Over/unders! Oh, those are two sweet, enticing words, separated by a dramatic slash of punctuation. Those two words make you choose whether you are confident or concerned with a team heading into the upcoming regular season.
We’re counting down the hours until the 2024-25 season officially tips off Tuesday night in Boston as the champion Celtics accept their rings and raise their 18th banner. That means you still have time to declare your belief or doubt in any or all of the 30 NBA teams, especially from a betting perspective.
Bet the over on the win total, and you are planting your flag in that team’s arena that you believe in them beyond a shadow of a doubt. Take the under, and you’re shoveling dirt on the grave of a season that hasn’t even begun yet. Is that a bit dramatic? Yes! But that’s the fun of it.
Enough preamble! Let’s take a look at all of the NBA win totals at BetMGM and how I see those numbers playing out this season from a betting lens. I’m also including predictions from John Hollinger on how he sees the West and East playing out.
Speaking of over/ unders, don’t forget that the No Dunks crew always does a great job of breaking down win totals before each season in the Classic Factory. Watch for the East predictions here and the West picks here.
Let’s jump into all of the fun and exciting action.
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Atlanta Hawks | 36-46 last season | O/U: 36.5
How much can we believe in this Hawks team? They’ve changed out coaches and running mates while never putting together any true glimmer of progress. This team is so frustrating because they have a good amount of talent, but it never amounts to anything of significance.
The confidence: Quin Snyder is a good coach, Trae Young is a special offensive talent and this team was pretty good on offense (12th).
The concern: This team has grossly underperformed since its conference finals appearance in 2021. The Hawks moved Dejounte Murray for not a lot, and they don’t seem to be willing to do what it takes to play any semblance of decent defense.
Hollinger’s prediction: 39-43
My over/under prediction: Slight under
Boston Celtics | 64-18 last season | O/U: 58.5
The defending champs look poised to be the first team to repeat as champions since the 2017 and 2018 Warriors. In case anyone forgot, this team had such a dominant and brisk walk through the postseason after having a historic regular season on offense. To bet the under here means you believe they’ll win at least six fewer games, and I’m not sure what that would be based on.
The confidence: This team returns everybody from the best offense in NBA history. In addition to bringing back the core from last season, they now have that championship understanding of how to remain calm and pace themselves.
The concern: Kristaps Porzingis is going to be hurt for a while, and no team has repeated since 2017. Maybe you believe in league parity.
Hollinger’s prediction: 62-20
No Dunks’ 🔒: Trey locked in the over
My over/under prediction: Easy over
Brooklyn Nets | 32-50 last season | O/U: 19.5
The Nets pulled a Sonny Weaver Jr. in “Draft Day” and got their damn picks back. So now they don’t have to pretend that winning is a real possibility and it behooves them to do so. This team is headed for a season of tanking.
The confidence: Perhaps you watched Ben Simmons in the offseason and believe he’s back to All-Star form? Maybe you went to LSU and love Cam Thomas that much?
The concern: In hitting the over? Lots. In being too good to hit the under? Not a lot. They’ll be cobbling together rotations by January.
Hollinger’s prediction: 21-61
My over/under prediction: Easy under
Charlotte Hornets | 21-61 last season | O/U: 30.5
These might not be your slightly older brother’s Hornets. Last year, they looked much more like the Bobcats. Now, they have an entire new regime from ownership to front office to coach. That said, these Hornets, if healthy, could surprise some people.
The confidence: A healthy LaMelo Ball is usually good for competing around a .500 record, and Charles Lee, the new coach, might have the right brand of basketball for this young squad.
The concern: Ball’s ankles might be soup inside, and the Hornets don’t have much to build from in the first place.
Hollinger’s prediction: 23-59
No Dunks’ 🔒: Tas locked in the over
My over/under prediction: Slight under
Chicago Bulls | 39-43 last season | O/U: 27.5
Please tell me the Bulls are going to start properly rebuilding. They can’t trade Zach LaVine’s contract yet, but where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and we’ll see if Nikola Vucevic is still on the team past the trade deadline. But finally, it looks like the Bulls might embrace the tank.
