Vikings-Colts preview, predictions: Can Minnesota end its losing streak on 'SNF'?

The Minnesota Vikings’ roller-coaster ride continues Sunday night when the Indianapolis Colts come to town.

Remember the last time these two teams played? In 2022, some fans — and media members! — left the game at halftime. Unfortunately, they missed one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history.

“The greatest comeback in NFL History!”@Vikings vs Colts in 2022 was a movie 🎬 pic.twitter.com/MCKuYV89SN

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) October 31, 2024

This weekend’s matchup may not rise to that level, but it should be entertaining, especially after this week’s news regarding Anthony Richardson’s benching for Joe Flacco. As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: T.J. Hockenson. It’s easy to forget that he had 95 catches last season, more than any tight end not named Evan Engram and more than all but 13 other players in the NFL. He caught 55 passes between the numbers. This season, the Vikings have only attempted 88 passes between the numbers, fewer than all but three teams. Hockenson gives head coach and play caller Kevin O’Connell another chess piece. If the Vikings position Hockenson next to superstar receiver Justin Jefferson, defenses often match Hockenson with a linebacker, and Hockenson can easily separate from them. Against nickel corners, Hockenson’s size wins out, too. He is a big body in the red zone. He can block in the run game. Rarely have the Vikings had Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Hockenson healthy over the last two seasons, but they do now.

Ready to go out and have some fun.@TheeHOCK8 pic.twitter.com/rYKXZSZ8Kn

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 31, 2024

Krawczynski: Cam Robinson. Will he play? It seems like the easiest approach would be to let Robinson watch this week and then have a full week of practice next week before jumping into the fray. But it also feels like the Vikings are at a bit of an inflection point. If he starts Sunday night, it might feel a little desperate. But there should be some desperation after two straight losses. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made a terrific move to add a starting-caliber left tackle days after losing Christian Darrisaw. Now we will see if they can harness the former second-round draft pick and ensure that Darrisaw’s loss will not derail their season. It would seem to be asking a lot to throw him out there this quickly, but hey, O’Connell won a game with Josh Dobbs in a similar situation last year. And the Colts haven’t been putting a ton of pressure on the quarterback this season, so maybe now is the time.

Biggest concerns

Lewis: Jonathan Taylor. Without him, the Colts ground game resides near the bottom of the NFL in almost every meaningful metric. With him, the Colts have one of the league’s best rushing attacks. Taylor is averaging almost 5 yards per carry. He has the highest explosive rush rate of any running back in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense, which gave up six runs of 10 yards or more in the first five games, has allowed six runs of 10 yards or more in the last two games alone. Stopping the run means longer downs and distances on third down, and that means more time for the pass rush to get home. That’s partly why Brian Flores’ defense was so effective to start the season. Limiting Taylor will not be easy.

Krawczynski: Joe Flacco. If Anthony Richardson were under center for the Colts, I think this would be an easy win for the Vikings. The Minnesota defense needs to find its footing, and getting after an inaccurate, young quarterback would have been the perfect elixir. Maybe a year or two or three from now, Richardson will develop into a major threat at the position. But he’s too green. The Colts going with Flacco is a more daunting challenge. He’s experienced. He will not be as easily rattled by the pre-snap chaos that Flores throws at quarterbacks and is better prepared to execute the kind of quick-snap, quick-throw approach that has given the Vikings fits. Somehow, some way, Flacco has rediscovered a sharpness in his game at this late stage of his career. He will come into U.S. Bank Stadium ready, and the Vikings defense will have to be ready, too.

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Most interesting matchup

Lewis: The Vikings’ well-known pass catchers vs. the Colts’ unheralded secondary. What do you know about Kenny Moore II, Jaylon Jones, Samuel Womack III, Nick Cross and Julian Blackmon? If the answer is a lot, then you either work for the Colts, cover them or are a hardcore fan. These defenders are not often discussed nationally, but it’s a solid group. Moore is an experienced nickel corner. Jones was a seventh-round pick in 2023. Womack was a fifth-round pick in 2022. Cross was a third-round pick in 2022. Blackmon was a third-round pick in 2020. (Boy, it would be nice to sprinkle some of that late-round defensive back sauce over here!) On a different note, the Vikings’ receiving corps is probably as good as these Colts have faced. Indianapolis loves to play Cover 3, and the Vikings have the highest explosive pass rate against Cover 3 in the NFL. Something has to give.

Krawczynski: The Colts receivers vs. the Vikings secondary. Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and Josh Downs aren’t exactly household names like Jefferson and Hockenson, but the Vikings defensive backs have had a bit of a tough go in the last two weeks. It hasn’t helped that the front seven hasn’t been pressuring the quarterback, but it feels like Stephon Gilmore, Harrison Smith and the crew need to get their swagger back a little bit. Flacco can spin it, and Pierce has had a few big games, so the Vikings will have to be locked in if they are going to play more like the group that dominated early in the season.

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Most interesting storyline

Lewis: Can this Vikings defense return to its early-season production? If it can’t, the back half of this season is going to be tough sledding. The Vikings offense has been explosive through the air and efficient at times on the ground. Without Darrisaw and even with the recently acquired Robinson, expecting the offense to carry this team feels too hopeful. Quarterback Sam Darnold has played admirably. Running back Aaron Jones has been exceptional. Jefferson is other-worldly. But the down-to-down consistency has not been there for four quarters. If the offense can’t control the ball and score, more will fall on the defense. And if the unit crumbles beneath that weight — especially when Blake Cashman is healthy — it’s hard to envision a magical playoff run.

Krawczynski: Just how much this defense has missed Cashman. He’s an excellent player, but I did not anticipate that his absence would have such an impact on the unit as a whole. It’s unclear if he will play Sunday night. He did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, which is usually not a good sign. The Vikings miss him all over the field, against the run and the pass. If he is so important, it makes sense not to rush him back until he is ready. Whenever he does return, he will be even more appreciated for what he brings to the table because the difference without him has been stark.

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How these teams match up from a data standpoint

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness, success rate for efficiency and DVOA’s strength of schedule metric:

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 26, Colts 21. No NFL game is easy, and this one won’t be either. The Colts offensive line is stout, and we saw last week what happens to the Vikings defense if it cannot create a pass rush. The interior of the Colts defensive line (Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner) also worries me. But this is a must-have for Minnesota at home, so I’m rolling with the Vikings in a nail-biter.

Krawczynski: Vikings 24, Colts 21. Beware Flacco and the boost a backup quarterback can bring. I still think that getting this defense back home under the lights will be just enough to power the Vikings to a much-needed bounce-back.

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(Photo of T.J. Hockenson: David Berding / Getty Images)