Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
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Running Back Touches
Last week was a disaster for Audric Estime, who produced next to nothing while Javonte Williams, who Sean Payton said Estime would be replacing, received the bulk of the work. This is the second time that listening to Payton about his running backs has blown up in our face. I will not be Wile E. Coyote-ing with Estime/Payton quotes a third time.
There’s very little at running back on waivers. Roschon Johnson could get 10-12 touches and a goal-line TD. I take no issue if you want to go crazy and do 35% of your remaining budget for him.
The Chargers want to limit J.K. Dobbins to save him for what they hope will be an extended run into the postseason. So maybe add Gus Edwards, but Edwards has no path to being a proactive play without a Dobbins injury.
Cam Akers is a reasonable target at a max bid of about 30% given that you can see Aaron Jones fading, or at least being treated as a committee back by the Vikings. Akers is the clear No. 2 in the Minnesota backfield.
Beyond those few waiver suggestions, there is just noteworthy usage by some rostered backs, starting with No. 1 Josh Jacobs (51.16%). I can’t see him getting a 50% market share going forward unless you want to rely on a blocked field goal to win a game. Jacobs is far from dynamic. But maybe the Packers are protecting the oft-injured Jordan Love.
Derrick Henry should never be 18th, especially when the defense is daring you to run like the Steelers obviously were. Pittsburgh lives in Lamar Jackson’s head, knowing he wants to prove he can beat them and thus daring him to put the ball in another player’s hands. It keeps working. But I wouldn’t worry about it with other teams.
James Cook has been managed more of late with a three-man committee at running back. His TDs masked that in Week 11 and really most of the season. It was reasonable to think that the Bills, so bereft of skill talent, would really lean into Cook being the man. But after a slow start to the season while taking that approach, they’ve transformed to a more egalitarian team where everyone shares the rock.
Austin Ekeler is a cheat in that he’s really a receiver playing running back, which is very valuable in PPR. Jayden Daniels has been playing way more conservatively the past month and that boosts Ekeler’s check downs and dump offs.
Receiver Targets
Jauan Jennings was tops in the model and is definitely the No. 1 WR on the Niners. He’s a player every top fantasy team wishes they had right now. Congrats if you stuck with him through the injuries.
Brock Bowers was second overall. That’s rare for a tight end. He’s basically a slot receiver, so I wouldn’t pay attention to what the matchups say about tight end vs. defenses, probably the most bogus stat that’s widely circulated in fantasy. The reason is the incredible variance in the skill level of NFL tight ends, way greater than at any other position. Who is like Bowers, for example?
Taysom Hill was right behind Bowers and he demands to be played if your league allows him to be at tight end. Even at RB he’s a deeper-league play. He’s a plausible Superflex QB play. But he’s on bye this week.
Rome Odunze was over 30% targets and that bodes well as we wind down our seasons.
Khalil Shakir has held off Amari Cooper, who didn’t even chart though he made some big plays against the Chiefs. I’m shocked that Cooper hasn’t emerged as a top target by now.
Quentin Johnston should not be on waivers anywhere. He’s explosive and was 33rd in the model. And his running mate Ladd McConkey should start in all flex10 formats (three WRs plus a Flex).
Jerry Jeudy seems to have chemistry with Jameis Winston, but the Browns’ upcoming schedule is beyond brutal. Cedric Tillman was 54th and has been contained by defenses since his initial outbursts.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a TD in four of the past five games, including a 98 yarder in Week 11. He seems to have earned 25% targets, though he did not quite get to 20% in Week 11. He’s on the field every snap at least. He should be claimed and, with all the byes, probably started in Week 12. He’s widely available.
If you need a tight end this week, Luke Schoonmaker had 10 targets (just 17.9% market share though). It wasn’t quite a full game as he played for Dallas only after Jake Ferguson was injured early with a concussion on Monday night. The expectation for those with a concussion is always to miss the next game, so, given the likely absence of Ferguson, Schoonmaker possibly gets 6-to-8 targets in Week 12.
(Top photo of Austin Ekeler: Elsa/Getty Images)
