STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — James Franklin gathered his team Saturday night in the locker room and quickly informed them of the good news and bad. What was supposed to be a week of rest and recovery with some practices mixed in — highlighted by an off day on Sunday for players and staff — would now be spent preparing to play No. 1 Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.
“It’s changed dramatically,” Franklin said Sunday of Penn State’s plan for the week. “We always have to be prepared for all these different scenarios and we were. Right after the game, I told them we’re ready to go. We’re practicing on Sunday. … It’s back to a normal week schedule for us and an in-season week schedule.”
Then, Franklin paused as he thought about the week ahead.
Wednesday is the start of the early signing period. A day that’s typically filled with a war-room-type atmosphere as staffers announce the new signing class will instead be centered around Franklin taking about an hour-long break from game planning to handle it. The assistant coaches will continue meeting and prepping for the biggest game of the season.
Across the country, Dan Lanning and the Ducks capped an undefeated regular season Saturday night by beating Washington but had the last two weeks to prepare for the logistics of whoever they’d play in the conference championship game. Oregon will fly to Indianapolis on Friday similar to what it did when it played at Purdue in October, Lanning said.
“We utilized a lot of time in our bye week to deal with the chaos that exists in this week,” Lanning said.
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This Sunday, just hours after the conference championship game ends, the College Football Playoff bracket will be set. Then, on Monday, the transfer portal window opens.
December madness is here and while playing in the conference championship game is the envy of many teams, there will be a lot of long nights and much caffeine consumed in football buildings across the country this week.
“This is why we come to Penn State to play in games like this and have opportunities like this,” Penn State quarterback Drew Allar said Saturday night. “We’re not gonna take it for granted.”
Here’s what I think I know about Penn State headed into championship weekend:
1. Penn State is playing its best football right now
Minutes after the loss last month to Ohio State a theme emerged. Players said they wanted to win out and show in the remaining four games that this was one of the most improved teams in the country.
They’d learn from the loss. The offense’s inability to gain a yard against one of the best defenses in the country would make sure Penn State emphasized improving the run game. They’d think players, not plays, and make sure tight end Tyler Warren would have the ball in his hands however many times necessary for Penn State to win. The defense would need to continue getting as much production from defensive ends Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton as possible. A special teams unit that hadn’t cost Penn State any games would need to elevate and find a way to make a game-altering play.
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All of this has materialized in the past month.
Since losing to Ohio State, the Nittany Lions outscored Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland 154 to 48. Running back Nick Singleton, slowed by injuries throughout this season, has rounded back into top form. He looks and says he feels as good as can be expected at this point in the season.
“It’s pretty obvious that Nick is back as close to 100 percent as he’s been in a long time,” Franklin said. “You see the burst and the acceleration on tape.”
Warren, whether catching, throwing or running with the football, has been fed up and down the field just like how one of the best players in the sport should have been highlighted in the biggest moment of the biggest game. Carter has been playing lights out and finished the season with 10 sacks.
Sitting on upset alert last weekend in Minneapolis, Penn State executed a fake punt which was the gutsy, game-altering play it needed. Every box has been checked.
Tyler Warren’s 978 receiving yards ranks second-best among FBS tight ends. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)
2. The Warren factor will be front and center in Indianapolis and so will Andy Kotelnicki’s scheme
Franklin said part of what made Warren’s regular season so successful is that everyone knew he’d be the focal point and yet no team figured out how to stop him. That’s also a credit to Kotelnicki and the creative ways he’s used Warren in the offense. Oregon is well aware of both details.
While Penn State was just beginning Oregon prep when Franklin met with reporters on Sunday, Lanning said it’s clear to the Ducks that Warren has been a matchup issue for many teams.
“I’m excited to hop in and dive into that plan and try and figure out how we can neutralize him,” Lanning said. “I think they do as good a job of any at utilizing their personnel. I think their scheme is really difficult to plan for offensively so that’ll be a fun challenge for us and our defensive staff.”
