With a two-game losing streak and the prospect of losing the AFC East lead with a third, the Buffalo Bills won’t be short of motivation on Monday night. The Bills are up against a similarly reeling New York Jets team, but one that made the desperate move to fire head coach Robert Saleh with the idea of saving their season.
Keeping an eye on how the Jets react to it and how the Bills react to the Jets’ new structure is one of the most intriguing pieces to the matchup. And there are plenty of Bills personnel items to monitor leading up to and during the game as well.
Here is our Week 6 Bills notebook in the buildup toward a critical Jets game.
Before trading for a WR, it might be worth seeing what they have in house
The Bills’ loss to the Texans and the lack of productivity from the receiver group over the last two games have certainly been eye-opening. Khalil Shakir has been their runaway top option from the group, and rookie Keon Coleman has shown some flashes, but the rest of the receiver room has been a major disappointment through five games.
The Bills did label Shakir questionable for Monday’s game after a limited session on Saturday, though judging how they’ve handled some injuries recently, it might be asking for too much, too soon, to get him to play against the Jets. After seeing the practice week, I would guess that he’ll be inactive, though the following game against the Titans looks like an ideal spot to return if there are no setbacks. Once again, that opens up a bunch of questions about the receiver room without Shakir.
Bills HC Sean McDermott says DT Ed Oliver is out against the Jets.
RB James Cook, WR Khalil Shakir, DT Austin Johnson and NCB Taron Johnson will be limited at practice Saturday and questionable for the game.
— Joe Buscaglia (@JoeBuscaglia) October 12, 2024
The loud calls are for the Bills to trade for a receiver, and that might well be their course of action at some point in the next few weeks. However, they do have a few intriguing options on their practice squad they might want to see in action before they take that route and unload a draft asset to make it happen.
GO DEEPER
Looking at the Bills’ trade options to fill the wide receiver void
The Bills called up Tyrell Shavers last week, and he had limited action on offense without much of an impact. But they liked him all summer for how well he could play all three positions. KJ Hamler, a second-round pick in 2020, certainly has the shiftiness that the Bills have lacked through the rest of their receiver room without Shakir, and he even has a speed element to his game from the slot receiver position. Some drops and misfires on punt and kickoff returns ultimately landed him on the cut list, but they still like him.
Then there’s Jalen Virgil, who spent the entire summer with the Broncos and even made their roster as an undrafted rookie in 2022. He can play at Z receiver. The 6-foot-1, 210-pound receiver offers some size and shiftiness, and he chose to leave Denver for Buffalo because he reportedly felt he had a better chance to make the 53-man roster at some point. A chance to make that impression could happen on Monday.
If Shakir is out, and with health across the roster at most other positions, it would not be a surprise if the Bills elevated a pair of receivers to help inject some life into the room.
Is there such a thing as a post-firing winning bump?
You can only speculate so much about how the firing of Saleh will affect the Jets in this game and the rest of the season. Statistics show that teams have a higher winning percentage after their original coach was fired than before the firing, but how much does that psychologically play into the first game?
The Athletic caught up with six current Bills players who have been on a team that changed head coaches in the middle of the season, asking what it’s like in the building after it happens, and in some cases, what that first game feels like after a coaching change.
On a midseason coaching change:
DE Dawuane Smoot (Jaguars, Urban Meyer — 2021): I mean, it’s honestly like a case-to-case basis. I mean, what happened to their coach, I don’t know how beloved and how the locker room was. I have no idea. But for us, in 2021, it was a little bit of a relief. It was a little bit different. Everyone knows what we went through during that time. Well, there was a lot of optimism around it.
OL Will Clapp (Chargers, Brandon Staley — 2023): I’ll be honest. When you go into those situations at that point, when I was going through it last year, like everybody was fighting for their chance in the league still. So you can’t just mail it in. Like, every day is an interview to show everybody else what you can do.
WR Curtis Samuel (Panthers, Ron Rivera — 2019): I mean, it’s tough, just because, you know, depending on how many years you were with them they probably drafted you, probably have some type of bond, some type of connection with your coach. So, you know, that sucks to go through that.
S Kareem Jackson (Texans, Gary Kubiak — 2013; and Broncos, Nathaniel Hackett — 2022): The leaders of the team, they try to come together and just try to be more vocal and help and guys that really may not understand it, which is typically kind of the younger guys, or just trying to put things in perspective and just understanding that you’ve still got a season to play. So for the most part, your leaders have to, kind of step in and continue to try to lead and maybe bite off a bigger piece of the pie.
DT Austin Johnson (Chargers, Staley — 2023): It gives you a little bit more drive sometimes. But it’s kind of hard to say, you know, not knowing what’s going on over there on their side.
LB Nicholas Morrow (Raiders, Jon Gruden — 2021): I think the biggest thing was just the locker room. I think everybody was close-knit in that locker room. Everybody had a pretty humble spirit. I think that’s what, in the end, got us over it.