The confidence: They still have talent, especially with Lonzo Ball back. Asking this team to approach 30 wins, even without DeMar DeRozan, is not asking a lot.
The concern: They have injury issues, and their young guys might not be good enough to make up for the losses of DeRozan and Alex Caruso.
Hollinger’s prediction: 27-55
No Dunks’ 🔒: Skeets locked in the under
My over/under prediction: Slight under
Cleveland Cavaliers | 48-34 last season | O/U: 48.5
As much flak as many of us give this team, they’re still a 50-win squad when they’re healthy. We’ll see if new coach Kenny Atkinson can unlock some offensive help for them or if they’ll need to trade a starter or two before the deadline.
The confidence: They have good depth, and the quartet of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen is really good in the regular season.
The concern: There have been so many trade rumors and injuries that we may not see the most cohesive team to challenge for 50 wins in the East.
Hollinger’s prediction: 56-26
My over/under prediction: Over
Dallas Mavericks | 50-32 last season | O/U: 49.5
The Mavs had a surprise run to the Finals, and then they went out this summer and brought in Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes. And they’ll have a full training camp and preseason with Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington.
The confidence: They have Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and a deep roster of help. This Mavs team is loaded after their Finals run.
The concern: Maybe Klay and Kyrie aren’t healthy, and maybe the defensive turnaround after the trade deadline was flukey.
Hollinger’s prediction: 51-31
My over/under prediction: Easy over
Denver Nuggets | 57-25 last season | O/U: 51.5
The Nuggets got a little cheap with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and decided replacing him with Russell Westbrook in 2024 would fix it. Luckily, they still have the best player in the world and this team still has a very good starting five.
The confidence: Jokic should be good for 40 wins on his own. Then you just need Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and a couple of role guys to ensure you 12 more wins.
The concern: Murray looked terrible this summer and maybe Christian Braun or Peyton Watson can’t actually fill in for KCP.
Hollinger’s prediction: 49-33
No Dunks’ 🔒: Tas and Skeets locked in the over
My over/under prediction: Slight under
Detroit Pistons | 14-68 last season | O/U: 25.5
They can’t be that bad again, right?! With Monty Williams gone and no longer actively diluting their chances, J.B. Bickerstaff has a chance to mold this team’s youth. They also brought in a couple of adults to help the young guys.
The confidence: Cade Cunningham might be good enough to grab you wins now, and they do have a plethora of young players to be excited about. Plus, as mentioned above, they brought in a couple of veterans to help.
The concern: Unfortunately, those veterans are Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr., so it’s a lower ceiling. I’m not convinced they were actually 14 wins bad.
Hollinger’s prediction: 28-54
My over/under prediction: Slight over
Golden State Warriors | 46-36 last season | O/U: 43.5
Everybody is down on the Warriors because of the departure of Klay Thompson and Chris Paul. I actually think they got a little better and definitely added some depth.
The confidence: This was a good team when Draymond Green wasn’t missing a lot of games for suspensions. Steph Curry is still scary, and their added pieces fit well.
The concern: Is Jonathan Kuminga their second option? Can this team play good defense consistently? Draymond could go Draymond at any time.
Hollinger’s prediction: 46-36
My over/under prediction: Easy over
Houston Rockets | 41-41 last season | O/U: 43.5
The furious 16-7 finish to end the season showed how that potential can be harnessed into something tangible on the court. Now, this Rockets team, coached by Ime Udoka, expects to win and find their way into at least the Play-In.
The confidence: They can really play defense, Alperen Sengun looked excellent running the show and Jalen Green turned a corner over the last 23 games of the season.
The concern: They still can’t really score, and Green might have just had a good couple of months rather than what to expect moving forward.
Hollinger’s prediction: 43-39
My over/under prediction: Slight under
Indiana Pacers | 47-35 last season | O/U: 46.5
Is this Pacers team actually as good as we saw last season? Or are you paying a tax on their win total because they ended up in the conference finals? Did they do anything to keep up in the East? Or is a full preseason with Pascal Siakam enough?
