The NASCAR Cup Series is down to the Championship 4: Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and William Byron. The rest of the field will be racing with them at Phoenix Raceway, but only those four are championship-eligible.
To anyone who has been paying attention this season, it’s a bit of a shock to notice some names missing from that foursome, like Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell. More on that below.
But on Sunday, it’s do or die: Regardless of who wins the race, the first of the Championship 4 to cross the finish line after 312 laps will be the one to raise the Bill France Cup.
Speaking of Bill France, the France family is embroiled in a legal battle against two teams, one owned by Michael Jordan, and they were all in court earlier this week. The drama is high!
There is so much to talk about and wonder about, so as always, we’re bringing all our burning NASCAR questions to our experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi. They’ll walk us through the stakes of this week’s events, break down the Championship 4 and give their picks for the winner.
The NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix Raceway is this Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on NBC.
Take it away, guys.
Free, daily sports updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily sports updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
Here we are. You’ve guided us through every race of the Cup Series, and we have only the Championship ahead of us. Before we dive in, I must say it’s been an absolute pleasure! You’ve converted new NASCAR fans among this editing team! So, let’s do a retrospective: In three words, how would you describe this season?
Jeff: Up And Down. This season had some great, memorable moments, but also some that we’d rather forget and never think about again. That seems to be commonplace in NASCAR these days, and it’s always sort of a rollercoaster ride throughout the season with high highs and low lows.
Jordan: Wild roller coaster.
What a crazy finish to the semifinals! Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott out!?! Not to be THAT PERSON, but: How would you respond to the *possible* fan complaints that some of the season’s best drivers aren’t in the Championship 4?
Jeff: It’s absolutely accurate. Larson won six races — double the next-closest driver — and isn’t even competing for a championship. Elliott leads the series in average finish. Bell leads the series in top-fives and top-10s and was having one of the best playoff runs ever in terms of average finish. That trio accounts for the top three drivers in overall points this season, and yet none of them are even eligible to win the championship this season. How do you explain that to a new fan? Heck, how do you explain that to a longtime fan? It hurts the credibility of the playoff format when the best drivers aren’t in the field, but that’s seemingly what NASCAR wants — nine weeks of chaos and upsets in the name of “excitement.” Personally, I think it weakens the interest level in seeing who wins Sunday’s race because there’s no doubt the four drivers who made it do not account for the best four drivers of the season as a group.
Jordan: It’s a tired argument. In most sports, the best team isn’t guaranteed a spot in the championship. And if you go through who won the championship since NASCAR instituted the current playoff format, most years, it’s hard to quibble with who won. And what often gets lost in the noise surrounding the format is that it forces drivers and teams to push themselves harder in an attempt to score an all-important win. Witness what transpired in all three semifinal-round races that featured stirring finishes with serious stakes. And it’s worth noting that while many like to poke at the quality of the Championship 4 field, Joey Logano has won three times over the past 17 races, whereas in that same span, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin have a combined zero wins. Greatness comes in many forms, and in the case of Logano, Ryan Blaney and Tyler Reddick, it’s finding a way to prevail when the pressure is the highest. They did that. The others fell short.
Martinsville was rife with controversial moves — as you’d expect from a do-or-die scenario for these drivers. William Byron is in the Championship 4, thanks to a penalty on Christopher Bell. Then, on Tuesday, NASCAR issued several more penalties for drivers and teams who made moves to manipulate results (blocking and slowing). But Byron didn’t get penalized even though he benefitted from some of it. Can you please explain how this is fair?
Jeff: Byron didn’t do anything wrong, so it’s hard to penalize him. But he shouldn’t have made it based on NASCAR’s penalties for race manipulation. Had Chevy played fairly, Byron would have lost several positions, and the Bubba Wallace incident and Bell’s wall ride would have never happened. Instead, Chevy pays a small fee to get a driver in the championship race; just imagine if Byron wins it after that.
Jordan: It’s really not. Chevrolet will happily take having to pay a mid-six figure fine in exchange for placing a driver in the Championship 4 field that it otherwise would’ve missed out on. The only deterrent to stopping manufacturers and teams from manipulating finishes is handing suspensions to drivers and/or penalizing the manufacturers directly. Until that happens, this problem will continue to exist.
