The best relievers tend to have identical methods of getting batters out: They throw a fastball between 80 and 105 mph, and they throw with either their left or right hand or occasionally both. They have a breaking ball or an offspeed pitch, or several of each. They’re often between the ages of 21 and 49, and they’ll typically have between eight and 12 fingers. Sometimes they’re expensive because they’ve been successful for years and years. Sometimes they’re cheap because they’re young. Other times, they’re cheap because they didn’t learn how to get major-league batters out until they were in their 30s.
If you want to find a great high-leverage reliever, find someone who fits that description. It’s just that easy.
However, if you want to narrow the description of a good reliever, look for the guys who throw 102 with movement and also have a wipeout slider. Seems like cheating, but it’s actually a widely accepted practice. The Giants have one of these. They also might be looking to trade him. Camilo Doval is a rare talent with the potential to be a high-leverage reliever on any team, which means he’d be popular in trade talks. It also means there must be a reason why the Giants would consider trading him.
The pros and cons for each path:
Why the Giants would consider trading Doval
He wasn’t very good last season, which seems like the best place to start. He was below replacement level according to Baseball-Reference, and he was right at replacement level according to FanGraphs. He walked 39 of the 271 batters he faced, which is about 100 fewer walks than you remember, but he had a penchant for saving his walks for the worst possible time — nobody out and a two-run lead, for example.
When the tying run was on deck, batters hit .314/.415/.457 against Doval. He threw 81 pitches with nobody out and the tying run on deck in 2024; and he threw 48 of them out of the strike zone. Maddening. Absolutely maddening.
This might not be a blip, either. Remember that when the Giants called Doval up in 2021, he had a 7.0 BB/9 in Triple A and a minor-league career filled with inflated walk rates, but it didn’t immediately translate to the majors. My pet theory is that minor leaguers were more apt to say, “What in the heck do you expect me to do with this?” when they saw 102 with a wipeout slider, and taking pitches was more self-preservation than strategy. Major leaguers were more confident, and they also might have assumed that a major-league reliever was likelier to throw strikes.
My other pet theory is that Doval loves to throw his slider when he’s behind in the count. From Baseball Savant:
If a batter is ahead in the count, 2-0, and he’s looking for a slider, he’ll know better than to attack the ones that start on the outside part of the plate. Doval is trying to paint corners in those situations, but he paints with the precision of a preschooler, and 1-0 counts become 2-0 counts, and 2-0 counts become 3-0 counts and so on.
Either way, there’s a book on Doval, and it’s been passed around: Make him throw strikes. He struggled to adjust, which is why the Giants sent him to Sacramento last summer with a Criterion Collection box set of Emmanuel Clasé’s best outings. Do what he does, then listen to the Martin Scorsese audio track that explains why throwing unhittable stuff for strikes is a good idea.
Seems simple enough, except throwing more strikes isn’t always simple, especially for a pitcher who needs to max out his velocity and arm speed. There might be a glass ceiling to Doval’s effectiveness, and his stuff is likelier to decline with age than improve.
However, Doval is in a very, very exclusive club of relievers who can throw a pitch to a batter who’s looking for it and still get a swing and a miss. The teams who aren’t satisfied with just a division title or postseason appearance — the teams like the Yankees, Orioles, Braves, Phillies and Dodgers — would very much like to stack their bullpen with pitchers in that club. Doval isn’t coveted by teams looking to win more regular-season games, but the ones that will be disappointed if they don’t at least win a pennant.
Those are the teams that might want to refurbish Doval, and it’s not wacky to think that a fresh set of eyes and spreadsheets could make him more effective. And if they’re willing to supply the Giants with prospects, the Giants will have to consider it. Doval is also scheduled to make around $5 million this year, and he’s likely to get even bigger raises in the two seasons after that. If he’s not a candidate for a long-term contract — and relievers almost never are — now’s the time to chat with the teams in the middle of a frantic, slightly panicked win-now mentality.
Why the Giants would want to keep Doval
Don’t be a goober and pretend that the Giants have absolutely zero shot at the postseason next year. It might not be likely, but there’s still a better chance than a lot of teams. Remember that the Tigers made the postseason last year after being sellers at the deadline and trading a veteran to the Giants. It won’t take a turnaround that extreme for the Giants to be playing in October. And if they get there, they’ll need all of the rare, high-leverage arms they can get.
That’s not the likeliest scenario, but it’s realistic enough to where the Giants wouldn’t want to just give Doval away. Their asking price should be roughly the same as it was last offseason. Which is to say, they should pretend that 2024 didn’t happen, and they’ll need trade partners to do the same. It was a gap year, don’t worry about it.
If trade partners are looking at acquiring Doval at reclamation-pitcher prices, forget about it. He’ll have more potential value to the Giants.
And while the Giants’ bullpen looks on the deeper side from here, with the emergence of Sean Hjelle, Randy Rodríguez and Erik Miller giving them depth and a fairly high ceiling, bullpens are fickle. Fickle and malevolent. Can’t trust ’em. The best way to have a lockdown bullpen is to multiple baskets, with multiple eggs in each.
Bullpens are fickle, but they also aren’t completely random. It wouldn’t be even a minor surprise to see Doval return to being an important part of a balanced bullpen. It would be one of the easiest squares to fill on the Giants’ contending bingo card, and they can afford $5 million to see if Doval is a high-leverage option again, especially with the safety net of the trade deadline. Teams usually get even goofier for relievers at the deadline.
The real answer was to trade him to Baltimore for Colton Cowser before the 2023 season. Look at how mad you awful people were in the comments here. My delicate sensibilities have never recovered, but I was right. (Ignore that the section with a header of “Flame-throwing relievers are volatile” includes a table that’s topped by a mercurial pitcher who throws in the low- to mid-90s now and may or may not be in the Giants’ rotation. I have no idea what to make of that, either.)
Don’t trust relievers. Don’t overrate them. Also, don’t underrate them, and get as many trustworthy ones as you can. It’s complicated.
If the market is hot for Doval, though, the Giants have a chance to build for the future at the expense of a present that’s not likely to be that exciting. It would be the kind of trade they’d have to consider.
(Photo: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