The confidence: They know their identity, and they love to run people out of the gym. That can be extremely hard to deal with on random nights in the NBA.
The concern: They can’t play a lick of defense, and we saw the offense is actually fragile whenever Tyrese Haliburton gets hurt. Can they correct either of those two things?
Hollinger’s prediction: 44-38
My over/under prediction: Slight under
LA Clippers | 51-31 last season | O/U: OTB
The Clippers are off the board after the Kawhi Leonard news!
The confidence: If healthy, you can absolutely believe in Kawhi Leonard as the best player, with James Harden as the lead guard. They have good depth, too.
The concern: Kawhi is already out indefinitely, Paul George is gone and the West is too good to guarantee them a good number of wins.
Hollinger’s prediction: 36-46
Los Angeles Lakers | 47-35 last season | O/U: 43.5
I’ve been wondering aloud how differently we’d feel about the Lakers if the Nuggets – their nemesis roadblock – didn’t exist in this form. The Lakers went with continuity on the roster and added JJ Redick on the sidelines.
The confidence: They have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and they’re allegedly approaching offense in a new, more modern way of playing. This is the first year in some time that they’ve pretty much brought everybody back.
The concern: We got an unspeakably healthy season from LeBron and AD. If that changes back to injury central, they don’t have what is required to survive more than a couple of games.
Hollinger’s prediction: 45-37
My over/under prediction: Easy over
Memphis Grizzlies | 27-55 last season | O/U: 47.5
Are the Grizzlies back? Ja Morant is back, and we saw briefly how he galvanized them last year. Rookie big man Zach Edey might be coming around, too. He’s looking good, and this team isn’t far removed from winning 50 games.
The confidence: Morant just changes everything for them, and getting him next to Marcus Smart could be a lot of fun.
The concern: What if Ja isn’t available for extended stretches again? They don’t have Tyus Jones to keep them afloat anymore.
Hollinger’s prediction: 40-42
No Dunks’ 🔒: Tas locked in the under
My over/under prediction: Slight under
T.J. McConnell has been doing his thing for years.
But in this new NBA climate, he and other vital role players — Jaden McDaniels, Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo, etc. — get the love they deserve.
In the era of parity, teams don’t have a shot without them.
https://t.co/MjGRnKPMHu— Marcus Thompson II (@ThompsonScribe) October 17, 2024
Miami Heat | 46-36 last season | O/U: 44.5
Do you still believe in #HeatCulture? Jimmy Butler is back and sans shenanigans… for now. Erik Spoelstra is the best coach in the NBA, and the Heat mostly were just banged up.
The confidence: Butler is that guy. Bam Adebayo is one of the best defenders in the world. And they always find diamonds in the rough.
The concern: Butler might be washed, they rely on Tyler Herro too much and the East may have passed them by with how old everything looks.
Hollinger’s prediction: 42-40
No Dunks’ 🔒: Trey locked in the over
My over/under prediction: Over
Milwaukee Bucks | 49-33 last season | O/U: 50.5
Milwaukee might be the sneaky candidate to challenge the Celtics in the East. Remember, the Bucks dealt with a lot of drama last season. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard should be the perfect pick-and-roll combination.
The confidence: They have Dame and Giannis! They brought in good role players like Delon Wright and Gary Trent Jr., and this team has a better understanding of their roles.
The concern: Doc Rivers did a bad job as coach last season, and there’s always the possibility that Dame and Giannis just don’t vibe on the court together. Khris Middleton is also hurt to start the season.
Hollinger’s prediction: 46-36
No Dunks’ 🔒: Tas locked in the over
My over/under prediction: Slight over
Minnesota Timberwolves | 56-26 last season | O/U: 52.5
This team almost had the 1-seed in the West and made the conference finals for the first time since 2004. They made a big trade to bring in Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for Karl-Anthony Towns. Did the Wolves improve?
