By Mike DeFabo, Jeff Zrebiec, Paul Dehner Jr. and Zac Jackson
Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North writers gather for a roundtable discussion on trending topics, the best players and the biggest factors in determining which teams can survive this division. Here’s our Week 13 Thanksgiving edition.
We’re not afraid of a cheesy holiday theme here at Whiparound Headquarters. With that in mind, is the team you cover extra thankful for a certain player or group of players? Or would you rather call out a bunch of turkeys for derailing things?
Mike DeFabo (Pittsburgh Steelers): When the Steelers signed safety DeShon Elliott in free agency and traded for cornerback Donte Jackson, it was easy for those moves to go under the radar. But as the season has unfolded, Elliott and Jackson have proven to be significant upgrades, rounding out the defense in a meaningful way. Jackson leads the Steelers with four interceptions, matching a career high, and has been an upgrade over a 33-year-old Patrick Peterson. Meanwhile, Elliott has been the Steelers’ most impactful safety. He’s second on the team with 72 tackles and has forced two fumbles, recovered three and intercepted a pass. While the stars often get the credit, these two new defensive backs are a big reason Pittsburgh’s defense ranks fourth in points allowed per game (16.9). The Steelers have gone from a good defense with a few great players to a well-rounded unit without an obvious weak spot.
Offseason additions Donte Jackson (left) and DeShon Elliott (right) have helped the Steelers’ defense hold opponents to the fourth-fewest points per game. (Nick Cammett / Getty Images)
Jeff Zrebiec (Baltimore Ravens): I’d love to get cute and creative here, but that wouldn’t be playing to my strengths. And really, how can you say anything other than the Ravens are thankful they have Lamar Jackson on their side? He’s a two-time MVP in the middle of the best season of his career, and his play in Pittsburgh was a blip. We’re in Week 13, and Jackson leads the NFL in passing yards and passer rating, and he’s tied for first in touchdown passes. He also leads all quarterbacks with 599 rushing yards. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is 27 to 3, and all three of his picks should have been caught by the intended receiver. Jackson is in the unenviable position where nothing he does in the regular season is going to matter much to his critics. He’ll again be judged by his postseason performance. The Ravens are thankful for the growth, maturity and consistency their star quarterback has shown this season.
Paul Dehner Jr. (Cincinnati Bengals): Never miss a chance to give thanks for Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. Watching these two work weekly is the epitome of excitement in the NFL. The Bengals will pay that price of admission to Chase next offseason, but even as the sky is falling with turkeys around them like it’s the “WKRP in Cincinnati” turkey drop, they’re arguably the best show going right now.
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Zac Jackson (Cleveland Browns): For as turkey-ish as the Browns have been in what was billed as a glorious feast of a season, the current feeling has to be of disappointment. Had the Browns just made a quarterback change and acknowledged mistakes a couple of weeks earlier, they’d have a playoff pulse. They remain thankful for the likes of Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward and some others, but the focus is on crucial decisions in the months ahead — and Jameis Winston potentially continuing his redemption tour this season. In a big-picture sense, this thing can still go many different ways.
The Ravens and Steelers each have eight wins; Baltimore has five games left, and Pittsburgh has six. How many is it going to take to win the division? For the remaining optimists in Cincinnati, how many is it going to take to earn an AFC wild-card spot?
DeFabo: The Steelers’ final six games are against the Bengals, Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs and Bengals again. Let’s say for this exercise they split with the Bengals, avenge their loss to the Browns and lose to the Ravens in Baltimore. That gets the Steelers to 10 wins with a 3-3 divisional record. The Chiefs and Eagles are the other two games. A split there would be a best-case scenario and push the Steelers to about 11 wins. That might not be enough. Even if the Ravens lose to the Eagles this week and the Houston Texans on Christmas (which I’m not predicting), they’d still get to 11 wins if they can beat the New York Giants, Steelers and Browns. I’m predicting the Ravens to go 3-2 or 4-1 down the stretch. A 12-win season should be enough to win the division, and 11 wins could do it with tiebreakers. It’s starting to look like the Steelers will have to beat the Ravens again and/or sweep the Bengals if they want to win the AFC North.
Zrebiec: If you get to 12 wins, I think that would be a lock. Given how many difficult games the Ravens and Steelers still have on their schedules, there’s probably a decent chance that 11-6 would be enough to finish atop the North. But I’m going to say the winner eventually finishes 12-5. As for the Bengals, I’ve thought all along that the last wild-card spot could be filled by a 9-8 team. However, the Denver Broncos winning two straight and the Miami Dolphins rattling off three in a row probably makes that less likely. I wouldn’t discount the 5-7 Indianapolis Colts either, even though they’ve stunk lately. Cincinnati’s remaining schedule isn’t rigorous. I don’t think the Los Angeles Chargers or Ravens/Steelers will come back to the pack enough, and I think either the Broncos or Dolphins finish with 10 wins, which would mean 9-8 isn’t cutting it for Zac Taylor’s Bengals.
