The early season upsets, injuries, and confusion may have you second-guessing everything from your third-round draft pick to your knockout pool selections. Not sure who had Justin Fields and Sam Darnold at 3-0 when neither was at the top of their team’s depth chart two months ago. The Saints with the most points in the NFC? Sure! The 49ers with the same amount of wins as the Panthers and Patriots? You know it! As we sift through what’s a good week (or two) and what’s more sustainable, here are some guys who are gaining traction and others who have legit reasons for concern.
Stock Up
Diontae Johnson, WR, CAR
I agree with those who won’t call Bryce Young a bust after just 18 games, especially when the organization didn’t do him any favors related to stability or talent. That being said, Young was rough to watch in the first two weeks of the season, completing just 55% of his passes, averaging only 122 yards/game with a 0:3 TD/INT ratio. It made all of the Panthers weapons unstartable, and many managers out there were not only benching, but cutting Diontae Johnson.
What a difference a veteran quarterback can make. Andy Dalton stepped in Week 3 against the Raiders and Johnson was the biggest beneficiary in the pass game. In training camp, new head coach Dave Caneles said defenses would have to start by knowing where Johnson was, and Dalton knew where his first option was all day. Johnson had 14 targets, which was the most he’s had in a game since 2021, and a 35-yard gain in the first half was more yards than he had in the first two weeks combined with Young. Combine a 70% completion rate and 300-yard day with a team still expected to mostly have a negative game script, and the WR1 returns to fantasy relevance. I don’t think the Panthers will suddenly have a big win streak, but garbage time and game management is enough to add to Johnson’s skill set for his stock to be on the rise.
In his first game with Andy Dalton at QB, Diontae Johnson had the most receiving yards in a single-game in his career pic.twitter.com/C4ruGCm1ns
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) September 22, 2024
Braelon Allen, RB, NYJ
If you selected Breece Hall this draft season, it probably cost you a Top 5 pick. He’s been good and is the current RB5, averaging 21 fantasy points per game. The issue is that 20-year-old rookie Braelon Allen has been even better in the 28% of snaps in which he’s been on the field. Allen is rushing for 5.1 yards per carry to Hall’s 3.7, he’s avoiding 42% of tackles compared to 17% for Hall, and they both have three runs of 10+ yards despite Hall having 27 more carries. The Jets expect to make the playoffs and contend for a division title, so it makes sense for them to keep their backs fresh. I think that means Allen’s snap count will grow and Hall will be less of a three-down workhorse than originally perceived when he was the second or third RB off the draft board. Allen, who is on rosters in 36% of Yahoo leagues, is averaging nearly 11 fantasy points per game and has stand alone value as a flex play moving forward, and there’s a path for his opportunity and production to grow even more as the season gets deeper into fall and winter.
Braelon Allen is currently PFF’s No. 1 graded RB in the entire NFL by rushing grade.
The #Jets rookie is averaging 5.1 YPC on 19 attempts for 96 yards.
4.11 yards after contact per attempt is top-5 among qualifiers.
He’s the real deal. Youngest player in the NFL btw.
— The Jet Press (@TheJetPress) September 20, 2024
Bucky Irving, RB, TB
In a situation similar to the one in New York, we entered this fantasy season thinking Rachaad White had bell-cow potential. Only Derrick Henry had more carries than White in 2023, and when you add his 64 receptions out of the backfield, only Christian McCaffrey touched the ball more last season. Enter Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay’s fourth-round draft pick out of Oregon this past April. Quite frankly, Irving has been the better, more explosive back by far. Over the past two weeks, both Irving and White have carried the ball 16 times, and Irving has gained 92 yards on those carries compared to only 35 yards for White. Irving has run for more first downs and has more fantasy points in that same timespan. Much of White’s value in 2023 came from his workload, and Bucky Irving is a safe bet to continue to eat into that volume. Irving is on rosters in 35% of Yahoo leagues, and with performances like the past few weeks, that number will continue to grow. I actually believe there’s a case for Irving to be the Bucs’ lead back by the end of October — when you’re making a playoff push — so grab him now if you can.
