HOUSTON — On Wednesday morning, Viviana Espada entered her parents’ room with a question. Nine-year-olds can’t stay up late on a school night, so she slept through her father’s first American League West title on Tuesday. Upon learning of it when she woke up, Viviana wondered what this meant for one of her favorite traditions.
“Which hotel are we going to spend Halloween in,” she asked her dad.
Expectations in Houston are enormous, a consequence of seven consecutive American League Championship Series appearances and now eight straight seasons of October baseball. Division titles are a first step, not a final destination. Deep postseason runs are demanded, even by kids who think trick-or-treating in hotel ballrooms is routine.
“This is the Astros way,” Joe Espada said. “I take pride in making sure that we have a chance to have Halloween on the road.”
Ensuring it will require a path this team rarely travels. For the first time since 2015, Houston will participate in the wild-card round and not receive a bye to the American League Division Series. Should they advance, the Astros will not have home-field advantage in the ALDS for the first time in nine years.
Bypassing a Wild Card Series entirely is the best-case scenario, but the Astros must still take solace in a favorable situation. They cannot gain any better postseason positioning. The Cleveland Guardians have already secured the American League Central and a first-round bye, too, rendering Houston’s final four regular-season games meaningless. It will allow Espada and his coaching staff to sit some overworked players, exercise caution with a couple of injured ones and — of foremost importance — align their pitching staff for optimal success.
For instance, the Astros will swap Justin Verlander and Ronel Blanco’s spots in the starting rotation, throwing Blanco during Friday’s series opener against the Guardians and slotting Verlander on Saturday.
Game 1 of the Wild Card Series is on Tuesday, meaning Blanco will be on four days of rest by Game 2. Throwing him on Friday increases the likelihood he could either contribute as a multi-inning reliever in the Wild Card Series or have extra rest if Houston needs him to start Game 1 of a potential ALDS. Neither of the Astros’ first two starters in a Wild Card Series — presumably Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown — will be on full rest for Game 1 of an ALDS.
Pushing Verlander to Saturday may also eliminate him from the Astros’ wild-card pitching plans — and perhaps off the roster altogether. Carrying a 41-year-old with two career relief appearances as a long man never made much sense, but doing it when Verlander won’t even be on full rest feels even more illogical.
Sunday’s starter is still undecided, but Espada could construct a bullpen game with Shawn Dubin as an opener and a bevy of low-leverage relievers. None of Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly or Josh Hader should pitch across the final four games, though if any of them would prefer to throw once in the six days before the Wild Card Series, Espada has the freedom to find a spot for them.
Espada wrote a starting lineup on Wednesday that did not feature Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez or Kyle Tucker. Shortstop Jeremy Peña, who has played the fourth-most defensive innings of any major-league player, is destined for downtime in Cleveland, too.
Jeremy Peña has made 156 starts at shortstop this season. (Tim Warner / Getty Images)
Alvarez will not accompany the team to Cleveland for its final regular-season series against the Guardians while continuing to recover from the right knee sprain he sustained on Sunday. He is still unable to participate in any baseball activities, according to Espada. The swelling in his knee remains an issue, but Espada seemed encouraged on Wednesday morning after seeing Alvarez “walk better.” General manager Dana Brown told the team’s flagship radio station that the team will have “more detail” on Alvarez’s condition once the inflammation subsides.
In the immediate aftermath of Alvarez’s injury, Espada had expressed some optimism he could return in some capacity during the Guardians series. Alvarez did not seem as convinced when he addressed reporters on Tuesday afternoon.
Clinching the division that evening eliminated any need to rush Alvarez back. Whether he will be anywhere close to full strength for the Wild Card Series is a legitimate question, but allowing him another seven days to heal can only be beneficial.
Alvarez will remain in Houston alongside outfielder Chas McCormick, another injured player with whom the club can now exercise caution. McCormick will hit off a high-velocity pitching machine and may face live pitching at Minute Maid Park while the major-league team is in Cleveland. He took on-field batting practice on Wednesday for the first time since fracturing a small bone below his right index finger and reported no ill effects.
McCormick’s status may create more wrinkles for Houston’s playoff roster construction. If McCormick is healthy enough to contribute, Espada may consider giving him a more prominent role over Jake Meyers, the defense-first center fielder who entered Wednesday with a .552 OPS since the All-Star break.
Alvarez will not be playing any outfield in October — if he can even play at all — meaning Espada will have to decide between McCormick, Meyers, Mauricio Dubón and Jason Heyward to play left field and center field. Meyers is by far the best defender but lowers the floor of a lineup that is already top-heavy and could feature Alvarez in a compromised state.
Matchups will guide Espada’s decision-making. Figuring them out is another matter. Any of four teams — the Mariners, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins or Detroit Tigers — could be Houston’s wild-card opponent, a logjam that may not be settled until Sunday.
“We have different models that we can look at, rosters and base our roster based on different teams. We’ll have different models and different ideas,” Espada said. “The mental preparation is still the same. No matter the opponent, you’re going to see effort, see us take the field with passion and bring another title to Houston. That part will be there. Now it’s up to us on how we shape our roster based on who we face.”
GO DEEPER
Joe Espada’s even hand guides Astros to improbable AL West title
(Photo of Justin Verlander: Tim Warner / Getty Images)