The confidence: Anthony Edwards is a superstar, and Rudy Gobert can still do it defensively. DiVincenzo might win Sixth Man for them.
The concern: Randle seems like a bad fit for what they want to do, and we could see Ant take a step back before he can channel it into a step forward.
Hollinger’s prediction: 51-31
My over/under prediction: Slight over
New Orleans Pelicans | 49-33 last season | O/U: 46.5
They traded for Dejounte Murray, and we’re seeing Zion Williamson look the healthiest we’ve ever seen him. They were a great defense last season and now have the firepower to be an elite offense.
The confidence: Zion is a monster, Brandon Ingram is in a contract year and Murray brings real activity defensively to their backcourt.
The concern: They don’t really have big men depth, and teams are always wondering if Zion can stay healthy.
Hollinger’s prediction: 47-35
My over/under prediction: Slight over
New York Knicks | 50-32 last season | O/U: 54.5
Bing Bong! The Knicks went out and brought in Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, and it has the city buzzing. The question is whether or not KAT can be good enough defensively for them. The Knicks are for real.
The confidence: So much firepower led by Jalen Brunson, and you have to remember how great this team was when OG Anunoby played.
The concern: Tom Thibodeau is running a short bench in NYC. Something could go horribly wrong.
Hollinger’s prediction: 51-31
No Dunks’ 🔒: Skeets locked in the under
My over/under prediction: Slight under
Oklahoma City Thunder| 57-25 last season | O/U: 57.5
Sound the alarm! Put this town on alert! The OKC Thunder are here to wreck things. We’re seeing them start out with Isaiah Hartenstein injured to begin the season, but the Thunder are much more loaded with Hartenstein and Alex Caruso.
The confidence: They might be the Celtics of the West. This team, if healthy, should win 60-plus games this season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an MVP candidate.
The concern: They still have quite a bit of inexperience, and it’s not easy to just jump up toward 60 wins.
Hollinger’s prediction: 61-21
No Dunks’ 🔒: Tas and Trey locked in the over
My over/under prediction: Easy over
Orlando Magic | 47-35 last season | O/U: 47.5
The Magic surprised a lot of people last season, continuing their ability to play elite defense despite being so young. Orlando has a star in Paolo Banchero, and they wrestled Kentavious Caldwell-Pope away from Denver.
The confidence: They have a defensive identity and commitment opposing teams hate facing on random nights. Banchero and Franz Wagner could be a great duo.
The concern: They still struggle to score, can’t really shoot and don’t have a real point guard to keep things organized.
Hollinger’s prediction: 47-35
No Dunks’ 🔒: Skeets locked in the over
My over/under prediction: Slight over
Philadelphia 76ers| 47-35 last season | O/U: 50.5
Check out this revamped and loaded Sixers roster! Paul George headlines an offseason of overhaul on this squad, and it has everybody very excited about it. Can a Big Three of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and PG get toward a top seed?
The confidence: They can play defense, and we know just how capable the former MVP big man can carry this team when called upon.
The concern: I’m worried Embiid won’t come close to 65 games played this season, and then we’d need to see them play a different brand of basketball. PG is already hurt, too.
Hollinger’s prediction: 50-32
My over/under prediction: Slight under
Phoenix Suns | 49-33 last season | O/U: 47.5
The Suns went out this summer and got themselves an elite regular season coach in Mike Budenholzer and two point guards they were sorely missing a year ago. After getting embarrassed in the playoffs, they seem more serious than ever.
The confidence: This team is still loaded with talent, and their depth of role players is much greater now. Plus, Mike Budenholzer has had four of his last five seasons go over 50 wins.
The concern: These stars might not stay healthy, and Jusuf Nurkic could be falling apart. What happens if the stars decide they don’t want to play Bud Ball?
Hollinger’s prediction: 52-30
No Dunks’ 🔒: Trey locked in the over
My over/under prediction: Easy over
Portland Trail Blazers | 21-61 last season | O/U: 21.5
We’re seeing the Blazers in Year 2 of a rebuild, and even if you like their young talent, you have to know this team is embracing a lot of losses.