Bucky Irving is Tampa Bay’s RB1 & it’s never been as evident as it was today versus Denver
Bucky…
✅ got 56% of the rush attempts
✅ looked more explosive
✅ had more yards after contact
✅ was the more effective pass blocker
✅ is the better overall RBpic.twitter.com/2XcoMLVsKm— FANTASY UMPIRE (@FantasyUmpire) September 23, 2024
Stock Down
Travis Kelce, TE, KC
You can make all the Taylor Swift jokes you want (and some of the outfits I saw Kelce in this summer probably warrant them), but few thought Kelce would have this slow of a start in 2024. People thought Kelce lost a step in 2023, but he still finished as TE3, while missing two games, and was the only tight end with 90+ catches and 975+ yards. It’s been a different story through three weeks this year. Kelce has eight catches for 69 yards and 15 total fantasy points through three games. In 2023, he had six individual games with 69+ yards and, with his 35th birthday coming in a couple of weeks, you generally don’t “shake it off” (sorry, I had to) as a birthday present.
Rashee Rice leads the NFL with 24 grabs, is second with 288 receiving yards and is clearly the new main target for Patrick Mahomes in the Chiefs passing attack. Even with Isiah Pacheco sidelined and uncertainty in the backfield, Kelce only managed 30 yards last week in a game where Mahomes completed 26 passes. Kelce is still a no-doubt Hall of Famer and obviously has the potential to turn it around as the season goes on, but Father Time is undefeated and it may not be the most strategic decision to just assume it’s going to right itself. Kelce is TE20 so far this year and it makes sense to add someone like Hunter Henry as you determine when (or if) Kelce and the Chiefs can figure it out. How’s that for a sentence nobody had on their bingo card going into the season?
the face of everyone who drafted Travis Kelce in fantasy pic.twitter.com/Ebl9FwMZhN
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) September 23, 2024
Will Levis, QB, TEN
There was a lot of buzz surrounding Will Levis this draft season. It was a popular opinion that the Titans were doing everything possible to have him succeed, bringing in Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and Tony Pollard, and evolving to a more pass-friendly offense under Brian Callahan. It has not looked good after three weeks for Levis and the Titans. Levis is averaging less than 200 yards/game and has more interceptions than touchdowns. Levis has eight turnovers, including some meme-worthy ones where defenses scored and provided the margin of defeat. Callahan was even caught on camera “questioning” his decision-making, to put it nicely, and the fact that he had to come out and say Levis was still the starter after the loss to Green Bay is not the kind of commentary folks were hoping for. He may still be the starter for the Titans, but Levis shouldn’t be the QB2 on your fantasy team. Levis hasn’t reached double-digit fantasy points in any game this season, and guys like Sam Darnold, Derek Carr, Justin Fields, and even Daniel Jones have been more productive and are better options moving forward.
The generational run for Will Levis continues pic.twitter.com/iOeRjh9J1o
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) September 22, 2024
Zamir White, RB, LV
White was another hot name during fantasy football drafts, especially if you were looking for value going with a “hero RB” or “zero RB” approach. White has disappointed, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry with only one rush of 10+ yards. He has yet to find the end zone and lost a fumble against the Chargers in the opener. White is RB46 after three weeks, but the more concerning development is that Alexander Mattison is the RB24 and seems to have seized the goal line and passing down work for Las Vegas. Mattison has one more snap than Zamir White and 64 more yards in the passing game. White managing only 0.6 yards before contact in the run game doesn’t give head coach Antonio Pierce a reason to be patient. With the Raiders at 1-2 coming off a loss to Carolina, all options are on the table, including less opportunity for White. With the Browns, Broncos, and Steelers defenses up next, White’s stock may drop even further and I’d consider options like Rico Dowdle and Jaleel McLaughlin over White until we see more.
Raiders carries inside the 5-yard line in 2024:
Alexander Mattison: 2
Zamir White: 0pic.twitter.com/7RX4zRqAlh— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) September 22, 2024
(Top photo of Braelon Allen: Justin Ford/Getty Images)
