By Chris Kirschner, Zack Meisel and Eno Sarris
The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians are set to meet in an ALCS that’s a rematch of the 2022 ALDS won by New York. The Yankees enter this series after putting away Kansas City in four games, while the Guardians finished off division rival Detroit in five. The best-of-seven ALCS begins Monday in New York, with the winner advancing to the World Series to face the Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Mets.
Game times
Game 1: Guardians at Yankees, Monday, Oct. 14, 7:37 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/Max
Game 2: Guardians at Yankees, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 7:37 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/Max
Game 3: Yankees at Guardians, Thursday, Oct. 17, Time TBD, TBS
Game 4: Yankees at Guardians, Friday, Oct. 18, Time TBD, TBS
Game 5: Yankees at Guardians, Saturday, Oct. 19, Time TBD, TBS (if necessary)
Game 6: Guardians at Yankees, Monday, Oct. 21, Time TBD, TBS (if necessary)
Game 7: Guardians at Yankees, Tuesday, Oct. 22, Time TBD, TBS (if necessary)
Pitching matchups
In the rotation, you have to give the edge to the Yankees. Gerrit Cole has pushed his sitting fastball all the way back to where it was last year pre-injury, and even though the movement and command aren’t quite vintage (nor is the strikeout rate, with only eight K’s in his 12 postseason innings), he’s looked pretty good in his starts. Cole will be able to start two games in this series and the Yankees hope he’ll give the bullpen a rest with an excellent, deep start. How far into games Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt can get may inspire some questions, but generally the starters in pinstripes are more likely to go deep into games and keep them close enough for the Bronx bashers to put them over the top.
The Guardians counter with Tanner Bibee, who has used two excellent breaking balls and good command to put up an ERA in the low 3s in his first 300 big-league innings, reminiscent of more than one previous Cleveland ace. He’s on the same schedule as Cole, unless the Guardians want to play around with rest days to make the most of their No. 1. Matthew Boyd threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings over two starts in the ALDS, and Alex Cobb was competent if not dominant, but they’re a step behind the Yankees’ back end of the rotation.
The real hero on the Guardians’ staff is Cade Smith. The rookie — who should probably get more attention for Rookie of the Year hardware than he will — threw 6 1/3 innings in the Division Series with only one run allowed. He appeared in every game, which was a blessing for Cleveland that will be almost impossible to replicate in a seven-game series. Of course, a bullpen that logged the best ERA in the regular season and threw 58 percent of the innings against Detroit in the Division Series has other heroes as well — it’s not just Emmanuel Clase — but it will be tested harder now. Can the Guardians’ relievers keep up the pace in a seven-game matchup, especially in the middle of the series, when they’ll face three straight games with no rest?
The Yankees’ bullpen is maybe not as bad as some thought; they put up 15 2/3 scoreless innings against the Royals, and their core relievers — Tommy Kahnle, Clay Holmes, and Luke Weaver — have seemingly found their best roles. Because they have some firepower of their own in the ’pen, and probably the better starters, the Yankees own the overall pitching advantage. — Sarris
Why the Yankees will win
After being a major concern for most of the regular season, the Yankees have figured out their bullpen. Mostly led by Weaver, Kahnle and Holmes, the Yankees’ bullpen shut down the Royals in the ALDS. Their relievers held Kansas City to a .143 batting average and recorded 15 strikeouts over 15 2/3 scoreless innings. The Guardians had the best bullpen in the regular season, but if the Yankees’ bullpen can continue its dominance, it could at least close the gap in what is Cleveland’s biggest strength.
The Yankees have a clear advantage offensively. The Guardians simply don’t have the firepower that they possess. If New York continues to get great at-bats from Gleyber Torres, Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera, it would put immense pressure on Cleveland because Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, two of the three best hitters in MLB this season, are due for breakout offensive performances. If those two start slugging, Cleveland will have problems keeping up. — Kirschner
Why the Guardians will win
Leave it to the Guardians fans in Section 446 who started the chant during the sixth inning of Game 5 on Saturday afternoon: “I believe in Stephen Vogt!” OK, they also chanted some expletives in regards to Tarik Skubal and the Yankees, but Vogt has implausibly steered a team many projected to win 75-85 games to the ALCS. The Guardians will follow the same script — a heavy dose of the league’s best bullpen and just enough timely hitting — that allowed them to eke out a series win against the scorching-hot Tigers. There are three free-spending, big-market MLB darlings remaining in the playoffs in the Yankees, Mets and Dodgers. The Guardians would love nothing more than to spoil the ratings bonanza over which the league is likely salivating. Plus, well, it’s been 76 years since the franchise has won a title. Even though the Yankees’ 15-year spell probably feels like 76 years to New Yorkers, Cleveland is due. — Meisel
Check back later for series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.