In the past 18 games, Warren has at least one reception of 14-plus yards. His 17 touchdown receptions are tied for eighth-most in program history, a mark he shares with wide receiver Allen Robinson. Expect to see Warren back in Indianapolis for the NFL Scouting Combine in a few months.
Lanning said every week he watches cutups of explosive plays around college football. When going through film over the last few years, he saw various plays from Kotelnicki-led offenses.
“You watch and see unique formations pop up whether that was in his time at Kansas or now at Penn State, you see some unique ways to use personnel and create tough looks for defenses,” Lanning said. “He’s a guy that has a lot of smoke and mirrors that make it tough and you have to have great eye discipline, but explosive plays I think are one of the biggest things that stands out. He consistently creates explosive plays in this offensive scheme.”
Penn State’s worst outing as an offense this season came against Ohio State. Receivers struggled to get open while a turnover in the end zone and a goal line stop told the story. This is a chance to see what this offense and its most versatile playmaker can do in another marquee matchup.
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3. Oregon is a 3.5-point favorite, but …
There are some thin margins statistically that separate these two teams. Oregon averages 448.5 yards per game. Penn State isn’t far behind with 442.8. Penn State is fourth nationally in total defense (266.8 ypg), while Oregon is seventh (283.8). Penn State is plus-7 in the turnover margin and Oregon is plus-5. Perhaps the biggest discrepancy is Oregon’s passing production, which is 14th nationally, compared to Penn State’s, which is 40th.
In the preseason, Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel was among Heisman Trophy favorites. Now, there’s an argument to be made that Warren should end up in New York City as one of the Heisman finalists while Gabriel doesn’t. Does Penn State get a big-time performance from Allar in this game? Is he the best quarterback on the field?
There will be plenty of extra sets of eyeballs on this game and it’s a valuable opportunity for NFL talent evaluators to see how both of these quarterbacks handle a big stage against two talented defenses.
Penn State’s roster has enough star power to pull off an upset. I think that’s an important detail in matchups like this. Carter, Warren, Allar, Singleton and Dennis-Sutton all fall into the game-wrecker category. The best rosters often are carried by these types of high-end talents. Penn State will need them to step up again.
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4. Expect to hear a lot of arguing about the best path to the Playoff
Which contender has the most favorable path and whether or not playing in a conference championship game is a positive or a negative will be debated all week. With a win, the conference champion secures a first-round bye and doesn’t play again until Dec. 31 or Jan. 1. With a loss, the Big Ten runner-up could potentially end up with the fifth seed, a coveted spot even if it means hosting the 12th-seeded team in a first-round Playoff game at home on Dec. 20 or 21.
Both head coaches were ready for such questions. Franklin, after outlining mixed feelings about a conference championship game in the preseason, said his team needs to embrace the opportunity to play for a first-round bye. Lanning offered a much more blunt assessment.
“Who cares? Put the ball out and let’s go play football,” Lanning said. “You line up against who they put in the bracket. At the end of the day, you gotta win your games to get to the end. Obviously, there’s a benefit to having more time to prepare for an opponent and you should have that benefit if you win your conference championship game so there’s definitely a huge advantage there putting yourself a step closer to the end-all goal.”
Now, is there a scenario where a loss in the Big Ten Championship Game sends Penn State on the road in the first round? That’s a pressing question and the biggest drawback of the Nittany Lions putting it all on the line against the top team in the country.
If Oregon wins by a large margin there’s another data point that the committee will need to consider before the bracket is revealed on Sunday afternoon. Should Penn State get penalized for playing, but perhaps getting exposed, in the conference championship game, the value of that extra game will be again highlighted. Because this is a new format it’s unclear how the Playoff selection committee will evaluate the losers of the conference championship games, but I still struggle to see Penn State dropping out of hosting a first-round game even with a loss (the Nittany Lions would be 11-2).
We don’t have anything else to compare it to, but how 10-2 Ohio State with losses to Oregon and Michigan — but a win against Penn State — factors in is anyone’s guess.
(Top photo: Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)