My popcorn is popped, and I am seated for the hottest new courtroom drama, NASCAR vs. Michael Jordan. On Friday: a major decision on 23XI Racing’s and Front Row Motorsports’ status in 2025. On Saturday: a 23XI driver makes a play for the championship. Whew! I have so many questions about this, but the main one is: Who has more to lose in this whole court battle? Seems like 23XI and FRM have a LOT on the line, including being able to keep Tyler Reddick next year…
Jeff: NASCAR has more to lose because being on the wrong end of an antitrust case would change how it does business permanently. We can’t even imagine the fallout that would come from that, but it would be seismic. 23XI and FRM certainly can lose lots of money — probably $100 million apiece in charters alone, plus millions in race winnings they would have received — but that’s part of their gamble in this case. As you mentioned, 23XI also said Reddick’s driver contract says he would be free to walk if the team didn’t come up with a charter for him, but I doubt he’d go anywhere.
Jordan: The potential fallout could be seismic, regardless of the outcome. If 23XI and Front Row lose, they could be out millions and millions of dollars that they’ve invested in building their respective teams. And it’s not farfetched that one or both could decide it’s not worth it and decide to cut bait. Losing either team would be a shame. On the other side, NASCAR losing the lawsuit would greatly change how it governs the sport. Its power would no longer be viewed as absolute, a complete departure from how NASCAR has operated for the past 76 years.
Would a Tyler Reddick win on Sunday change the landscape for either side? If not materially, perhaps emotionally.
Jeff: Probably not. At this point, it’s going to play out in court. But certainly, it would be insanely awkward for NASCAR to hand Michael Jordan the championship trophy in literally the same week they were all in federal court together.
Jordan: Maybe NASCAR would feel compelled to reach a settlement as the optics of staring down your championship-winning team in U.S. federal court is not a good look. But that ship also already feels as if it’s sailed. NASCAR has already had to weather a barrage of negativity over the fact that the team co-owned by Michael Jordan filed an antitrust lawsuit against it. Would 23XI winning the championship really make things worse? Probably not.
Final NOOB question of the week: Aside from last year, the champion has always won this final race. What in the Predetermined Outcome is that?? Can you explain that to me? Is there some gentleman’s agreement going on here? Are teams basically just helping their Championship 4 guy win, so it’s tough for anyone not in that group to win?
Jeff: There are a couple of theories on this. First, historically, you have the best drivers of the season eligible for the championship race, and they’re going all out — probably even pushing the rules a bit — so they’re going to find themselves up front. Plus, other drivers don’t want to be that guy who interferes with a championship contender, so they mostly don’t race them very hard — which makes it easier to climb through the field. But overall, I’d say it’s a case of the fastest cars of the season getting to the championship and executing when it counts. I don’t think that will necessarily be the case this year, though, as we’ll discuss below.
OK, set the stage for us in Phoenix. Who is your favorite to win the race, and who is your favorite to win the championship? Will they be one and the same man? Any chance of a long shot? Of the Championship 4, who is the longest shot?
Jeff: Christopher Bell should be considered the favorite to win the race, in my opinion. If he made the championship, he’d be an easy title favorite as well. He won the Phoenix spring race by more than 5.5 seconds after restarting 20th on the last caution, dominated New Hampshire (the closest style track to Phoenix) and was going to win at Gateway (another track in a similar vein) until he had a late problem with his engine. But since he can’t win the title, I’ll go with Tyler Reddick. I know Ryan Blaney is going to be the popular pick, and there’s absolutely a great reason there. I can’t fault anyone who argues Blaney is the guy. But Reddick was tied for the most laps led in the Phoenix spring race and led the second-most laps at New Hampshire. With full Toyota backing, I can see Reddick getting it done on Sunday.
Jordan: Feels like we’ll see two different drivers celebrating on Sunday — one for winning the race, the other for the championship. How fast Bell was at Phoenix in the spring cannot be ignored, plus you have to figure he’s going to be on a mission after the way his title hopes ended at Martinsville. As for the champion, Blaney becomes the first driver to go back-to-back since Jimmie Johnson in 2011, when he won the last of his five straight titles. But a viable case could be made for any of the four finalists, with this year’s championship wide-open with no clear favorite.
Odds for NASCAR Cup Series Championship winner
Read more about NASCAR
What it’s like under Michael Jordan’s watch in the heat of a NASCAR race
Frankie Muniz Q&A: On his NASCAR plans, meeting Dale Earnhardt and racing movies
Wayne Auton, NASCAR’s ‘fatherly figure,’ prepares for final race and a new chapter
(Photo of Tyler Reddick: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
