Market share report: Jets lean into their strengths, Rico Dowdle is no laughing matter and more

Date:

Share post:


Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.

What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).

Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.

Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note that I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”

Scoop City Newsletter

Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.

Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.

Sign UpBuy Scoop City Newsletter

Receiver Targets

I’m afraid the Jaxon Smith-Njigba outburst will be short-lived after the bye in Week 10 given the expected return of DK Metcalf. But he was No. 2 in Week 9.

Darnell Mooney at No. 3 is just more evidence that he’s a league winner.

Travis Kelce and Cade Otton played in the Tight End Bowl and finished fourth and fifth overall. Otton was more efficient. As expected, he’s the beneficiary of the decimated Tampa Bay receiving corps.

Evan Engram at No. 9 while Brian Thomas Jr. doesn’t even chart is why the Jaguars are terrible and why Trevor Lawrence, who has the dump off as a primary read, is such a massive disappointment. The Jaguars do not deserve Thomas.

The Jets are doing things right. The only charting receivers are Davante Adams (No. 6) and Garrett Wilson (No. 11). It’s just glorious. And it’s also a boon to Aaron Rodgers, who now looks like a Top 10 fantasy QB and is still widely available.

Courtland Sutton was in the Top 20 again. He’s a Top 20 WR rest-of-season, or close enough. His Fantasy Pros consensus ROS rank is WR42. Trade for him at this price, please.

Bijan Robinson was the No. 1 RB in target share. Unfortunately, there is no sneaky zeroRB waiver-wire add this week based on this metric.

Tank Dell gets an upgrade in the Top 20 even if Nico Collins returns this week. The passing tree is going to be a lot more narrow regardless. I hate Dell’s pint-sized prototype, but I wish I had some shares right now.

Washington’s Noah Brown is definitely worth rostering now, especially after they did nothing at the WR position at the deadline. He’s only 2% rostered on Yahoo. Market share is important here because his No. 20 finish in Week 9 means a lot more than six targets, which can escape our attention.

I like Xavier Legette after the trades in Carolina and the fact that Bryce Young didn’t look like a complete bust last week. The same goes for Ja’Tavion Sanders at tight end, where his 19.2% rate was near the 20% we like. He’s far more athletic than the average tight end, too. So it’s reasonable to think his production will exceed his target share.

I feel similar about Theo Johnson, 32nd overall (sixth among TEs) and just behind Brock Bowers.

I fear I was wrong about Jameis Winston being a good fit with David Njoku. The market share has not been there. I would’ve expected him to be in the Top 30 consistently. He was 61st in Week 9.

Running Back Touches

Chase Brown was No. 3, not surprising with Zack Moss (neck) banged up and now expected to be out for the year. Enter Khalil Herbert, who has extremely good advanced metrics for his career. It seems like the Bengals don’t think that Brown can be “The Man” in terms of market share. I would add Herbert.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. further cemented himself as the RB1 for the Giants, and you can snicker at that, but us zeroRB types can care less about the real-life team.

Rico Dowdle was 25th and gets laughed at still by the experts. I heard on the radio a couple of supposed sharps saying they prefer Jaylen Warren over Dowdle. What? Dowdle is about to get a Trey Lance bump too, with his running threat really boosting the entire running game operation (about 0.5 yards per carry on average for the RB).

Raheem Mostert and Bucky Irving, both around RB30, are reasonable starters. Irving outpaced Rachaad White. I guess you can bet on Jaleel McLaughlin, though Sean Payton again said he wants more Audric Estime, who we’ve overestimated for the same reason before.

Those Kimani Vidal shares are worthless. He does nothing and J.K. Dobbins was again in the Top 20, and also efficient again.

Tank Bigsby having no role in the passing game is very harmful to his PPR value, especially if you think the Jaguars are going to be trailing for most of their remaining games.

Again, no real waiver-wire value at RB but a lot of zeroRB guys are thriving: Brown, Tony Pollard, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Kareem Hunt, D’Andre Swift, Dobbins, Tracy — all are in the Top 20 and at least RB2s the rest of the season, barring injury. What’s unusual is that just two of these guys were waiver adds (Tracy, Hunt).

(Top photo of Rico Dowdle: Brett Davis-Imagn Images)



Source link

Alexandra Williams
Alexandra Williams
Alexandra Williams is a writer and editor. Angeles. She writes about politics, art, and culture for LinkDaddy News.

Recent posts

Related articles

NFL sends security warning to teams after Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce's homes burglarized

By Dianna Russini, Larry Holder and Alex AndrejevThe NFL sent a memo to teams from the league’s...

Guinea request to replace Tanzania at AFCON after substitute allegedly wore wrong number in qualifier

The Guinea Football Federation (FGF) is claiming Tanzania should be prevented from qualifying for next year’s Africa...

How Josh Metellus became the key to Brian Flores' innovative Vikings defense

He wears the perfect number: 44.What type of football player typically wears 44? It feels too high...

Sabres mailbag: Will Kevyn Adams make a significant trade? Does Trevor Zegras fit?

The Buffalo Sabres started their California road trip with a 1-0 win over the Los Angeles Kings...

Has the expanded College Football Playoff made more games 'matter' down the stretch?

The expanded College Football Playoff is doing exactly what it intended to do, allowing more teams more...

Are the Blues considering a Jim Montgomery reunion? It's not out of the question

Based on the timing of the St. Louis Blues’ announcement last May that Drew Bannister was signing...

Chelsea's Reece James out of Leicester game with hamstring injury

Chelsea captain Reece James has suffered another injury setback after being ruled out of the Premier League...

Geno Auriemma takes over the GOAT mantle, plus Army's CFP dreams

The Pulse Newsletter 📣 | This is The Athletic’s daily sports newsletter. Sign up here to receive...