What will be the difference-making variables for postseason contenders in the final weeks of the regular season and into October?
As the pennant races get down to the nitty gritty, let’s look at the top contending teams’ biggest concerns and possible X-factors to watch down the stretch.
I’ll start with the National League today and follow up with the American League later this week.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
84-55 (5 1/2-game lead over San Diego in NL West)
Biggest concern: Starting pitching
The Dodgers’ biggest concern is the health of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow at the top of their rotation. Yamamoto had a tremendous start to the season, going 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA over 14 outings before suffering a strained rotator cuff in mid-June. After being on the injured list for more than two months, he’s made two rehab starts at Triple A over the past week, allowing three runs in four innings with five strikeouts and two walks. He could make another rehab start or two before returning to the major-league rotation if he avoids setbacks. How he pitches down the stretch could be key to the Dodgers securing one of the NL’s top two seeds along with a first-round bye and setting up their postseason rotation. Glasnow went 9-6 with a 3.49 ERA over 22 starts before landing on the IL with right elbow tendinitis on Aug. 13 . He recently had a setback in his recovery but the Dodgers remain hopeful he can return before the end of the regular season.
Right now, the Dodgers’ rotation is led by Jack Flaherty and Gavin Stone, but those two solid starters are followed by two big question marks: Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. (Remember, their rotation has already lost Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan to season-ending injuries and Clayton Kershaw went on the IL last week with a toe injury. Yamamoto and Glasnow coming back healthy will be key to the Dodgers’ success in September and October.
X-factor: Will Smith returning to form
Will Smith had a great April, slashing .362/.403/.543, but he’s hit under .215 every month since, including a dismal .194 in August. If Smith could heat up down the stretch, he could be a huge X-factor for the Dodgers as they look to put away the Diamondbacks and Padres in the division and lock up the No. 1 seed.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
82-56 (Seven-game lead over Atlanta in NL East)
Biggest concern: Consistent offensive performance
The Phillies’ rotation leads the NL in ERA (3.58) and their bullpen is arguably as deep and strong as any NL contender. However, their inconsistent offense has been worrisome at times of late. Over the last 15 days, even as the Phillies have righted the ship, they rank 15th in MLB in runs scored, a noticeable drop from the top-nine level they’ve been all season long. Alec Bohm (who has missed four straight games with a hand injury) is hitting .232/.283/.304 over his last 15 games. Trea Turner has a .686 OPS over his last 15 games (and a .648 mark over his last 30), compared to an .809 OPS on the season. Bohm, Bryce Harper and Austin Hays haven’t contributed a long ball over that stretch. Harper, who told MLB.com he’s playing through pain in his right elbow and wrist, hasn’t homered since Aug. 9 and has just a .722 OPS since the All-Star break. Kyle Schwarber was hitting below .150 over his last 15 games, but he broke out in a big way Tuesday in Toronto with three homers and a double on a five-hit night.
KYLE SCHWARBER, THIRD HOME RUN OF THE GAME FOR THE LEAD 😮 pic.twitter.com/DWw6ilavdf
— MLB (@MLB) September 4, 2024
X-factor: Austin Hays
Hays has a chance to be the X-factor the Phillies need. They acquired him from the Baltimore Orioles at the trade deadline with hopes he would help them on both sides of the ball, especially versus left-handed pitchers, whom he’s hit .350 against this season. But Hays hasn’t homered since July and he’s slashed just .254/.275/.373 in 69 plate appearances since joining the Phillies. He could really help lengthen their lineup if he starts contributing more offensively.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
81-58 (10-game lead over Chicago in NL Central)
Biggest concern: Overall offense from their outfielders and designated hitters
The Brewers’ biggest concern has been the lack of offense, specifically power, from their designated hitters and outfielders outside of Jackson Chourio. They’ve really missed Christian Yelich, who was having his best season in years before undergoing season-ending back surgery last month. Apart from Chourio and Yelich, the Milwaukee outfielders lack power; none of them, including Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins or Garrett Mitchell, have more than six homers this season — and although they flash the leather on defense and make up for some of the power shortage with blazing speed and stolen bases, it’s still a postseason concern. The DH spot is also a concern as Gary Sánchez is batting .230 with nine homers and a 101 OPS+. (Rhys Hoskins, who has mostly been at first base, does have six of his 23 homers as the DH.) The Brewers are going to win the division running away, but their lack of power will be a concern when they have to match up with teams such as the Dodgers and Phillies in the postseason.
