We’ve been watching the polls and they seem now to all be coalescing in favor of President Donald Trump at this point.
It’s not hard to see why that might be as Kamala Harris can’t seem to enunciate any clear plans and just has a record of failure. Her last play is to call Trump “Hitler” and that seems to be backfiring on her. It means she saying that rather than offering anything helpful to the people. And it’s an old song that has failed for the Democrats in the past. It’s turning off voters, rather than helping her.
The numbers are showing it. We’ve written about HarrisX/Forbes, the Wall Street Journal Poll, and CNBC. Then, even the NYT/Siena poll came in tied head to head, but Trump is up by one point in the full field. That led to a tie in the Real Clear Politics average of the national popular vote.
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Now with more new polling, it’s gone even further. Even polls that some consider “liberal” are coming in with ties in the national vote. TIPP, Emerson.
Great polling start for Trump this morning. TIPP and Emerson show Trump tied in national race, and up from their previous polls.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) October 26, 2024
And even CNN has it tied at 47, with the Republicans up in the Generic Congressional numbers by 3 points.
🇺🇲 FINAL NATIONAL POLL: CNN/SSRS
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟪 Other: 2%Last poll (9/22) – 🔵 Harris +1
——
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP: 48%
🟦 DEM: 45%
——
Crosstabs
• Men: Trump 51-45%
• Women: Harris 50-44%
—
• Dem: Harris 93-5%
• GOP: Trump 92-7%
• Indie:… pic.twitter.com/4WvKd1ZcHJ— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 25, 2024
In the cross tabs, the Hispanic numbers are high for Trump, and the “Income under 50k” means it’s the folks who aren’t rich who are voting more for Trump.
Then there’s Emerson, who has it tied at 49.
NATIONAL POLL
2024 presidential election
Harris 49%
Trump 49%
1% someone else
1% undecidedhttps://t.co/2nJXZAmIRB pic.twitter.com/VDGpVMOOgR— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 26, 2024
So I think that’s fair to say there’s ample evidence, he could win the popular vote too.
How is that possible? According to folks like CNN’s Harry Enten, the numbers are coming from racking up numbers in states like California, Florida, New York, and Texas.
The RCP now has Trump up in the national vote, 0.1.
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 26, 2024
He’s still holding the lead in all the battleground states as well, sticking at 0.9.
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 26, 2024
If that holds, he would have 312 electoral votes.
Again, if we consider the Electoral College bias, factoring in how they were off in prior years, anything under +2 for Harris would be a win for Trump.
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 25, 2024
Cross your fingers, and get out to vote.
