U.S. Open final analysis: Jannik Sinner beats Taylor Fritz to win second Grand Slam title

NEW YORK — Jannik Sinner beat Taylor Fritz in the U.S. Open final at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 on Sunday.

The No. 1 seed prevailed over the No. 12 seed in a comfortable win, bar a few games of excitement in the third set. It was ultimately decided by Fritz struggling to win points behind his serve, Sinner’s tactical adjustment of his return position, and Fritz’s still-developing variety in his game not quite being enough.

It is Sinner’s second Grand Slam title of his career and his second of 2024. He joins Aryna Sabalenka in holding both the Australian and U.S. Open titles for the year, and cements his position as men’s world No. 1.

The Athletic’s writers, Charlie Eccleshare and Matt Futterman, analyze the final and what it means for tennis.

Why did Taylor Fritz’s serving performance dip?

In the very first game of the match, Fritz saved a break point with a forehand winner, after some excellent Sinner defence. It was a short-term win for the American, but having to win points like that behind a serve that regularly clears 120mph is not a path to winning a match. To stand any chance, Fritz would have to serve well enough to nullify Sinner’s defensive prowess.

Fritz couldn’t manage this in the first set, during which time he was broken in three of his five service games, including the first. In that game, he sent down a 127mph serve on break point, which Sinner sliced up in the air. Fritz missed the put-away shot and went behind immediately.

His low first-serve percentage (38 per cent) was a factor in losing the first set 6-3, but even more important was the proportion of points won behind those serves. Fritz won just 55 per cent, way down on the 81 per cent he had averaged for the rest of the tournament.

Fritz was missing the lines with his first serve, and when he got them in, Sinner was able to get the ball back deep and put the American on the back foot. Fritz struggled to bring his forehand into play early in points as a result, and the struggles he had on his serve meant that, despite a pretty good returning day, he was too often behind the eight ball.

Matt Futterman Charlie Eccleshare James Hansen

How did Sinner sweep Fritz’s feet from under him?

Just when it looked like Fritz had gotten his feet under him, straightening out his first-set serving problems and staying even with Sinner through the second, the wheels came off.

The first player to break the other’s serve was likely to win the match, and Fritz had gone from landing just 38 per cent of his first serves in the first set, to nearly 90 per cent in the second set, through his first four service games.

Jannik Sinner dragged Fritz into long rally exchanges that he couldn’t sustain. (Kena Betancur / AFP via Getty Images)

Then came the fifth and most crucial service game at 4-5, in which Fritz made only three out of five first serves, and the points stretched longer — the kind of situation in which Fritz’s less reliable ground game can break down.

Three unforced errors gave Sinner two set points. He only needed one, moving into the court and sending a forehand deep that Fritz couldn’t get back.

All points and games are supposed to be equal in tennis. They’re not. Lose your serve in the first game of a set and you have several more chances to draw even. Lose it when you’re a set down and 4-5 behind, and you’ve lost at least 40 per cent of a match.

Beating Sinner from ahead or while staying even is hard enough. Climbing out of a two-set hole to do it is nearly impossible.

Matt Futterman

How did the crowd feed off scraps — and then burst into life?

As well as the serve, the main weapon Fritz had on Saturday was the crowd.

Broadly speaking, there are two main ways to get the fans going. One is having a Frances Tiafoe-like ability to work a crowd; the other is keeping the scoreboard close enough that they get properly engaged.

Fritz is never going to be a guy who connects with supporters like Tiafoe, it’s just not in his nature — so he needed to create some tension by putting Sinner under pressure, much like the similarly understated Jessica Pegula did with Aryna Sabalenka in Saturday’s women’s final.

When Taylor Fritz sparked into life, the crowd did too. (Kena Betancur / AFP via Getty Images)

Fritz really struggled to do this for the most part, for which his opponent also deserves a lot of credit. Sinner has such a good poker face that he gives a crowd very little to work with.

Finally in the third set, Fritz and the crowd started working together in harmony. First, after Fritz held for 3-3 having saved break points, they properly erupted for the first time. Buoyed by this, Fritz gave them a couple of big celebrations in the next game, which sent the crowd wild. They started getting on Sinner’s case, cheering when he missed a serve and willing a double fault into existence to give Fritz the break and what looked like the set.

Then Sinner came back again and, although the crowd remained engaged, they couldn’t help their guy over the line.

Charlie Eccleshare

As Sinner figures out his losses, who will figure out how to beat him?

There simply aren’t many ways to beat Jannik Sinner these days, other than hoping that he is having something off an off-day, especially on his serve. Sinner is 54-5 in 2024, with a 34-2 record on hard courts, losing to Andrey Rublev in Canada and Carlos Alcaraz in Indian Wells.

Alcaraz appeared to be onto something at Indian Wells in March. Down 1-6, he made a mid-match adjustment and started varying the height of his groundstrokes, jumping the ball up and down to break Sinner’s rhythm. The Italian prefers to plant his feet just behind a baseline, firing back forehands and backhands on a wire all afternoon.

Since then, a whole line of players have tried the tactic, and Sinner now sees it from a mile (or 80 feet) away — especially against someone like Fritz, who can’t get the trajectory and revolutions to make things awkward. Sinner straightens up and hops back as soon as he spots some elevation, and turns a high ball into a belt-high forehand.

He has also started making mid-match tactical adjustments of his own. The best example Sunday afternoon was drifting back near the back wall, changing his return position deep into the second set after Fritz had pinned him back for the majority of it.

Jannik Sinner spent most of his time returning in the green behind the court. (Frank Franklin II / Associated Press)

Suddenly, Sinner became Daniil Medvedev. He knew that he could hit long, loopy returns against Fritz — a player who rarely serves and volleys, and is still incorporating variety and advanced net play into his game. By extending the length of rallies, he played Fritz’s service games on terms favorable to him.

At 4-5 30-30, Fritz was serving to win the third set and turn Arthur Ashe Stadium into a cauldron. He launched into one of his best serves of the day, a 133mph serve down the T. Sinner’s return position gave him time to send a return onto a pixel square in Fritz’s backhand corner. Somehow, the Italian had gained the upper hand in a point he had no business winning. He did. that one and the next one. And It was all even at 5-5

It was a good, low-risk place to start changing things up — or in Sinner’s case on Sunday, to finish them.

GO DEEPER

Why tennis needs the rise of Alcaraz and Sinner – and the resolve of Djokovic

Matt Futterman

What did Jannik Sinner say after the final?

We’ll bring your their on-court quotes and press conference reflections as they come in.

What did Taylor Fritz say after the final?

We’ll bring your their on-court quotes and press conference reflections as they come in.

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(Top photo: Angela Weiss / AFP via Getty Images)