemil Vinni, HIFK U20 (SM-Sarja)

Eemill Vinni, like Rodrigue, is an example of the Oilers investing in goaltenders earlier in recent drafts. The Oilers plucked Vinni in the second round of the 2024 draft, based on size (6-foot-3, 187 pounds), quick feet and athleticism.

Vinni’s 2024-25 season is off to a strong start, as he appears to be taking over more of the load for HIFK U20. His .905 save percentage, 2.00 goals-against average and 4-2-0 record are superior to his fellow goaltenders on the team.

Corey Pronman at The Athletic rates him highly, saying “he has the quick twitch of an NHL goalie in his lower half. He makes a lot of difficult saves moving across the crease and when he challenges shooters he can explode out of the net.”

11. (13) RC Matt Copponi, Boston University (Hockey-East)

Matt Copponi transferred from Merrimack College to Boston University and in doing so is playing less of a feature role.

Despite the lower point total (he’s on pace to finish about five points shy of last season’s 30 points), Copponi is one of those players who combines good positioning with great stickhandling to create and score goals. He has a sixth sense around the net. Right place, right time.

There isn’t anything about him that suggests he’ll bull rush his way to the NHL, but his touch around the net and intelligence in finding opportunity and execution are on display at every turn.

He’s a very good player without being so fast we can list it as a strength, or so big he can’t be ignored. It’s easy to miss Copponi, right up until he makes a brilliant deke and cashes. He does it consistently.

12. (8) LW Shane Lachance, Boston University (Hockey East)

Shane Lachance could be undervalued on this year’s list, as the balance between increased offence and advanced age for his quality of competition is difficult.

There’s no doubt Lachance, a power forward with skill, has advanced as a prospect since arriving at Boston University. He has earned increased playing time and is on pace for a 20-goal, 50-point season in 2024-25.

That’s exceptional production.

It’s also true there are foot speed issues and Lachance has been playing with talented linemates in his two Boston University seasons. That skews the view.

For this ranking, Lachance is just outside the top 10 based on his skill set having high value to NHL teams. He’s big and can score, that’s always a winning formula for a prospect.

13. (NR) G Samuel Jonsson, Bofors IK (Allsvenskan)

Samuel Jonsson is a prototype modern goaltender (6-foot-3, 185 pounds) playing in a sneaky good Swedish league (Allsvenskan). The SHL, Sweden’s top league, mostly houses older veterans and famous foreign players. The Allsvenskan is a league where brilliant Swedish youth learn the pro game by playing against strong competition.

Jonsson is such a player, and his .938 save percentage in the Allsvenskan this season is both mind-boggling and leads the league among goalies with eight or more games played. There are other factors (Bofors is a strong team) but Jonsson has earned his first appearance on the top-20 list with an impressive showing early in 2024-25

14. (6) RW Matvey Petrov, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

Matvey Petrov has size, skill and more two-way acumen than expected through his first 70 AHL games (over two seasons). A year ago, he had trouble finding ice time with a plethora of wingers his age (Dylan Holloway, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Carter Savoie) and he’s having a similar issue this year.

The difference this season is Petrov is losing time to more heralded prospects (Matt Savoie) and unheralded prospects (Daniel D’Amato) and that’s a real concern.

So far in his minor-league career, Petrov has scored 11 goals in 70 AHL games. This is his second year in the AHL, the expectation is a spike in production that has yet to come. There’s plenty of season left, but on the final night of November, it was D’Amato who occupied left wing on the second line (with quality centre Lane Pederson) and Petrov who was on the third line with Jayden Grubbe.

Petrov is in some trouble as an Oilers prospect, despite real skill. He has the look of a tweener as we approach Christmas 2024.

15. (NR) LD Paul Fischer, Notre Dame (Big Ten)

Paul Fischer is a mobile defender best known for effective defensive coverage and dependable performances. Fischer is slated for Team USA at the world juniors per Corey Pronman at The Athletic and should have no trouble jumping into pro hockey when the time comes.

Fischer is playing his sophomore season with Notre Dame, so could delay turning pro until the summer of 2027. Based on the Oilers’ needs, and Fischer’s mature approach to defence, there’s a good chance management will attempt to sign him earlier.

16. (No. 15) RC Jayden Grubbe, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

Jayden Grubbe is the first forward on the list who projects as a pure bottom-six contributor should he arrive in the NHL down the line.

He plays a rugged style, can help protect the house and suppress opposition offence and excels in a utility role.

Questions about him include speed, his ability to stay in the middle (right-handed centres have extreme value) and posting sufficient offence.

In observing Condors games, Grubbe is noticeable in a good way. He’s a little underwater as an even-strength outscorer, but the entire Condors team is lacking in this area.

He scored eight goals last season but has yet to find the range this year. Offence may decide his NHL future.

17.  (No. 9) LD Nikita Yevseyev, Kazan-Ak Bars (KHL)

Nikita Yevseyev plummets down the rankings this year, mostly due to a lack of usage in the KHL. Over the last three seasons, he’s playing less and getting older in the Russian league and it’s hard to measure progress under these circumstances.

It’s difficult to suggest progress based on these numbers. It’s also true he is playing more in the Russian second league over the last two seasons. These are concerning trends.

Still, this is a player who is just 20. Yevseyev has ability, but the opportunity to progress and improve may not be available to him at this time.

Ranking him here comes with an admission: He could be badly undervalued at this number. Yevseyev is a shutdown type on an NHL prospect depth chart with many such players, and that also impacts his ranking.

18. (20) LD Luca Munzenberger, New Hampshire (Hockey East)

Luca Munzenberger is an underrated player due to the fact it’s almost impossible to track him. He is mobile, has size, can close a gap with aplomb and plays big minutes for his team at even strength and on the penalty kill. That has value.

Even more, he’s absolutely ready to turn pro and could help the Condors as early as April 2025, possibly finding his way to the NHL from there.

Munzenberger’s five points in 10 games this season represent an offensive breakthrough. His appeal to the Oilers comes on the defensive side of the puck.

Munzenberger’s college career has obscured his value. He’s the poster player for the need, across all of hockey, to track and make public time on ice and even-strength goal shares. That’s where his value lies and it’s not available to the public. He’s a player, based on speed and coverage ability.

19. (NR) RD Albin Sundin, Frolunda (SHL)

Albin Sundin is another defence-first player who has played at a high level in Sweden in the last two seasons. He’s a long shot because of offensive limitations but has the kind of resume that can develop over time.

Edmonton drafted a pile of Swedish defencemen during the 2010s and passed on one of the best (Erik Gustafsson) while using a valuable pick on Oscar Klefbom (who delivered on promise until his career came to a sudden and early end).

Sundin is a young defenceman who has advanced quickly. He has 36 games in Sweden’s best league on his resume at 20; that’s a very good indicator.

20. (10) LC James Hamblin, Bakersfield Condors (AHL)

James Hamblin falls down the list due to increased quality at the centre position across the roster. Other issues include injury and that he has now played in 41 NHL games while failing to deliver offensively.

Hamblin has enough talent to be recalled to the NHL at any time, and that has value. Among the names ahead of him, Philp has more offence and can deliver size and win battles along the wall.

Hamblin’s possible roles on the NHL team have been reduced. He remains a fine AHL player and a worthy NHL recall.

Winter 2024 top 20 prospects

(Photo of Matt Savoie: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)