Dodgers vs. Padres 2024 NLDS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres renew their fierce rivalry in a highly anticipated National League Division Series matchup. The best-of-five series begins Saturday in Los Angeles and features no shortage of storylines, including Shohei Ohtani’s postseason debut. The team left standing after this NL West clash will advance to the NLCS to face the winner of the NLDS between the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets or Milwaukee Brewers.

Game times

Game 1: Padres at Dodgers, Saturday, Oct. 5, 8:38 p.m. ET, FS1

Game 2: Padres at Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 6, 8:03 p.m. ET, FS1

Game 3: Dodgers at Padres, Tuesday, Oct. 8, Time TBD, FOX/FS1

Game 4: Dodgers at Padres, Wednesday, Oct. 9, Time TBD, FOX/FS1 (if necessary)

Game 5: Padres at Dodgers, Friday, Oct. 11, Time TBD, FOX/FS1 (if necessary)

Pitching matchups

Before the Joe Musgrove injury, the pitching balance was tilted far in the Padres’ favor. Their four-man rotation and four-man bullpen have the best park-neutral projections in the postseason, while the Dodgers’ are more middle of the pack, even with the all-important deadline additions of Jack Flaherty and Michael Kopech. You’d take Dylan Cease in any matchup, and while Yoshinobu Yamamoto might be favored over Michael King, it would be close, and the Padres would have clear advantages over the rest of the Dodgers’ rotation.

After the Musgrove injury, it gets a little tighter. Maybe that game is a combination of Martín Pérez and the bullpen, which doesn’t sound all that far from Landon Knack and company on the other side. Except that the Robert Suarez, Tanner Scott, Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada foursome in the Padres ’pen is super legit. They combined for a 2.56 ERA during the regular season, with a 30 percent strikeout rate to support that work. Beyond that foursome, the Padres can deploy Bryan Hoeing and Adrian Morejon. As a righty/lefty tandem, they could absolutely be the glue that papers over the hole created by Musgrove’s departure. They both have multiple fastballs along with standout secondary pitches, as well as a history of going more than one inning — ideal middle guys.

Everyone is talking about the Dodgers’ pitching situation, but if they win it will be in no small part because the front two guys (Flaherty/Yamamoto) shove, and then someone like Knack steps forward. The 27-year-old gets surprising ride given his arm slot, and has a standout slider — stranger things have happened.

But chalk says the Padres’ pitching staff is clearly better.  — Eno Sarris

Why the Dodgers will win

For as glaring as the Dodgers’ issues are, as porous as their starting pitching is and as many injuries as they’ve absorbed, they still had the best record in baseball this season. They boast a lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at the top, a level of firepower that is complicated for any pitching staff to contend with on paper.

Ohtani is playing at his best. Betts is motivated after a disastrous performance last October. This lineup might be as deep as any the Dodgers have had during this run of 12 consecutive postseasons. And their bullpen will benefit from five days off, allowing a deep group to reset.

The Dodgers duked it out with the Padres throughout the second half of the season, culminating in a series at Dodger Stadium during the final week of the regular season. The Padres had their pitching lined up. It didn’t matter, with the Dodgers taking two of three games in the series. — Fabian Ardaya 

Why the Padres will win

The Padres entered October as a trendy pick to win the National League pennant. Against a depleted Braves opponent, they did little to dispel the notion that they might be this postseason’s most complete team.

Even the loss of Joe Musgrove — potentially for the rest of the month and beyond — could bring an opportunity to showcase their depth. The Padres’ rotation still contains Michael King, who continued his ascent toward frontline status in his first playoff start; Dylan Cease, who is capable of wielding no-hit stuff; Yu Darvish, who has shown encouraging signs since his return from an extended absence; and Martín Pérez, who has exceeded expectations since his arrival at the trade deadline. Meanwhile, a loaded bullpen showed in September it can handle a heavy workload. An injury-riddled Dodgers team would gladly trade its pitching situation for San Diego’s.

On the other side of the ball, the Padres possess a relentless offense that blitzed Atlanta lefty Max Fried early in a sweep-sealing performance. No lineup applies a combination of contact, pressure and power like San Diego does. Fernando Tatis Jr., in particular, could be the ultimate trump card. The star right fielder wasn’t around two Octobers ago. Now the Dodgers appear vulnerable, Tatis is again in the middle of everything, and his flair for the dramatic — Tatis has hit 12 home runs in 34 career games at Dodger Stadium — could put the Padres over the top. — Dennis Lin

Check back later for series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.

Dodgers player spotlight: Shohei Ohtani, DH

Could it be anyone else? These are the moments that Ohtani signed in Los Angeles for, and the moments the Dodgers signed him for. His first season as a Dodger has topped even the rosiest of expectations – 54 home runs, 59 stolen bases and perhaps a third MVP award coming his way. For as much as the Dodgers have insisted they do not need Ohtani to carry them, how he responds to the challenge will have repercussions for the rest of the series. If the Padres don’t pitch to Ohtani, will he show enough restraint? Will his ability to use his legs be enough to stir offense from the rest of the lineup? Will his presence open things up for Betts and Freeman, the latter of whom is still dealing with a sprained right ankle?

Ohtani asserted his case as the best player on the planet during the regular season. His September portends well for October, hitting .393 with a 1.225 OPS, 10 home runs and 16 stolen bases as he chased down history and as the Dodgers chased down a division crown.

Plenty of ink has already been spilled about Ohtani. Now begins the next chapter. — Ardaya 

Padres player spotlight: Jurickson Profar, LF

On April 13, after a case of mistaken intention, Dodgers catcher Will Smith called Profar “kind of irrelevant.” The next night in Chavez Ravine, Profar hit a bases-clearing double to lift the Padres to a series-deciding win. A few months later, at age 31, he was a first-time All-Star. He finished the regular season with career highs in home runs (24) and OPS (.839), marrying familiar plate discipline with increased aggressiveness in his swing.

There are bigger stars in the San Diego lineup, but amid his breakout season, Profar has repeatedly come through in key moments and entrenched himself as the club’s No. 3 hitter. On and off the field, he continues to be a feisty leader, capable of galvanizing his teammates toward a common goal. The Padres already won their regular-season series against the Dodgers. The next objective: a repeat of the 2022 NLDS. — Lin

Tale of the Tape

(*Jack Flaherty and Michael Kopech’s stats reflect their time with the Dodgers, not the full 2024 season.) 

Check back later for series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.

Dodgers must-reads

Dave Roberts knows that for the Dodgers, it’s title or bust: ‘It’s expected’

Freddie Freeman begins next chapter after his most arduous season

Why Dodgers’ defense of the NL West is ‘a tick sweeter’

Shohei Ohtani delivers with ridiculous performance: ‘Makes you speechless’

Padres must-reads

Luis Arraez is both admired and maligned — but the Padres don’t debate his value

Fernando Tatis Jr. makes return to postseason, and wait was worth it

The Padres have surged since the All-Star break. The preparation began long before then

Jackson Merrill’s surprising power has altered the course of this Padres season

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(Top image: Shohei Ohtani: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images; Manny Machado: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)