Iran is a problem, not just for the Middle East but the world. They are inarguably the world’s number-one state sponsor of Islamic terror. They are a brutal theocracy – it’s tempting to say thugocracy – ruled by a cabal of Bronze-Age barbarians led by a vicious Shiite fundamentalist.
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) is the command with responsibility over that part of the globe that includes the Middle East. That would include, of course, Iran. General Frank McKenzie, now retired, the former commander of CENTCOM, believes that Iran’s leadership is growing increasingly desperate – and he makes some good points.
Speaking on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” former CENTCOM commander Frank McKenzie, now retired, said: “Iran is the country that’s in a corner. Their strike against Israel several nights ago was not particularly successful. Their principal ally in the region, Hezbollah has been decapitated, and its own offensive capability is gravely limited. Hezbollah’s is gravely limited. So Iran’s on their back heel.”
Iran, however, still has resources – and a certain geographical advantage. As long as the mullahs hold Iran, any attempt to intercede by force – in short, to invade – would be difficult at best. Iran’s borders on the east are with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan; on the west with Iraq, Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan. None of these are likely places for a launching ground into Iran for an invading force, and if such a force were to try the one avenue open to them – an amphibious landing on the Persian Gulf – that would involve crossing hundreds of miles of mountainous territory to get to Tehran.
There are other options, even for Israel alone, as McKenzie pointed out:
“Israel has a lot of choices here,” McKenzie told host Margaret Brennan. “They can choose for something that would be very escalatory in terms of a strike against the Supreme Leader himself, perhaps, or against the nuclear program, or against the oil infrastructure, or they could look at military intelligence targets. They have a wide variety of options that they can choose from. They have the capability to execute most of those attacks.”
Taking out the Supreme Leader would be a difficult exercise indeed, although Israel has in recent weeks shown itself to be, shall we say, resourceful in such matters.
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But back to Iran’s desperation. There is another factor, of course, that the general does not mention, and that is demographics. Iran’s birth rate is one of the worst in the region, with a fertility rate of only 1.66 children per woman. That is not a recipe for long-term stability, nor is it a good thing for a nation’s cultural survival, although in the case of Iran, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
A desperate Iran, though, may well take desperate measures. Talking about Iran’s nuclear capacity is important, to be sure, but there’s little doubt that North Korea would hesitate to sell Iran a nuclear weapon if they were asked by the mullahs, and they may have already done so. There are indications as well that Iran may be targeting former President Donald Trump.
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Taking out one man, even the Supreme Leader, won’t solve the problem that is Iran; that problem will, in time, have to be solved from within. But that doesn’t mean Israel should stop making martyrs out of Iran’s proxies around the Middle East; Iran may sing the propaganda praises of these Hamas and Hezbollah “martyrs,” but you know what the thing is about martyrs?
They’re dead.