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Dehner: Twelve wins the division. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are too good to think one of them doesn’t hit that mark. More than likely the winner of the second game between those two on Dec. 21 ends up the winner. As for the Bengals, even the most optimistic of fans dressing up in Bengals costumes every week have a tough time seeing them pull this off. They have to go 5-1, at minimum, and the loss can’t come to Denver. That would probably mean sweeping the Steelers.
Jackson: As the guy who’s covered three playoff teams in 25 seasons, I’ll look up here and mostly just nod and agree. I think the Ravens will get to 12, and I think they’ll win the division. On a total gut feeling, I’ll guess that the Bengals end up missing the playoffs by one game as punishment for the number of games they gave away in the first half of the season.
Whether it’s chasing a big trophy or just finishing with more wins than losses, what’s the current vibe on the team you cover? Do you feel a memorable and productive December coming?
DeFabo: Memorable and productive aren’t the words I’d use. Physical. Taxing. Exhausting. Trying. Illuminating. Those are probably better adjectives for a home stretch full of AFC matchups, short weeks and Super Bowl contenders. The Steelers should make the playoffs, and if they can get through the three-games-in-11-days gauntlet healthy, they’ve got a shot to win their first playoff game since 2016. Whether the offense looks more like it did during the first three starts with Russell Wilson or the two recent outings will determine how much further they advance.
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Zrebiec: Things were feeling pretty tenuous for the Ravens after they started a tough three-game stretch against the Steelers, Chargers and Eagles with a stinker in Pittsburgh. The Ravens looked tired and beat up, as you’d probably expect for a team with a Week 14 bye. The offense was starting to show some cracks after carrying the team for so long. Roquan Smith was hurt. There was a West Coast trip and a matchup with a hot team filled with ex-Ravens players and coaches. Baltimore fell behind 10-0 and then responded to get a nice road win. There’s a maturity about the Ravens where they understand it’s a week-to-week league. They’ve put themselves in a decent position, but their story will be told in January and possibly February. The players accept that. They also understand they need to play with more consistency and make fewer mistakes to get where they want to go.
Dehner: The ping-pong tables are back in the locker room! The international symbol for being juiceless and out of ideas. They are searching for ways to keep the energy up for this group. They’ve been in must-win mode all season and suffered one of the most soul-sucking strings of heartbreaking defeats you can dial up. Get out the paddles, but not for ping pong — these cats are on life support.
Jackson: Considering they’ve defeated the Ravens and Steelers, the Browns’ current mood is fine. Last week’s win had some magical and memorable elements, but it leaves us to wonder (more) about the future of the team as a whole, Nick Chubb and the quarterback position. I think an important December is coming for several facets of the organization, but I can’t say that “memorable and productive” are probable outcomes. Maybe winning a couple more division games would change the overall mood.
Weekend prediction time. Can the Bengals score a huge divisional win? Can the Browns play spoiler again? Will Ravens-Eagles be as good as advertised?
DeFabo: Before the Steelers squared off against the Ravens, many were wondering if this would be the time the old AFC North rivalry would turn into a shootout. Instead, Pittsburgh once again proved it had Jackson’s number and somehow won another game without scoring a touchdown. I don’t think the Steelers can follow that same script here. Given the way Burrow is playing, Pittsburgh’s offense will face its biggest test to score points. Considering how the Steelers have fared in the red zone lately, I’m taking the Bengals in Cincinnati. The Ravens seem to lose games only against the Steelers or inferior opponents. The Eagles are neither of those. I like Baltimore in a thriller. Because the Browns already won their Super Bowl by beating the Steelers, I say they’ll return to mediocrity against the Broncos.
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Zrebiec: I think I’ve picked the Bengals in just about every big game they’ve had this year, so at some point, they lose the benefit of the doubt. Taking Mike Tomlin’s team after a loss is always a safe proposition, so that’s what I’ll do in a game where I think a good number of points will be scored. I’m still not sold on the Broncos, but it seems like the Browns don’t have a whole lot of urgency when they’re not facing an AFC North opponent. I’ll take Denver in a close one. I’m not sure I’ve gotten more than three or four Ravens games right all year. When I take them to win, they lose. And vice versa. So Ravens fans will probably be happy to know that I think the Eagles will win Sunday. I think both offenses will come to play, but Philadelphia’s defense is much easier to trust than Baltimore’s.
Dehner: The Bengals are the team that always finds a way to lose. They’re facing the Steelers, a team that always seems to find a way to win. Kings of the one-score loss versus kings of the one-score win. Outside of the wackiness of the NFL, this screams Steelers 24, Bengals 23. Elsewhere, the Browns come back to earth and the Eagles take advantage of the Baltimore defense just enough to squeeze out an instant classic between two heavyweights.
Jackson: My inclination is to pick the Ravens to win big, but I’m a little hesitant about jumping in front of the Saquon Barkley train. So I’ll land in the middle and guess a big game-management error by Eagles coach Nick Sirianni helps the Ravens win, something like 24-21. I think the Browns will lose a bit of a low-scoring snoozer in Denver, and I think Burrow will go crazy in a big win for the Bengals.
(Top photo: Matt Kelley / Getty Images)
