We’ve been seeing polls moving in former President Donald Trump’s favor for most of this month.
Georgia looks especially good, given the latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution polling that puts the state up for Trump at a four-point lead, which could be moving it out of the “swing state” category. Also, the early voting out of Nevada is looking pretty good for Republicans as well.
Nate Silver’s last forecast numbers have Trump up nationally 53.1 to 46.6.
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Now Silver is saying his gut is telling him that Trump will win (and he’s not a Trump supporter).
“In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast,” Silver, whose model currently rates the Republican nominee with a 53.1% chance of becoming the 47th president, wrote in a New York Times op-ed published Tuesday.
“Yet when I deliver this unsatisfying news, I inevitably get a question: ‘C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?’” Silver went on. “So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats.”
Silver, 46, explained that surveys underestimated Trump’s performance in each of the last two elections because of “nonresponse bias” toward the 78-year-old’s supporters.
Silver said if Trump won, it would show that Democrats no longer held the lead in party identification, and we’ve seen this in the Gallup polling that showed Republicans with +3 in party identification.
Now, the HarrisX/Forbes poll is reporting another big swing for Trump.
🇺🇲 National poll: HarrisX/Forbes
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 49%Last poll (9/11-13) – 🔵 Harris +4
——
Battleground states
🟥 Trump: 54%
🟦 Harris: 46%10/21-22 | 1,244 LV | MoE: ±2.5%https://t.co/eyxPZ74EGi pic.twitter.com/HdBqbpHLoZ
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 23, 2024
They now have Trump up by two in the national vote 51 to 49 percent, with leaners– a six-point swing from last month when Kamala Harris was up by four points. On top of that, they have Trump up in the battleground states by eight points, which is big, 54 to 46 percent.
That now drops Harris’ lead in the RealClearPolitics average number for the national vote to 0.7. As we’ve noted, if you factor in the Electoral College bias, that’s more good news for Trump. Trump is up 1.1 points in the battleground states and he’s still up in every swing state.
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 23, 2024
You can see the averages growing in places like Georgia and Arizona.
Again, that’s looking good, but as I’ve been saying, only we can make it happen. Get out everyone you can and make a plan to vote early if you’re able.
Expect Democrats and their acolytes in the media to throw everything they can up against the wall in the final days. We can already see that they’re doing that with all kinds of fake stories and the constant effort to smear Trump. Indeed, Harris just held a press briefing to call Trump “Hitler”….again.
READ MORE: DESPERATE MUCH? Yes, Kamala Harris Really Held a Press Conference Just to Call Donald Trump ‘Hitler’
It’s insulting and offensive to the American people that Harris and the Democrats keep doing this.
But the funny thing is Harris is so fixated on that, she’s blowing defining herself more in a favorable way. All Americans see are the fake stories about Trump that they’ve already rejected, while she doesn’t represent any reason at all to vote for her.
