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After Trent Williams reached terms with the 49ers and with Ja’Marr Chase at least attending practices, Haason Reddick is the last and only holdout. Say it with me: J-E-T-S.
Today’s newsletter looks at:
- 👥 Mahomes/Jackson: the faces of the NFL
- 👟 New kickoff’s actual debut
- ✍ Hope-O-Meter results
- ⚔ Quarterback battles
Mahomes and Jackson: We’re here for these two
Bradshaw and Staubach. Aikman and Young. Manning and Brady. Despite never playing on the field at the same time, these sets of quarterbacks are forever linked as both rivals and the faces of the NFL during their era. You didn’t miss a matchup between them.
The current iteration? Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, who’ll duel tomorrow night to begin the NFL’s 105th season. Their legacies will inevitably be intertwined for many reasons:
- The greatness: In a league run by quarterbacks, Mahomes and Jackson are the only two drafted in the past 10 years to win an NFL MVP award, and each has won twice. While Josh Allen or Joe Burrow might finish as Mahomes’ greatest rival, Jackson has the edge in accolades. (But if we’re being honest, for a whole lot of people, Travis Kelce is the face of the NFL.)
- The context: During Tom Brady’s age-27 and -28 seasons, his average completion percentage was 61.9. Despite below-average receiver groups in 2023, Mahomes and Jackson (who were 28 and 27, respectively) had the same career-best 67.2 completion percentage.
For now, Jackson will need to settle for No. 4 on The Athletic’s Week 1 QB rankings and No. 3 on The Athletic’s Power Rankings. Kansas City leads both lists.
Here’s Dianna, with more on tomorrow night’s game.
What Dianna’s Hearing: New kickoff rules debut tomorrow
Tomorrow, it’s both “welcome back, football” and “hello, new kickoff rule.”
As we saw in the preseason, the NFL is moving to a hybrid kickoff this season in an attempt to, among other things, encourage more returns. Many head coaches and execs publicly supported the new rule over the summer, but privately, some aren’t so enthused about the change.
“(It’s) entertaining, yes, and the special teams gurus (on teams like) the Saints and Cowboys will scheme the s— out of this and return everything,” said one NFC head coach. “But a lot of teams are still going to kick touchbacks. I think you can expect a slight decrease in touchbacks, but slight. The first big return against a team, they will get scared and kick touchbacks.”
According to another NFC team’s data, the average start position after a return this preseason was the 28.6-yard line, less than a yard-and-a-half difference from kicking it through the end zone. An AFC general manager summed it up this way: “Teams will evaluate drive start (statistics) and see whether it’s worth potentially giving up a significant return or playing it safe. You’ll have some teams that just say screw it and will kick the ball deep.”
It’s brand new for officials too, who are still working out the mechanics of the play. We’ll get our first look at how teams and officials manage it tomorrow night in Arrowhead.
Back to you, Jacob.
Hope-O-Meter Results: Detroit is (finally) optimistic
Dan Campbell’s press conferences are legendary. Topics range from kneecap biting to his Starbucks order. He always bring energy, and it appears his infectious enthusiasm has translated to listeners.
In The Athletic’s first-ever NFL Hope-O-Meter survey of fan optimism, Lions fans, who not so long ago endured an 0-16 season, led the league with a 98.8 percent optimism score, narrowly edging the defending champion — and Super Bowl favorite — Chiefs 98.7 score. Other results:
Most surprising: Bears fans. Chicago at No. 3, ahead of teams like the 49ers and Packers? With a 97.6 optimism score, it turns out all Bears fans needed was a potential franchise quarterback, not regular-season evidence. Many also fairly cite the brilliant moves made by their front office.
Most pessimistic: Saints fans. Despite a 9-8 record in 2023, just 16 percent are optimistic for 2024. A fan named Alex put it well: “Same aging stars, same bloated cap, same mediocre coach who should have stayed a stellar defensive coordinator.” It’s hard to disagree.
Fantasy Football: Last-second draft notes
With under 36 hours remaining to get your last fantasy draft done, I wanted to quickly spotlight two notes from recent articles:
- More receiving yards: Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel? In that poll, most of our writers see Samuel finishing with more receiving yards, citing his contract year, light playing weight and fantastic training camp.
- Jaguars WR2: Brian Thomas Jr. “With an [average draft position] outside the top 100, the former LSU Tiger is in a position to return immense value,” wrote Jay Felicio in his final preseason takeaways, as Thomas — and his 4.33 speed – replace Calvin Ridley as the deep to intermediate threat the Jaguars badly need.
More Takes, Your Takes: QB Battles
Scoop City readers have spoken: Russell Wilson will not last the season as Pittsburgh’s starter. Meanwhile, at least four other quarterback controversies could appear this season — in New Orleans, New York, New England and Las Vegas — and I’m curious where you stand on them.
Which QB ends up starting the most games for each of those teams? Click here to predict.
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(Photo: Rob Carr / Getty Images)
