Consider this: you’re single, been out of the dating game for, oh, like eight months, so you figure it’s time to get back out there and meet someone new. After chatting online for a month, you set up a couple first dates. Person A shows up to the first date and proceeds to exceed your wildest expectations. It’s the most fun you’ve ever had, with conversation flowing easily, an abundance of common interests and they have the same goofy sense of humor that you do. You eagerly set up date No. 2. Without warning, Person A completely blows you off. Maybe they show up late, aren’t in the mood for conversation or fun, and leave early with zero of the chemistry you had on the first date.
Since you’re not one to put all of your dating eggs in one basket, you also set up a first date with Person B. Person B is honestly kind of bland, doesn’t seem to get your jokes and has a hard time letting loose and having fun. It’s a disappointing date, to be sure. Still, the profile was a really good match and the initial chatting you’d done was encouraging enough that you set up a second date. This time, Person B is awesome! You see the version you thought you’d glimpsed online, having a much better time laughing and getting along great.
Who gets to go on date No. 3 with you?
Person A and Person B are both — because this is a football article — 1-1 as far as good dates go. But you’re going to pursue Person B first. Don’t even deny it. Maybe, if it doesn’t work out with Person B and great date No. 2 was the fluke, you’ll circle back around to Person A hoping to recapture that first date magic. The amount of cognitive bias involved in this decision tree is astounding and you can probably see it.
Recency bias — the notion that whatever happened most recently is more important.
Confirmation bias — the idea that information that confirms or supports our initial assessment or hypothesis is more important than information that goes against our preexisting beliefs.
Primacy bias — the first item in a series is more important than subsequent events.
Recency and confirmation will argue strongly for Person B, otherwise known as Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown et. al., for those a little slow on the uptake. But primacy bias won’t let you forget about Person A, who is perhaps Isaiah Likely, Anthony Richardson, or Allen Lazard. As soon as things take a downward turn with B, we’ll probably end up chasing that epic first week performance of Person A. What I want to know is why did I ignore those DMs from Rashid Shaheed and J.K. Dobbins?!?
Kidding aside, the NFL is unpredictable, always testing what we think we know and pushing the limits of our patience. It can bring out the worst in our decision-making skills and drive our emotions to the limits of ecstasy and depths of despair in the span of a few hours. A lot of Week 3 decisions will be shaped more by an injury-induced lack of options than the normal formula of talent, opportunity and matchup. I’ve got a few players I think you can roll with despite some reasons for hesitation, and some others who could be fun to tinker with if you’re looking to shake up your starting roster.
Don’t Overthink
Xavier Worthy, WR, KC
Another “Person A,” Worthy was a letdown in Week 2 — only two catches for 17 yards — as the Chiefs barely beat the Bengals 26-25. He was targeted on 17 percent of his routes, up from 11 percent in Week 1, and accounted for slightly more of his team’s air yards as well. One factor in Worthy’s line was that Patrick Mahomes didn’t throw a single ball into the end zone on Sunday, and another was that Worthy’s few targets were all underneath, shallow throws. The Chiefs head to Atlanta this weekend for a Sunday Night game with a high point total (46.5 O/U), and KC is 3.5-point favorite. Look for a bounce-back game from Worthy.
Rachaad White, RB, TB
You drafted White for the workhorse role and he’s getting the bulk of the work. The fact that he looks awful is concerning, but he has faced the Lions, who are allowing the least fantasy points to RBs so far — a spot they occupied last season as well — and the Commanders, who have been much more generous through the air. Denver is an average run defense, but the Bucs are home and should have no trouble getting the lead early given the struggles of Bo Nix and Co. It’s in their best interest to get White’s confidence up and limit injury risk to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, setting up a nice, run-heavy game plan. Bucky Irving is also in consideration if you’re looking for a cheap DFS play or desperate in a deep league.
D’Andre Swift, RB, CHI
Another “dead zone” RB who is frustrating his managers through two games. The fact is that Bears offense is in shambles with Caleb Williams leading it. Williams has yet to account for a touchdown of any kind, is averaging just four yards per throw and the Bears are tied with Denver for the second fewest first downs per game (Carolina is worst, and it’s scary how close Williams and Bryce Young’s stat lines are if you’re a Bears fan). One thing the Bears can, and should, do is feed Swift the ball. Why are they ranked 24th in rushing attempts? It’s not only because they lack for possessions, they are also ranked 24th in rushing play percentage. The Titans and Texans do have above average run defenses and, of course, the Bears are playing from behind, but they need to change the game plan, and it should start against the more lenient Colts run defense this weekend. ‘Shoulds’ from fantasy writers don’t always translate to on-field changes in productivity, but I’m giving the Bears and Swift one more week to get it together before I bench him.
Tinker With
Jauan Jennings, WR, SF
It’s obvious if you’re a Deebo Samuel manager, but even if you’ve just been let down repeatedly by Chris Olave, Terry McLaurin or any Bears receiver, it might feel good to get some new blood at the position. Seeing what the Cardinals just did to the Rams and knowing that SF is one of the biggest favorites of the week has me interested in getting a piece of this offense. Truthfully, the passing game hasn’t been awesome, with Brock Purdy throwing only one touchdown pass so far this season (to George Kittle). Brandon Aiyuk has struggled to make an impact despite the new contract, so much so that Jennings is actually ahead of him in targets, catches, yards and fantasy points.
Mike Gesicki, TE, CIN
A night with the Washington Commanders is every fantasy manager’s dream date so far this season. I expect a highlight reel from Ja’Marr Chase (finally), but if you’re struggling with Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce at TE and have the roster strength elsewhere to tinker with the finicky position, I do like Gesicki this week. Yes, I’m well aware that he has done nothing but disappoint fantasy managers in the past, but unlike previous seasons, he’s actually getting the utilization this year (21 percent of targets, 23 percent of air yards) and Joe Burrow is throwing high quality passes his way. Gesicki is currently fantasy’s TE6 with 10 catches and 109 yards.
Alexander Mattison, RB, LV
Mattison has scored in both games this season, first in a receiving role, second in a goal line attempt. This versatility in usage makes Mattison an interesting fill-in against the fourth-most fantasy-friendly run defense in the league. His usage has been slightly lower than Zamir White’s, but Mattison has been more productive with his opportunities. This could be a get-right game for White as well, but Mattison has value in PPR formats.
(Top photo of Rachaad White: Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
