Now that we’re five weeks into the NBA season, I want to talk about the biggest outperformers. Which players have provided the most fantasy value thus far, relative to their Average Draft Positions (ADP)? And which players deserve some recognition for breaking certain narratives about themselves?
Here are my 22 biggest outperformers of the early season.
LaMelo Ball, CHA (ADP from NFBKC leagues: 22.7)
Why did people avoid LaMelo on draft day?
1.) He can’t stay healthy (an average of 29 games played over the past two seasons).
2.) He’s a major drag on your FG% (41.9% FG over those two seasons).
Well, 17 games in, he’s yet to miss a game, while shooting 44% from the field. You might not think 44% is that impressive, but remember that he’s making 4.5 threes on 12.7 attempts per game. His 2-point percentage is currently better than Luka Doncic’s, and he’s probably had a higher degree of difficulty on his shots than anyone in the league.
Jalen Williams, OKC (38.1)
He’s pumped up his scoring and assists a little bit while maintaining excellent shooting percentages, but that part hasn’t been that surprising. It’s the 6.5 rebounds, 2.2 steals and 1.0 blocks per game (after just 4.0, 1.1, and 0.6, respectively, last season) that are blowing J-Dub’s fantasy value through the roof.
Nikola Vucevic, CHI (54.9)
As an offensive-minded center, there was cause for concern after Vooch shot just 29% on threes and 55% on twos last season. Now 34 years old, was last season the start of a sharp decline? Not at all. He’s averaging 20.5 points, 9.7 boards, 3.2 assists, 1.0 blocks and 2.1 threes per game, while shooting a robust 46% on threes and 63% on twos.
Jordan Poole, WAS (71.1)
Something I wrote about Poole over seven months ago:
“One thing I know about fantasy breakout seasons is that the only thing worse than wrongly predicting a breakout year, is seeing that same player have his breakout season the following year, but you had completely written him off by then.”
I’m glad I drafted Poole a few times this season. All of his stats have improved dramatically. Did you give him another chance, or had you written him off completely?
OG Anunoby, NYK (80.7)
While others were aggressively going after Mikal Bridges (ADP of 58.5), I opted to wait for OG a couple of rounds later instead. That move has paid off. He’s been ultra-efficient (19.1 ppg on 52% FG, 42% 3PT, 83% FT), while bringing it defensively (2.2 stocks per game).
Jakob Poeltl, TOR (84.3)
A career year at the age of 29? Sure, why not? Poeltl’s 16.2 points, 12.2 boards and 64% FT are obliterating his previous career-highs of 13.5 points, 9.3 rebounds and 59% FT (okay, that last improvement isn’t much to brag about).
Zach LaVine, CHI (84.7)
If you’re one of the many who’ve been dumping on LaVine over the past year — “he’s selfish, injury-prone, inefficient, a poor leader, can’t get along with others…” — you might have to eat some crow. Not only is his effective FG% currently a sparkling 62.2% (that ranks him 15th, ahead of Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Stephen Curry), but he’s mended his relationship with head coach Billy Donovan and bought into his role as a veteran leader.
Tyler Herro, MIA (88.4)
Herro has seamlessly taken over as Miami’s go-to player on offense, with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo mere afterthoughts now. His points, assists, threes and FG% are all at career-high levels, and he’s yet to miss a game so far. The result? He’s easily been a Top 40 player.
John Collins, UTA (106.8)
What a wild season it’s been for Collins. In the season opener he played just 18 minutes, netting 11 points and 5 rebounds. If you drafted him and dropped him after that game, you’ve probably been kicking yourself. He’s posted 19.2 points, 9.2 boards, 2.7 assists and 1.6 steals on 59% FG and 97% FT in the month of November. Lauri who?
Josh Hart, NYK (123.3)
Hart is a prime example of why you shouldn’t put too much stock into preseason stats, as he refused to shoot the ball in those games, scoring just 2 points in 90 minutes played. The real season has been a different story. He’s scoring 14.1 ppg on over 60% FG, thanks to a league-leading 75% on 2-pointers. Only Hart, Jokic, Giannis and Domantas Sabonis are averaging 8.6-plus rebounds and 5.8-plus assists per game.
