Week 1 of the college football season is wrapped up and maybe the only thing worse than my start this season is how Florida State is playing. Either way, it’s a long season and there is plenty of time to make up the ground. On the bright side, four out of six plays last week had closing line value (Minnesota didn’t because of injury to running back Darius Taylor and I added to not bet this as the injury news started to leak), which should lead to success long-term. Trust the process, of course.
Last week’s record: 1-6, -5.55 units
Season record: 2-6, -4.55 units, -52.0% ROI
This week’s card has seven plays to start, but, as always, I have a few plays being monitored that will get added to the card if things break our way later in the week. Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter (@amock419) for any updates. If you have any questions please reach out on social media or in the comments.
As always, please shop around for the best price. Every cent matters when it comes to sports betting and getting the best price possible will pay dividends in the long-run.
Best bets for college football Week 2
All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. I’m also sharing a “worst line to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet.
Kansas State -9.5 (-110) at Tulane
Both of these teams played inferior FCS opponents in Week 1 so we didn’t get a great look at what these two teams are, but Kansas State is superior in my model. My number for this game is almost two touchdowns so anything under double digits is worth a stab. I’m high on Kansas State this year as they’re one of the top two teams in the Big 12 and should keep Tulane at distance for 60 minutes.
Worst line to bet: Kansas State -10 (-110)
Pittsburgh moneyline (+110) at Cincinnati
Pitt has a new offense and I’m bullish. The offense is up-tempo — sixth-fastest in all of college football in Week 1 — and had its best offensive output in terms of EPA/Play against an FBS opponent since Week 13 of 2022. Sure, Kent State isn’t anything special, but it’s nice to see a breath of fresh air with Pitt’s offense. My model has Pitt favored in this one and anything at plus-money on the moneyline is a good bet.
Worst line to bet: Pitt moneyline +100
Central Michigan -6.5 (-110) at FIU
Last week I was close to having a play on FIU — and probably should have bet some on game day as the line went too much towards Indiana — and this week my model is showing an edge in the opposite direction. Despite covering the closing number, FIU was grossly outplayed by Indiana and should have never even come close to covering the spread. My number makes Central Michigan north of a touchdown here so anything at 6.5 or better is a play.
Worst line to bet: Central Michigan -6.5 (-110)
Appalachian State +17.5 (-105) at Clemson
Clemson’s offense looks rough. Maybe Georgia is just that good, but it never felt like Clemson had any chance to move the ball last week. Sure, App State is nowhere near Georgia, but the Mountaineers are not an easy opponent by any stretch. I don’t have a lot of faith in Clemson winning by a big margin with how they’ve been trending on offense the last few seasons.
Worst line to bet: Appalachian State +17.5 (-110)
Oregon State -5.5 (-110) at San Diego State
San Diego State just barely covered last week against Texas A&M Commerce despite a plus-4 turnover margin. That’s not what you want to see. I was optimistic about the Sean Lewis hire having an early impact, but it might take a little more time than I had originally thought. Oregon State didn’t exactly light the world on fire against Idaho State last week, but the box score was a little more favorable. The Beavers had consistent success on offense. My number for this game has Oregon State closer to a double-digit favorite.
Worst line to bet: Oregon State -6.5 (-110)
Kansas -5 (-110) at Illinois
Jalon Daniels has been nothing but awesome when he’s suited up for the Jayhawks and I expect nothing different from him this weekend. Kansas has a top-15 offense per my model and I have a hard time seeing Illinois having the firepower to stay within the number here. My model favors Kansas by seven.
Worst line to bet: Kansas -6.5 (-110)
Line already moved: Bowling Green at Penn State
I had this one ready to go at Bowling Green +35, but the line moved to +34.5 before we could publish. I don’t love playing huge dogs against great teams, but I think Penn State is a little overvalued here. I’m holding a ticket on Penn State to make the College Football Playoff and think the Nittany Lions are a borderline top-five team right now and I still can’t get to this number. Add in the possibility of Penn State rotating players a lot to keep them fresh for its potential playoff run and I think Bowling Green can stay within the number. Also, for entertainment reasons, maybe don’t watch this one and hope the ticket gets to the window when you check the score well after the game.
If it goes back to +35, I’d play it.
Worst line to bet: Bowling Green +35 (-110)
(Photo of Jalon Daniels: Ed Zurga / Getty Images)
