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Good morning. Each Tuesday, we unpack the biggest fantasy football takeaways from the past week and project them forward.
We’re no Jared Goff — who last night set an NFL record by completing 18 of 18 passes — but last week, we nailed Josh Downs (18.2 points) and Justin Fields (31.9) as breakouts for their respective positions.
For Week 5:
Fantasy Reset: Week 5 Prep
As Week 5 approaches, keep an eye on players coming off the PUP list, who are eligible to return, though their timetables differ: RBs Nick Chubb, Keaton Mitchell and Jonathan Brooks; WRs Kendrick Bourne and Odell Beckham Jr.; and TEs T.J. Hockenson and Tyler Higbee. More on that tomorrow.
My Week 5 must-adds from among widely available players, assuming Fields, Downs and RB Bucky Irving aren’t available in your league:
No. 1: Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt. In his first Chiefs game since 2018, he led the backfield in touches (16) and total yards (85) after Carson Steele lost a fumble on the first drive. The early-down touches should be Hunt’s until Isiah Pacheco returns, giving you a starter until at least midseason.
No. 2: Panthers WR Xavier Legette. This year’s first-round pick caught six of 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown, playing 87 percent of snaps. He’s the clear No. 2 for Andy Dalton so long as Adam Thielen remains on the IR.
No. 3: Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks. Drops aside, the talented sophomore saw a career-high 13 targets after Christian Watson left Sunday’s game, leading the team in target share from that point onward while catching two touchdowns. But don’t overspend, since the high-scoring game forced Jordan Love to attempt a career-high 54 passes.
No. 4: Colts RB Trey Sermon. Superstar Jonathan Taylor injured his ankle late in Sunday’s game (it’s officially a “mild” high-ankle sprain) and could miss time. In the meantime, Sermon will run behind the league’s best offensive line.
Deeper leagues: Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby took his seven carries 90 yards and earned himself a larger role going forward. Ravens RB Justice Hill has as many catches (16) as Amari Cooper and Aaron Jones. And Packers TE Tucker Kraft had six catches for 53 yards while playing 86 percent of snaps.
Concerning performance:
Jets WR Garrett Wilson. I keep hearing excuses for Wilson, even long after Zach Wilson’s exit. But with Aaron Rodgers, the third-year WR is averaging just 47.8 yards per game — a lower mark than teammate Allen Lazard (51.5). Despite the Jets insisting a breakout game has been coming, he had his worst fantasy performance this year (five catches, 41 scoreless yards), albeit against Patrick Surtain. The Vikings in Week 5 won’t be any easier.
Promising start:
Texans WR Nico Collins. On the other hand, I’m not hearing enough about the Texans’ superstar. Collins, on pace for over 2,000 receiving yards (currently at 489), has over 100 yards more than the second-ranked WR, Malik Nabers. An imposing receiver at 6-4, 222 pounds, Collins has also posted the fastest-in-game-speed (21.89 MPH) of all ball carriers this season. He’s quietly become a top-five receiver and was a steal in the third round of fantasy drafts. Watch him easily lose a DB:
For more:
Thoughts vs. Reality: Fantasy concerns, addressed
Thought: Should I panic on Breece Hall? Reality: Yes. The Jets RB took 10 carries for just four yards on Sunday and is averaging a mediocre 3.1 yards per carry. As Jake Ciely explained in his waiver wire column, Hall still sees goal-line attempts, but that could change with talented rookie Braelon Allen lurking. Wait for a strong performance, then move Hall before this backfield becomes a 60/40 split.
Thought: I want to make a trade. Reality: Great idea. If you need short-term production:
- Chuba Hubbard, who posted 100-plus rushing yards in back-to-back weeks yet can be had for relatively cheap, due to the expected return of Jonathan Brooks. Carolina has no reason to rush the rookie back and has a strong matchup against Chicago this week.
- Brandon Aiyuk, who has fewer receiving touchdowns then Jared Goff. His fantasy managers are fed up. But while teams have been scheming to stop Aiyuk, he continues to get open. Jauan Jennings’ breakout makes this a true buy-low, especially with the beatable Cardinals next week.
For longer-term plays:
- Christian McCaffrey, who is ramping up his rehab process. I’m expecting him to return for the fantasy playoffs to win you a title, so now is the perfect time to buy — especially with his current managers startled by the news that he has Achilles tendinitis in both legs. High risk/high reward.
- Travis Kelce, who should build off his seven-catch, 89-yard day with Rashee Rice out for the foreseeable future.
Thought: I need to improve my starting tight end. Reality: Unless you trade for Kelce, you can’t. And that’s ok. As KC Joyner explores in detail, tight ends are scoring 16.2 percent fewer points than historic averages. Almost no one is playing well. If T.J. Hockenson can’t be had for cheap, just stick with what you’ve got or add a waiver option like the Packers’ Tucker Kraft.
Another idea? Start talking to your leaguemates about removing the tight end position, switching to a WR/TE format where you can use either position.
What Dianna’s Hearing: Five WRs to watch for Chiefs trade-deadline deal
As we await the update on wide receiver Rashee Rice’s knee injury (early signs point to a significant absence), the Chiefs are having internal discussions about a potential move before the November 5 trade deadline.
Over the past two seasons, Kansas City has acquired wide receivers at the deadline: Kadarius Toney in 2022 and Mecole Hardman in 2023. Those trades paid off — each receiver played key roles in Super Bowl victories a few months after being acquired.
The question now: Will the Chiefs roll the dice again as they chase a three-peat? Names I’m keeping an eye on:
Amari Cooper, Browns
Tee Higgins, Bengals
George Pickens, Steelers
Christian Kirk, Jaguars
DeAndre Hopkins, Titans
As more teams start to consider selling off assets, this list could get longer. I’ll keep you updated.
Back to you, Jacob.
Ask The Athletic
Do you have a fantasy football question? One about your favorite team? Each week, we compile and answer reader questions for a future newsletter. Submit yours here.
This week, one reader asked “What’s the one thing about being an NFL writer that people would be surprised by?”
The Athletic’s Bengals beat writer Paul Dehner Jr.:
“One thing people wouldn’t guess you have to do as an NFL beat writer would be taking attendance at every practice.
“During the regular season, specifically, when you only have 30 minutes to watch the beginning of the practice before rules mandate you are booted out you have to make sure everyone is there. There’s really not much else you get to see anyway. Seems silly, but between potential injuries, unknown issues and just general housekeeping, you want to make sure everyone is accounted for. So you check them off like a third-grade teacher in the morning.”
Thank you for attending the newsletter today, we’ll see you tomorrow.
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