President Donald J. Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris with 48 percent over her 47 percent in a national poll conducted Oct 31 by Kaplan Strategies with 671 registered voters.
“The race has been locked up inside the margin of error for the last 100 or so days since Harris was anointed by President Joe Biden as his successor as the party’s nominee,” said Doug Kaplan, the founder and president of the Kissimmee, Florida-based political consulting shop. The poll carries a 3.8 percentage point margin of error.
“It may not seem like one point is a big deal, but in the context of the national or popular vote, it means more because California and New York are 15 percent of the population, where Democrats run up votes they don’t need,” he said.
“In 2020, Biden got eight million extra votes in those two states that had nothing to do with the Electoral College—by states—so, if even if Trump were down by three points, it would really be like a tie,” he said.
Kaplan said one of the tricky things about polling is the effect of early voting.
“Forty-seven percent of the respondents already voted,” he said. “Forty-one percent said they were very likely to vote.”
Kaplan: Gender turnout controls who wins the White House
“The story of this election will be remembered as turnout, but turnout by gender, because the two candidates have two mirrored gender gaps,” Kaplan said.
“We started with 50,000 responses, and we whittled it down to match our proprietary turnout model,” Kaplan said. “We think the turnout will be 52 percent female and 48 percent male—any movement north or south in those gender numbers is whole race.”
The pollster said Harris’s edge is due to her advantage with women and their propensity to outvote men.
“Harris has the support of 55 percent of female voters but only 41 percent of male voters,” he said.
“Trump has the support of 56 percent of male voters but only 39 percent of female voters,” the pollster said.
“It cuts both ways for both candidates, so we have to wait and see the results of the exit polling to see how it really played out, but as I read it, gender turnout is the game that matters,” he said.
“The gender gap is also playing out in the fight for the House of Representatives with the same gender gap,” he said.
According to Pew Research, in the 2020 presidential election, Trump won 44 percent of women, compared to his 39 percent in 2016.
“Fifty-one percent of female voters told Kaplan they would support Democratic House candidates, and 41 percent of female voters would support Republican House candidates,” Kaplan said.
“With male voters, 51 percent support Republican House candidates, 37 percent support Democratic House candidates,” he said.
Republicans control the House for this session that ends in January with 220 seats, while the Democrats have 212 seats with three vacancies.
Final Kaplan Strategies 2024 Presidential Poll by Neil on Scribd
Kaplan: Trump leads with Catholics; Harris leads with atheists, agnostics
“Even when Harris was on her hot streak, where nothing she did went wrong, she could not break out and build a lead over Trump,” Kaplan said.
“Trump’s support has been as resilient as any politician in American history, but unlike other popular politicians, Trump has incredible unfavorables—but so does she,” he said.
“Fifty percent of respondents have a ‘Very Unfavorable’ opinion of the president, and 36 percent of respondents have a ‘Very Favorable’ opinion of him,” he said.
“Harris has a similar gap,” Kaplan said. “Forty-six percent have a ‘Very Unfavorable’ opinion of the vice president, and 32 percent have a ‘Very Favorable’ view of her.”
Among religious groups, Trump’s strongest support is 59 percent with Catholics and 57 percent with Fundamentalist Christians, but his weakest support is with those with no religious affiliation, 31 percent, and with Jewish Americans, 37 percent.
Harris’ strongest support by religion is the 67 percent with voters with no religious affiliation and 63 percent with Jewish Americans.
Kaplan: Polling just likely voters misses Trump supporters
Kaplan said he made his final 2024 poll results with registered voters rather than likely voters, which was always considered the preferred method, especially as an election got closer.
He said the emphasis on likely voters, who are voters who have a history of regular voting in primaries and general elections, misses out on a large number of Trump supporters.
“When I worked with Pat Caddell in the 2016 election, he insisted that I open up my results to all registered voters because so many of Trump’s voters are off-the-grid, and voting for Trump might be the only time they ever vote,” he said.
“Trump’s lead is inside the margin of error; the five percent undecided should break for Trump because he has established himself as the challenger,” Kaplan said.
“It has been a struggle for each campaign to present themselves as both the incumbent and the challenger as it suits them, but in the end, Harris is flying Air Force 2,” he said.
“She claims to be in on all of Biden’s decisions, so in the end, she is not the challenger.”