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Stanton has been one of the Yankees’ best postseason performers in franchise history. His .987 OPS ranks fourth all time (minimum 30 games), with only Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Reggie Jackson ahead of him on the leaderboard. Stanton was locked in at the plate against the Royals; he went 6-for-16 in the ALDS, with three extra-base hits, including a go-ahead home run in Game 3.
Although Stanton has hit fifth in the Yankees’ order, recent performance suggests moving him to the cleanup spot might be advantageous. It would force opposing pitchers to face the full weight of Soto, Judge and Stanton back-to-back-to-back, rather than having catcher Austin Wells break up the sequence.
Given the way Stanton has been swinging the bat, he has the potential to carry the Yankees to their first World Series appearance since 2009 all by himself. — Kirschner
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With clutch home run, Giancarlo Stanton once again shows he’s built for October
Guardians player spotlight: Tanner Bibee, RHP
In his second big-league start, a wide-eyed Bibee found himself on the mound at Yankee Stadium, opposite Cole. That was the infancy of what became a season worthy of a second-place finish in the AL Rookie of the Year balloting. This time, even with the higher stakes and the added pressure that comes with an October assignment in the Bronx, a potential matchup between the two in Game 2 shouldn’t feel as daunting. Bibee pitched well in his first taste of the postseason, as he allowed two runs in 8 2/3 innings in a couple of starts in the ALDS. The Guardians will have plenty of pitching plans to sort out, but Bibee taking the ball when his turn comes up is a certainty. — Meisel
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Tanner Bibee has a fiery competitive streak. The Guardians are counting on it in Game 1
Tale of the Tape
Yankees top performers
| PLAYER | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lineup |
CF |
58 HR, 144 RBI, .701 SLG, 223 OPS+ |
10.8 |
|
|
Rotation |
RHP |
3.41 ERA, 121 ERA+, 9.4 K/9 |
2 |
|
|
Bullpen |
RHP |
2.89 ERA, 142 ERA+, 103 Ks |
1.9 |
|
|
Fielding |
C |
22 CS, 96th percentile framing |
18.9 (dWAR) |
Guardians top performers
| PLAYER | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lineup |
3B |
39 HR, 39 SB, 143 OPS+ |
6.8 |
|
|
Rotation |
LHP |
2.72 ERA, 151 ERA+, 10.4 K/9 |
0.7 |
|
|
Bullpen |
RHP |
0.61 ERA, 47 Saves, 674 ERA+ |
4.5 |
|
|
Fielding |
2B |
20 DRS, 7 UZR |
15.7 (dWAR) |
Who has the edge?
| Teams | R/G | SP ERA | RP ERA | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.40 (14th) |
4.40 (24th) |
2.57 (1st) |
99 (18th) |
|
|
5.03 (3rd) |
3.85 (11th) |
3.62 (6th) |
115 (4th) |
Yankees must-reads
How a dark memory from the end of last season motivated Yankees, Aaron Judge to ALDS glory
Inside Aaron Judge’s swing change that helped propel him to another monster season
Five takeaways on the Yankees’ regular season and what’s next in the postseason
Why Aaron Judge called players-only meeting that helped spark Yankees’ September run
Inside the Yankees’ scouting and development of Luis Gil
Guardians must-reads
Guardians’ path to a long-awaited World Series starts and ends with their dominant bullpen
The unsung heroes who propelled the Guardians to October
How the Guardians improbably marched to the playoffs
The stories behind the Guardians’ breakout stars in the bullpen
Inside Stephen Vogt’s journey to becoming Cleveland’s manager
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Ranking the 4 remaining possible World Series matchups, from least to most interesting
(Top image: Juan Soto: Luke Hales / Getty Images; Steven Kwan: Keith Gillett / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images)
