This point can’t be made enough as we head toward a College Football Playoff with four teams from the second-best conference and three from the best: The more bloated a league gets, the less its collective might matters.
So, yeah, the SEC has the most quality teams as usual. But it is down this season in terms of elite teams. It might not have one at all. It has savaged itself. And even with a Playoff bloated to 12, the largest collection of pretty good to really good doesn’t win you anything.
Tuesday’s rankings tell us the Big Ten is in position to land No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 4 Penn State and, yes, No. 10 Indiana in the field. The SEC is in good shape with No. 3 Texas, No. 7 Georgia and No. 8 Tennessee.
Alabama (down from No. 7 to No. 13), Ole Miss (down from No. 9 to No. 14) and Texas A&M (down from No. 15 to No. 20) blew it Saturday. So the Big Ten gets more. This is fair. It’s a non-vintage SEC, and though drums will beat loudly between now and Dec. 8 for three-loss SEC teams over Indiana and a second ACC team, a three-loss SEC team should have access only with more upsets.
(Which are, of course, darn near assured.)
In a sport built on arguments, few polarize or inspire passion more than the greatness of SEC football. This argument gets sullied by those who think recent national championships or draft hauls should matter to the 13 folks on the committee, and by those who think SEC quality is an ESPN fabrication. Have you seen the Big Ten’s media rights deal?
The SEC has the most talent and resourced programs. But this season it doesn’t have a dominant team.
Texas may end up qualifying, but a 30-15 home loss to Georgia dissents. Georgia may yet turn out that way, but a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss lingers. Alabama beat Georgia, too, and has at times reminded of Nick Saban’s Alabama. But Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama just lost 24-3 at Oklahoma, following up previous failures at Vanderbilt and Tennessee.
In all three cases, disappointing quarterback play (to varying degrees) tells some of the story. That’s true of the defense-led Vols as well, though Nico Iamaleava hasn’t received as much help as expected from his offensive line and receivers. But no clear first-round quarterbacks and no clearly elite teams go hand in hand.
There’s no strong argument for a fourth SEC team right now, other than what “would” happen if this team or that team played. “Would” is hollow garbage compared to “did.”
The SEC winning 13 of the past 18 national titles — 14 of 19 if you want to count Texas in 2005, which the SEC surely will — means nothing this season.
The fact that, according to the 247Sports Team Talent Composite, the SEC has the two most talented rosters (Alabama and Georgia), three of the top four (throw in Texas), six of the top 10 and 14 of the top 26 also doesn’t matter. If you want to play the talent game, the three winning teams Indiana beat this season come in at No. 16 (Michigan), 23 (Nebraska) and 35 (Washington).
Not bad, but all three are 6-5. Meanwhile, Indiana ranks No. 57 in the talent composite index, which is still better than Playoff hopefuls Iowa State (68), Boise State (76) and BYU (78). Imagine how boring this wonderful game would be if it was only about perceived talent accumulation.
SEC commissioner Greg Sankey has been trumpeting the strength of schedule metric lately, though he doesn’t have the committee’s official numbers. According to schedule strength rankings from The Athletic’s Austin Mock, there’s not a huge advantage. The SEC’s three teams in the field come in at No. 5 (Georgia), No. 61 (Texas) and No. 63 (Tennessee), an average of No. 43.
The Big Ten’s four teams come in at No. 64 (Oregon), No. 34 (Ohio State), No. 36 (Penn State) and No. 66 — that’s Indiana after Saturday’s lopsided 38-15 loss at Ohio State to help the schedule and hurt the Hoosiers’ perception. That’s an average of No. 50.
What did the SEC do in nonleague play? Georgia’s 34-3 romp over No. 12 Clemson on a neutral site stands as the lone bragging point. Alabama routed Wisconsin on the road and Texas did the same at Michigan, but those don’t mean now what they seemed to mean then. Meanwhile, LSU losing to USC, Florida losing by 24 at home to Miami, Texas A&M losing at home to Notre Dame and Vanderbilt losing at Georgia State don’t help.
That’s not to say the Big Ten has done anything special. The USC win over Brian Kelly’s disappointing Tigers? Nebraska blasting Colorado 28-10? Oregon escaping Boise State at home, 37-34? But the point is, the SEC didn’t exactly assert its dominance in September.
Also, a league with 16 teams and eight conference games, meaning each team misses seven conference opponents, is more like a social club. The Big Ten gets extra credit for going to nine conference games, but at 18 teams that still means eight teams you aren’t playing.
So while Georgia’s Kirby Smart has a right to pound his chest and tell anyone who will listen how tough it is to play in the SEC, based on his team’s schedule, Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz should probably hang back. “Being in the SEC” will mean very different things from schedule to schedule, from season to season.
This comes down to the Big Ten’s middle-class members being more collegial than their SEC counterparts. Minnesota, Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin and USC all pushed the four Playoff probables and all lost one-score games to them. Auburn, Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, Vanderbilt and Kentucky all took chunks out of the top of the SEC.
Though more surprises are possible — including Texas A&M beating rival Texas, doing the same to Georgia in the SEC title game and clinching a bid and a bye — right now Big Ten 4, SEC 3 is how it should be.
(Photo of Ole Miss’ Tre Harris and LSU’s Ashton Stamps: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