Dennis Schroder, BKN (128.1)
This is probably the closest we’ve seen to the FIBA version of Schroder in the NBA. Sure, he’s scored more points per game before, but this season he’s scoring efficiently both inside and out (a career-high 41% on threes), setting up his teammates (a career-high 6.5 apg), and limiting his turnovers.
Chris Paul, SAS (128.7)
Surely, 39-year-old point guards aren’t supposed to be doing what Paul is doing this season. His 8.5 assists average currently ranks seventh, and he’s the only player in the top 13 in that category who is playing less than 30 minutes per game. CP3 has also made better than 38% of his threes and 60% of his twos, and he has yet to miss a free throw.
Cameron Johnson, BKN (131.0)
Apparently the presence of Mikal Bridges and Brooklyn’s previous coaches were holding Johnson back the past year and a half, because he’s blossomed under new coach Jordi Fernandez. Not only are Johnson’s 18.3 points and 3.3 threes career highs, but he’s shooting nearly 50% FG, with an effective FG% on par with Kevin Durant.
Dyson Daniels, ATL (148.9)
It’s been quite some time since we’ve witnessed a season like Daniels is having. In fact, the only other time a player has averaged 3-plus assists, 3-plus steals and 1-plus block per game was Michael Jordan in 1987-88. Now, Jordan also averaged 35.0 ppg on 53.5% FG that season, but we won’t hold that against “The Great Barrier Thief.”
Norman Powell, LAC (149.5)
We knew that Powell was a solid scorer, but jumping from 13.9 points and 2.2 threes per game to 23.3 points and 3.9 threes per game at age 31 is quite surprising. And his 49% shooting on 3-pointers must be impressive even to Steve Kerr and Hubert Davis.
Tari Eason, HOU (167.8)
Eason is the first player on this list who has yet to start a game this season, but from a fantasy perspective, Eason has outplayed roughly 60% of the league’s regular starters. The 6.4 rebounds and 3.3 stocks per game are where he does most of his damage, and it translates to an impressive 10.1 boards, 3.4 steals and 1.7 blocks per 36 minutes.
Payton Pritchard, BOS (184.6)
Like Eason, my man Pritchard has yet to start a game, but that doesn’t seem to matter. He’s still putting up numbers that plenty of starting guards would be happy with — 14.8 points, 2.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 3.5 threes and 1.0 turnovers per game, on 47% FG, 43% 3PT, 87% FT.
Bennedict Mathurin, IND (185.1)
Pacers coach Rick Carlisle challenged Mathurin in the offseason to become more impactful on the defensive end, and he’s taken those words to heart, nearly doubling his defensive rebounds per game (5.6, up from 2.9). Of course, he’s still a scorer at heart, and he’s been lights out on that end, shooting 49% FG, 40% 3PT and 85% FT.
Christian Braun, DEN (191.1)
Many thought the Nuggets were going to miss Kentavious Caldwell-Pope immensely, but Braun has more than filled his shoes thus far. Not only has he really improved his defensive numbers, but he’s more than doubled his scoring average (16.1 ppg, up from 7.3), while shooting a sweet 57% FG and 47% 3PT.
Santi Aldama, MEM (198.9)
In 11 starts this season, Aldama is averaging a solid 12.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists on 44% FG. But in seven games as a reserve, he’s been even better, with 13.3 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.9 assists on 53% FG. That’s mighty impressive given that he’s played nearly five fewer minutes per game when coming off the bench.
Jared McCain, PHI (Only drafted in 32% of leagues)
Even in my 300 player deep drafts, McCain would sometimes go undrafted (I drafted him several times in those leagues, but I also passed on him plenty). Now he’s the leading Rookie of the Year candidate, and he’s only scratching the surface of his potential.
Ty Jerome, CLE (Only drafted in 2% of leagues)
Let’s end this column with the man currently leading the league in 3-point percentage at a blistering 54% 3PT (he also trails only Daniel Gafford in effective FG%). Jerome is a proven playmaker, so his 3.8 assists per game off the bench aren’t that surprising, but his 12.6 points and 1.3 steals in 19 mpg translate to 23.8 points and 2.4 steals per 36 minutes. He’s been a big part of the Cavs’ success this season, so let’s give Jerome his flowers!
(Top photo of Jared McCain: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