X-factor: Jackson Chourio
It seems like most people only want to talk about Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill in the NL Rookie of the Year race, but Jackson Chourio also deserves attention. After hitting .206 in March/April and .215 in May, he hasn’t stopped raking — he hit .315 in June, .317 in July and .321 in August. He’s up to 19 homers and 20 stolen bases on the season and has worked his way into the conversation for the award. He’s been worth 3.5 WAR according to FanGraphs, third on the Brewers behind Willy Adames and William Contreras. Chourio will be a huge X-factor for the Brewers in the playoffs — with Contreras, Adames and the 20-year-old rookie sensation, Milwaukee has three aircraft carriers, making them a serious postseason threat.
Bob Uecker’s call of Jackson Chourio’s grand slam is awesome 🙌
(via @Brewers)pic.twitter.com/Zj7dRorznR
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 2, 2024
4. San Diego Padres
79-61 (5 1/2 games back of Los Angeles in NL West; in first wild-card spot)
Biggest concern: The return of Yu Darvish
The Padres’ offense has been humming over the past month, ranking fifth in the NL in runs scored and sixth in OPS. The starting rotation has been middle of the pack over that stretch, ranking 17th in the majors in ERA. However, the top of the rotation is strong with Dylan Cease, Michael King and Joe Musgrove, who has been stellar since coming off the IL on Aug. 12. However, the key to the Padres making a push for the division or keeping the top wild-card spot could come down to Yu Darvish, who is expected to start Wednesday after recently returning from the restricted list, which he went on in early July as he dealt with a private family matter. Darvish had a 3.20 ERA over 11 starts before going on the list. How will he fare Wednesday and beyond? If he can return to form, it would provide a big boost to the Padres and give them a rotation that’s capable of running the table in October.
X-factor: The return of Fernando Tatis Jr.
The return of superstar right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is the biggest X-factor for the Padres because of what he provides at the plate and in the field. Tatis slashed .279/.354/.468 with 14 doubles, 14 home runs and 50 runs scored before going on the IL in late June with a femoral stress reaction. He’s the reigning Platinum Glove Award winner in the NL. He returned on Monday to a roaring ovation from the San Diego fans. Tatis could be a game-changer for an already lethal lineup that ranks fifth in the NL in runs scored on the season.
The Petco Park crowd welcomes Fernando Tatis Jr. back after being activated off the injured list today 🫶 pic.twitter.com/B1NSgC3XLM
— MLB (@MLB) September 2, 2024
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
78-61 (Six games back of Los Angeles in NL West; in second wild-card spot)
Biggest concern: The starting pitching
The Diamondbacks’ rotation has slumped over the past month: Zac Gallen has a 4.94 ERA over his last five starts, Merrill Kelly has a 6.75 ERA over his last four starts; Brandon Pfaadt has a 6.75 ERA over his last four starts; Eduardo Rodriguez has a 5.33 ERA over his last five starts; meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery has been so bad they’ve relegated him to the bullpen. Arizona’s most effective starter over the past month has been Ryne Nelson, who has allowed two runs or fewer in six innings or more in each of his last five outings. This group is too talented not to turn it around in the final month of the season, but the starting pitching is a concern until they do.
X-factor: Getting back Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Gabriel Moreno
The Diamondbacks eagerly await the returns of three of their top position players who are expected to come off the IL this month. Second baseman Ketel Marte, their best all-around position player, has been out with a sprained ankle since Aug. 18. First baseman Christian Walker, their best power hitter, has been on the IL with an oblique injury since July 30. Catcher Gabriel Moreno went on the IL with a strained groin on Aug. 6. The Diamondbacks rank first in the majors in runs scored and OPS — on the season and over the past 30 days. Their offense is already impressive. But if these players can return to form as they are reinstated this month, they could catapult Arizona back into the division race or at the very least help them secure the NL’s top wild-card spot.