The confidence: There are some good veterans here, and the youth should be able to develop quite nicely if everybody can stay on the court. Scoot Henderson could have a breakout second season and give them a boost.
The concern: You’re relying on Deandre Ayton to be a veteran presence some nights, and the young guys have struggled to stay on the court. Chauncey Billups might be a bad coach.
Hollinger’s prediction: 20-62
My over/under prediction: Easy under
In the short history of the NBA Play-In Tournament, we have never had a 50-loss team qualify.
That might change this upcoming season, according to @johnhollinger.
“On paper, it’s not looking good.”
More in his 2024-25 season predictions: https://t.co/UM2Z29Vn7J pic.twitter.com/UoHDGKwm1e
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) October 18, 2024
Sacramento Kings| 46-36 last season | O/U: 46.5
The Kings decided that the status quo with the roster wasn’t enough this summer, so they brought in DeMar DeRozan to pair with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. The question is whether that’s enough to ensure top-10 status in the crowded West.
The confidence: This team has been good for two years now, and they just added a major weapon into the mix. They could win a lot of fourth quarters with DeRozan and Fox.
The concern: They either commit to being elite offensively or just solid on that end while trying to play team defense. Balance is good, but they’re rarely overwhelming that way.
Hollinger’s prediction: 44-38
My over/under prediction: Slight under
San Antonio Spurs| 22-60 last season | O/U: 35.5
The Spurs brought in Chris Paul to throw the ball to Victor Wembanyama, and we’re all awaiting the ascension of this historic talent. The Spurs just rolled the ball out last season for the young guys but should have much more direction this season.
The confidence: Look at what Wemby did without CP3 and Harrison Barnes’ veteran help. The wins will start rolling in soon.
The concern: CP3 isn’t exactly a picture of availability, as he’s almost 40, and the rest of the team is still incredibly young.
Hollinger’s prediction: 37-45
No Dunks’ 🔒: Skeets locked in the under
My over/under prediction: Slight over
Toronto Raptors | 25-57 last season | O/U: 29.5
No Pascal Siakam or OG Anunoby for the entire year with them elsewhere, so this is finally Scottie Barnes’ squad. What does that mean for him and the supporting staff? Remember, they only got to 25 wins because they outright tanked to protect a pick they still lost.
The confidence: Their starting five is pretty good, and they do really have some good talent with Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett. Plus, the East is pretty weak.
The concern: The depth is super questionable, and they may get enticed to tank again with this star draft class.
Hollinger’s prediction: 32-50
No Dunks’ 🔒: Tas locked in the over
My over/under prediction: Slight over
Utah Jazz | 31-51 last season | O/U: 28.5
Once again, the Jazz appear to be stuck between wanting to compete and wanting to tank. Lauri Markkanen is too good to tank, so they’d have to shut him down or trade him if they want to attack the 2025 Draft Lottery properly.
The confidence: Will Hardy is an excellent coach, and this squad has some good talent. Asking them to get to 30 wins again isn’t out of the question.
The concern: They should and probably will turn it over to the youth on this roster again at some point in the season. It’s just a matter of when that happens.
Hollinger’s prediction: 26-56
No Dunks’ 🔒: Trey and Skeets locked in the under
My over/under prediction: Slight over
Washington Wizards | 15-67 last season | O/U: 20.5
This team was terrible last year, to the point that we had a real free-fall race to the bottom of the league between them and a team that lost 28 straight games. The Wizards might be even worse this season without Tyus Jones running the point.
The confidence: Maybe you believe in veterans like Kyle Kuzma, Jonas Valaciunas and Malcolm Brogdon. I do, too. But I also do not see this team even getting to 20 wins.
The concern: They’re in the process of rebuilding, and any flash of the Jordan Poole we saw a year ago is the right amount of malaise to keep their wins in the teens.
Hollinger’s prediction: 14-68
No Dunks’ 🔒: Trey locked in the under
My over/under prediction: Easy under
( Photo: Sean M. Haffrey / Getty Images )
