After one week, Browns beat writer Zac Jackson has an early lead on Chicago columnist Jon Greenberg in their pigskin prognosticating. But this week, the NFL season is here, so throw the records out the window.
GREENBERG (2-3): Well, another losing week. I’m in midseason form. I started off with two wins and then lost my last three, but I can take a measure of solace in that only one of my losing picks was really awful and that was Florida +2.5 against Miami. A lot of people had the Gators. Never again, though. You, however, had a much better week.
JACKSON (3-0): Sorry for the delay. I’ve been going door-to-door in my neighborhood telling people I went 3-0 last week. I don’t even know who’s playing this week. I’m living in the past, full Al Bundy style.
GREENBERG: It was that other Chicago football icon Mike Ditka who said, “Those who live in the past are cowards and losers.” Of course, he spent the next few decades living (quite well) off 1985, but I digress.
I did a ton of research this week, combing through the lines, talking to my dedicated team of analysts, calling my brother in Las Vegas and the Spot Bar in Steubenville, Ohio, but I decided to throw it all out the window.
This is gambling after all.
I’m committing to picking five games a week — none of this “Ooh, I went 3-0” eyewash — and this week, I decided to do a gimmicky theme. There are five NFL games with 3-point spreads. Three points, of course, is what home-field advantage is worth, theoretically, though one of the teams is a 3-point road favorite.
So these are basically coin flip games (or pushes). I’m not taking 2 1/2-point games or 3 1/2-point games, just taking good ol’ fashioned threes with no conscience. We’ll call this my D.J. Cooper Special.
Chiefs -3 over Ravens: As you’ll see below, I’m high on the Ravens this year, but I think Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan and Kansas City take care of business at home.
Steelers +3 at Falcons: As a Steelers fan, I don’t feel great about this season. I certainly don’t feel good about Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. But ol’ Russ will cook enough to give the Steelers defense a chance to win this game against Kirk Cousins. The Steelers are 15-2-1 all-time against Atlanta. Ride the streak!
Texans -3 at Indianapolis: Everyone is taking the Texans. There’s no reason to take the Colts. Is this a trap game? Are home-dome ‘dogs still a thing?
Chargers -3 over Raiders: I’m all aboard the Jim Harbaugh bandwagon. Some guys just have “it.” And like Zach Collaros in the CFL, Caleb Williams soon enough at Soldier Field and you at the Swenson’s drive-thru, Harbaugh has that magic pixie dust to win games.
Buccaneers -3 over Commanders: I’m enthusiastic about Jayden Daniels’ rookie season, but the Bucs will do enough to win their opener at home. Speaking of highly touted rookie QBs, does Baker Mayfield still have all those commercials?
JACKSON: Week 2 in college is super difficult for many reasons; my sprained wrist from patting myself on the back just makes it tougher.
The first thing I noticed were the absurdly low totals for Duke-Northwestern (36.5) and Iowa State-Iowa (35.5). What year is this? Though I actually lean towards the under in Iowa City, I think I’ll pass.
I’m going to hold my nose and start with Akron +23.5 at Rutgers. The Zips usually stink; they went 4-8 in 2018 and they’ve won SEVEN total games since. Yes, seven. But they held up better than the final score indicates in a hopeless spot at Ohio State last week, and even if the roster isn’t great, Joe Moorhead can coach some offense. With the game total under 40 because Rutgers also probably stinks, sign me up for more than three touchdowns. It’s basically a bet that Akron can get to 9 or 10 points. I love lots of bars, but I really love a low bar.
How about a game that should be fun and that people may actually watch Saturday night? I’m glad you asked. Give me Colorado +7.5 at Nebraska. It could be a fun shootout, and though this Colorado team is clearly flawed. I’ll take Shedeur Sanders to keep up in a shootout.
In the NFL, I’m taking the Packers +2 in Brazil on Friday night. Just really a gut feel that the Eagles have some issues to still iron out AND that Jordan Love is as good as last year made it seem.
Plus, I’ll take one NFL player prop: Jerry Jeudy over 38.5 receiving yards in Browns-Cowboys Sunday. There won’t be much offense in this game, but I expect the Browns to force the ball to Jeudy and ask him to create yards after the catch. He actually might go over this total on one scripted play early. Jeudy is fast, he’s seemingly been healthy since mid-August and I think this covers two avenues here: that the Browns utilize him as part of things early, and that they get behind and he gets his yards in scramble mode late.
GREENBERG: I like the Packers too. There’s very little adjustment flying from Green Bay to Rio de Janeiro, so that will help their acclimation.
Let’s go to NFL futures. Hannah Vanbiber asked us for our Super Bowl picks last week and you went with the chalk, the Chiefs (+500) and I went with the third-biggest favorite, the Ravens (+1000). So we’ll make those our future picks for this column as well. Even though I have his brother winning the Super Bowl, I’ll take the favorite for Coach of the Year, Jim Harbaugh at +900.
For player props, let’s go with Jordan Love with most passing touchdowns at +1500.
JACKSON: I just think you go full Ric Flair WOOOOOOOO. To be the man, you have to beat the man. Patrick Mahomes remains the man.
I like the Bengals at +165 to win the AFC North. That would be an official play for me. Myles Garrett +800 to repeat as NFL Defensive Player of the Year sounds like a great price to me, and I also like Jacksonville at +130 to make the playoffs.
But that’s all down the road. I’m more focused on watching Akron and Rutgers go one punt at a time.
GREENBERG: The Bengals are the official survivor team of Week 1, but I’m going with the Chargers in Harbaugh’s debut against the Raiders.
JACKSON: I’ll take Tampa Bay for my NFL survivor pick. I plan on purchasing a stake in Spot Bar with my survivor winnings a few months from now.
Zac Jackson’s picks
Jon Greenberg’s picks
(Photo of Jordan Love: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