6. Atlanta Braves
75-63 (Seven games back of Philadelphia in NL East; in third wild-card spot)
Biggest concern: The offense outside of Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson
The Braves’ pitching staff has the best ERA (3.59) in the NL. The top of their rotation is dominant, led by Chris Sale, who is in a close race with Zack Wheeler for the Cy Young Award, followed by Reynaldo López, Max Fried, Spencer Schwellenbach and Charlie Morton. Their bullpen has the second-best ERA (3.30) in the league and Raisel Iglesias (1.26 ERA, 0.607 WHIP) has been a lockdown closer. But the offense has been a different story with Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley all on the injured list. Marcell Ozuna has carried this team offensively most of the season and will be in the MVP conversation after Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor. Matt Olson finally got hot in August following a three-month slump. However, the rest of the offense is a patchwork and has largely underperformed. (Atlanta ranks 10th in the NL in runs scored, behind all of the other contenders.) The Braves need significant offensive improvement in September if they’re going to hold off the Mets for the third wild-card spot.
X-factor: Michael Harris II
Last year, Harris hit .293 with 18 home runs and 20 stolen bases. This year, partly due to a left hamstring injury he suffered in mid-June, he has not contributed at the same level; he has only nine home runs in 357 plate appearances and eight stolen bases. However, it looks like he could be a real spark plug down the stretch for Atlanta. He made a phenomenal catch over the weekend against the Phillies and has had more solid at-bats of late.
ARE YOU KIDDING?!
Did Michael Harris II just make the catch of the year? pic.twitter.com/5mUkua0TaH
— MLB (@MLB) September 1, 2024
7. New York Mets
75-64 (7 1/2 games back of Philadelphia in NL East; a half a game back of third wild-card spot)
Biggest concern: Back of the starting rotation
The Mets’ starting pitching has been much better than expected as Luis Severino, David Peterson and Sean Manaea have kept them in most of their starts this season. However, the back of the rotation has been meh. José Quintana is 1-3 with a 5.63 ERA over his past six starts. Paul Blackburn, who is currently on a rehab assignment, has a 5.18 ERA over five starts since being acquired from the Oakland A’s at the trade deadline. It’s a real concern.
X-factor: J.D. Martinez
Although Martinez has had a solid year (16 homers, 65 RBIs), he hasn’t been able to match his production with the Dodgers last season, when he hit 33 home runs and drove in 103 runs. Perhaps he was saving his best for the last month as the Mets try to push their way into the playoffs. Martinez, who has a .294/.386/.588 (.974 OPS) slash line in 140 postseason plate appearances, has always been a big-game clutch hitter.
8. Chicago Cubs
71-68 (10 games back of Milwaukee in NL Central; 4 1/2 games back of final wild-card spot)
Biggest concern: Justin Steele’s health
The Cubs’ starting pitching has been solid during their recent surge. In August, Justin Steele, Javier Assad and Shota Imanaga combined to go 8-2 with a 3.21 ERA while four relievers combined to log seven saves in nine opportunities to get Chicago back in the race. However, Steele was scratched from his most recent start due to elbow soreness. The Cubs currently have less than a 2 percent chance to make the playoffs according to FanGraphs, but the uncertainty surrounding Steele further dampens their shot to pull off a minor miracle and reach the postseason.
X-factor: Isaac Paredes
Chicago acquired Isaac Paredes from the Tampa Bay Rays at the trade deadline and the deal has not worked out well so far; Paredes is batting .173 over his first 31 games with the Cubs. At the time of the trade, he had a .357 on-base percentage with 16 home runs and 55 RBIs over 101 games. If he can return to that level, he could be an X-factor for the Cubs’ offense, which ranks third in the NL in runs scored over the past 30 days.
(Top image: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: Brandon Sloter / Image Of Sport / Getty Images; J.D. Martinez: Adam Hunger / Getty Images)
