Here are my thoughts on Tuesday’s CFP rankings:
ACC: SMU (8-1) should become the highest-ranked ACC team and be projected to earn a first-round bye. The No. 12 Mustangs, who gave up nine years of ACC TV revenue to join the conference, are alone atop the ACC standings after their bye week. Miami (9-1) will take a big dip from No. 4 and fall out of the Playoff projection.
SEC: Texas (8-1) should jump to pole position in the SEC. The Longhorns blew out Florida 49-17 as Quinn Ewers threw for a season-high 333 yards and five TDs. There are only two other one-loss teams in the conference (Texas A&M and Tennessee). I could see the Vols jumping into the top five, and the committee will like Alabama’s win against LSU. The committee will make Ole Miss (8-2) fans mad by keeping Georgia (7-2) in the field on the strength of its win against Texas.
Big Ten: The three teams with the best chance of making the CFP, per Austin Mock, all reign from the Big Ten (Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana). The committee should keep Oregon and Ohio State as Nos. 1 and 2. I can see it moving Penn State into the top five and Indiana up two spots to No. 6 (the Hoosiers won’t jump the Nittany Lions because the committee already showed its hand there). There’s a BIG drop-off after the Big Ten’s top four, but the conference should be pleased with the fact that it’s well-positioned for four teams to make the field.
Big 12: It looked like BYU (9-0) was going to stumble, but the Cougars survived and so did their CFP hopes. Outside the Playoff bracket, the biggest movement in the Big 12 will come from 7-1 Colorado, which should jump a few spots and has a legitimate chance to control its destiny with a shot at the conference title and CFP bid.
Group of 5: If BYU had lost, I would have predicted Boise State (8-1) to be ranked ahead of the top Big 12 team and earn a first-round bye, but the Cougars held on, which will keep Boise State as the G5 representative and a participant in the first round. The Broncos beat Nevada 28-21 yesterday in a game that was put away by Ashton Jeanty (of course).
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