The latest data from the Housing Industry Association (HIA) indicates that the Australian new home market is showing signs of stabilisation, with home sales unchanged in September compared to August. According to HIA Economist Maurice Tapang, “market confidence in new home building is returning,” which is an important indicator for agents working in the residential property sector.
The HIA’s New Home Sales report, which surveys large-volume home builders across Australia’s five largest states, serves as a key predictor of future detached home construction. Over the last 12 months, new home sales have risen by 8.6%, pointing to an upward trend in the market.
Sales growth in South Australia (+32.4%), Western Australia, and Victoria helped offset declines in New South Wales and Queensland during September. For real estate agents, this data suggests stronger market activity in certain regions, while others may see reduced demand in the near term due to earlier pull-forward sales driven by upcoming National Construction Code (NCC) changes.
As consumer confidence improves , with the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute reporting the highest confidence levels in over two years, Mr Tapang anticipates this will further support new home construction, though agents should be mindful that changes may take time to materialise in the housing market.
Key insights for agents include the fact that while population growth, low unemployment, and real wages growth are expected to drive the market forward, some volatility may persist.
Mr Tapang noted that the market likely “reached its trough” in mid-2024, and improving household conditions will help push it out of the downturn.
Looking at quarterly sales figures, Queensland experienced a 50.2% rise compared to the previous year, while South Australia saw an 18.5% increase. In contrast, states like New South Wales (-25.5%), Western Australia (-18.4%), and Victoria (-11.7%) saw declines. For agents, this means keeping an eye on state-level trends to better align sales strategies with local market conditions.
As the housing market continues to evolve, real estate agents can benefit from understanding these regional dynamics and anticipating shifts in client demand, particularly as economic conditions and interest rates stabilise.