On the first game after a coach firing:
Clapp: If anything, it probably does crank up the intensity because everybody’s counting you out, and you’ve got to go out there and show, ‘Hey, we’re still some of the best in the world, and we’re going to do it.’
Smoot: It’s a lot more energy, definitely a lot more juice. It’s kind of like that feeling like you have nothing to lose, you know what I’m saying? You just kind of go out there and shoot your shot. I mean, honestly, at this point, cause you already know when it’s a coaching change and a regime change, next year, it’s like kind of everyone’s job is up for the taking.
Johnson: It could either go one of two ways. It can either just go really well and (you) play free, or you could just think about it and not play as well. So I mean, it’s just two ends of the spectrum. So come Monday night, we’ll see.
Smoot: For us, our confidence is knowing that right now, they’re kind of on the back foot. I mean, you kind of corner somebody — you’ve got to either finish them or you’re going to let them come back. So, at this point, we’re looking to finish.
Is this the week for Taron Johnson’s return?
When Taron Johnson suffered a fractured forearm in Week 1, the Bills immediately felt his loss in the starting lineup. The injury carried a loose four-to-six-week timeline for a return, so with it being a somewhat close call, the team elected against placing him on injured reserve to keep the slight hope that he could beat the four-game minimum absence he’d have if put on IR. It was also a complicated decision because teams are permitted only eight players designated to return during the regular season. So without a pressing need at a different position, the Bills kept Johnson on the 53-man roster, despite him missing a full four games.
But the good news is that the long wait for their star nickel’s return looks like it will end on Monday night. Johnson shed his red non-contact jersey on Thursday — a great sign for his potential availability — and practiced in full. Johnson is an asset to the Bills in any matchup, but specifically against the Jets, who have two different styles of running backs in Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, Johnson’s presence in run defending either style throughout his career will go a long way.
And certainly against a Jets passing attack that has had some difficulties this season, adding one of the best nickels in the NFL to an already assignment-sound outside cornerback group will be a strength for the Bills defense.
Should they start Cole Bishop sooner than later?
With the Bills attempting to get away from a two-game losing streak, it’s fair to wonder about changes within the starting lineup. It might happen as soon as this week at receiver, but safety is another one to keep an eye on. With the return of Taylor Rapp this week, the Bills will likely shift back to their early-season duo of Rapp and Damar Hamlin.
However, how long that remains the top duo is an entirely different question. Over his first five games, Hamlin has struggled in one distinct area — giving too much of a cushion on some plays, with a hesitance to play fast and instinctively. And although he will keep everything in front of him, he’s also allowing plays to happen in front of him that a more aggressive safety might be in better position to stop.
That’s where Bishop, who will likely be best remembered for the blown coverage on the 67-yard touchdown pass to Nico Collins against the Texans, comes in. That was undoubtedly a rough first impression for the second-round rookie. But safety is one of those positions where you don’t see everything they do in-game unless you specifically watch for it, or you review the all-22. And from the coaches film, Bishop looked like a player who settled in well after a very bumpy first quarter.
He was consistently communicating with those around him, playing hunches where he deemed appropriate and playing with more physicality than he did against the Ravens. Bishop was not afraid to get up in the play as quickly as possible when cued. I would even argue that Bishop had a far better day than Hamlin, even considering the long touchdown. For those reasons, the Bills should legitimately consider making the rookie’s place in the starting lineup permanent — or at least begin to work him in on some series throughout the game.
Projected practice squad elevations: WR KJ Hamler, WR Jalen Virgil
Projected inactives: WR Khalil Shakir, OL Will Clapp, DT Ed Oliver, LB Joe Andreessen, LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, CB Ja’Marcus Ingram, S Mike Edwards
Prediction: Bills 23, Jets 16
The Bills will need to sustain an initial punch from a likely highly motivated Jets team, but the Bills are equally as desperate to put the stench of the last two games behind them. The Jets have historically played the Bills tough on defense — and there will likely be plenty of carryover because Jeff Ulrbich will remain the defensive play-caller.
The Bills will need more out of their passing game, but both the good and bad news is that the Jets have been fairly successful in limiting the Bills’ offense over the years. The bad of that is obvious, but the good part is that the Jets will be somewhat predictable in their approach from past years. It will likely be a challenge to move the ball at times.
The big question is what the Jets’ offense will do against the Bills’ defense, which is weirdly — given Buffalo’s struggles on that side — what I think can give them the edge this time. With Johnson likely returning to the lineup, Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams coming off an outstanding game at linebacker, and how well the cornerbacks have played all year, the Bills should have enough to frustrate Aaron Rodgers and their passing attack.
It might be uncomfortably close, but ultimately, I think the Bills can stay one step ahead throughout the contest, leading to a win.
(Photo of KJ Hamler: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images)
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