CNN political analyst Marc Lotter issued a strong warning to the Democrats regarding early voting numbers: They’re not looking good for Kamala Harris in the battleground states.
Early voting, typically dominated by Democrat voters, has seen a surge for former President Donald Trump in some of these tightly contested vitally important states. On the flip side, they’ve also seen a drop off in enthusiasm for the Harris-Walz ticket.
Lotter, who previously served as Press Secretary to Vice President Mike Pence, delivered a little bit of that harsh reality to a panel of experts on CNN.
“The math doesn’t work,” he told viewers who likely don’t often rely on numbers, facts, or figures. “The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas. They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters.”
Lotter went on to remark that rural voters – another Trump demographic stronghold – have also overperformed early.
“Democrats have to win their races early. Republicans generally win them on election day.” he continued. “The margins don’t add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states.”
BREAKING: “The margins don’t add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states,” according to former VP press secretary Marc Lotter. pic.twitter.com/1PKn8qF54C
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 5, 2024
Lotter expanded a bit, or rather, reiterated his stance that the early voting numbers are not a good sign for Team Harris with a post on the X social media platform.
“The math doesn’t work for Kamala,” he opined. “She’s down millions of urban and women early votes while rural voters are early voting in greater numbers than in 2020.”
The math doesn’t work for Kamala. She’s down millions of urban and women early votes while rural voters are early voting in greater numbers than in 2020. @CNN @thelauracoates pic.twitter.com/iqCg8xOwAr
— Marc Lotter (@marc_lotter) November 5, 2024
There are a couple of ways one could look at that. Does early voting help carry Trump to victory? It should certainly open up the pool of overall Republican voters. But will it also siphon away numbers from the surge he usually enjoys on Election Day?
The one Lotter is expecting, and Republicans are hoping for.
Either way, the enthusiasm gap is becoming readily apparent with these over 78 million early votes cast. Republicans have taken a 12 percentage point gap in such voting in 2020 and turned it into just a 2 percent difference.
As RedState columnist Ward Clark points out, the early voting numbers “should have dems biting their thumbs.”
And that does seem to be the case. Jim Messina, the former White House deputy chief of staff under Barack Obama, is warning that early voting data, typically dominated by Democrat voters, are not looking ideal for Kamala’s camp right now.
Rare moment of truthtelling on MSNBC.
If Jim Messina and Jen Psaki are panicked, it’s not good.pic.twitter.com/juzeODzi4b
— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) November 4, 2024
“The early vote numbers are a little scary,” Messina told MSNBC’s Jen Psaki. “Republicans didn’t do what they did last time. Last time, Trump said don’t early vote so they didn’t.”
This election cycle, Trump and the Republicans have thoroughly embraced early voting, accepting that while it may not be an ideal system, it is the system we are forced to work with.
“Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers,” Messina continued. “When the early votes come in, it’s going to look a little bit different than 2020, and that’s scary.”
It’s not the numbers so much that should be scary, but the enthusiasm behind them that’s generating massive tallies of votes for Donald Trump. Will that early spark be enough to carry him to victory?
