The SEC tiebreaker procedures are 22 pages long. There’s a reason it took so long to announce them. Anyone interested in any light reading, they’re here in all their glory. And after sifting through them again on Sunday morning, here’s the conclusion:
In one scenario, depending on one specific result next weekend, this all probably will get settled in a very tidy fashion.
Otherwise, there’s a good chance for chaos.
Before getting to all that, a quick reminder about why all this matters:
The Playoff impact
Yes, the expanded College Football Playoff means more than just the SEC champion will get in the field, and there’s a case to be made for wanting to avoid playing in the SEC Championship Game. But the way things are playing out, it may not be that desirable.
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The ideal seed, many have argued, is No. 5 or possibly No. 6, meaning teams get the week off from the SEC championship, a first-round home game, then a quarterfinal matchup on a neutral site against the ACC or Big 12 winner, who may not be that good. All in all, that still holds.
But in case you didn’t notice, only three SEC teams — Tennessee, Texas A&M and Texas — have one conference loss, while five others have two. Meanwhile, the Big Ten has unbeaten Oregon and Indiana and one-loss Ohio State and Penn State. The chances are dwindling that the SEC non-champions will get that coveted No. 5 seed, and the No. 6 seed may be hard to get too.
Jalen Milroe (4), Geno VanDeMark and the Alabama Crimson Tide kept their SEC championship hopes alive with a win on Saturday at LSU. (Stephen Lew / Imagn Images)
What is almost guaranteed is the SEC champion getting a first-round bye and almost certainly the No. 1 or No. 2 seed. That’s the safest route at this point. But to get there, teams need to make it to the SEC championship.
Where things stand
First, let’s focus on the standings by conference record among teams with a realistic chance. There is a mathematical possibility for the three-loss teams, but let’s not worry about them:
SEC title game contenders
| Team | SEC record | Remaining SEC schedule |
|---|---|---|
|
5-1 |
at Georgia, at Vanderbilt |
|
|
5-1 |
at Auburn, vs. Texas |
|
|
4-1 |
at Arkansas, vs. Kentucky, at Texas A&M |
|
|
5-2 |
vs. Tennessee |
|
|
4-2 |
at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn |
|
|
4-2 |
at Florida, vs. Mississippi State |
|
|
3-2 |
at Florida, vs. Vandy, vs. Oklahoma |
|
|
3-2 |
at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, vs. Arkansas |
There is one clean scenario: Tennessee wins out, as do Texas A&M and Texas before their showdown, meaning there are just two one-loss teams. Tennessee would face the winner of Texas A&M-Texas. Easy, done.
But if Tennessee loses at Georgia next week, and the Volunteers are the underdogs, then we’re assured of at least one two-loss team being in the SEC championship. There’s also no guarantee Texas A&M will win at Auburn, Tennessee will win at Vanderbilt or Texas will win at Arkansas … and so on.
Maybe enough of the two-loss teams lose another game, making it easier to decipher. But if not, there are a few things to remember in the event three or more teams are tied for first or second place:
• The first tiebreaker is head-to-head among tied teams. But with such varied schedules, it will be hard to settle. In the not-unlikely scenario that Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee and Ole Miss tie for second place, the only team that played all of the others is Georgia, and at least in our reading of the tiebreakers, nobody would be eliminated or win the tiebreaker.
• The second tiebreaker is the record vs. common opponents for all teams involved in the tie. But again, teams need to have enough common opponents among the tied teams. So maybe that settles it, but maybe it doesn’t. The logjam of teams at the top makes it hard to say right now.
• The third tiebreaker is the record against the highest-placed common opponent among the tied teams. So for instance, if Texas wins out and is in first place, that would help Georgia but only if the teams it has played have played Texas, which Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee have not.
• So it could come down to the fourth tiebreaker, which is the combined winning percentage of all conference opponents for each team, regardless of common opponents. Schedule strength, in other words.
So as we wrap up, let’s have some fun.
8-way tie for first place
Yes, it could happen if Georgia beats Tennessee, the winner of Texas-Texas A&M loses a game before that, AND Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri all win out.
Maybe there’s a tiebreaker scenario before schedule strength that ultimately settles it. But if it goes to schedule strength, here’s how it would look, taking into account what the teams’ records would be at that point:
- Alabama 33-31
- LSU 31-33
- Georgia 28-36
- Texas A&M 28-36
- Missouri 24-40
- Ole Miss 23-41
- LSU 22-42
- Texas 22-42
And there you have it: Alabama and LSU get a rematch, right? Well not necessarily, this only determines the first-place team, so Alabama gets first, and then it reverts to the original tiebreakers. But that could still be LSU unless there’s a common opponent among those seven teams in there that we’re missing.
We could go on for a while. Or we could wait at least another week to see if the picture becomes a bit more clear. What we’ve seen so far indicates more upsets are coming, which could help clear up the logjam … or maybe not.
(Top photo: Justin Ford / Getty Images)
