It’s showtime, folks.
Game week is finally here. On Saturday, the Minnesota Vikings will fly to face the New York Giants to kick off this season. Week 1 will answer plenty of questions about this team, but before the weekend, let’s offer a snippet of what you might see.
Here’s the pregame edition of the Vikings mailbag. Thanks to all of you who submitted questions!
Can you make sense of the decision to waive Jaren Hall and sign Brett Rypien? — Gary G.
If you don’t think last year’s quarterback carousel scarred the Vikings’ leadership team, you’re wrong. On Thursday, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said, “You’re either one snap away, or you’re one snap from being one snap away.” In other words, reliable depth is vitally important.
Hall performed in the preseason. He completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 339 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions — indisputably impressive. But those numbers come with a caveat: Hall played well against mostly third- and fourth-string defenses.
In those circumstances, you can get away with lesser arm strength, some inaccuracy and more time in the pocket. That’s not to say that Rypien, who has a career 4-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio, is more capable. But the Vikings see him as more reliable if he’s needed in a pinch. And while head coach Kevin O’Connell spoke Thursday about wanting to continue to develop Hall, roster realities dictate you typically only have room to develop one option, and that spot is reserved for J.J. McCarthy.
GO DEEPER
J.J. McCarthy is done for the season, and the Vikings are left to pick up the pieces
The #Vikings have signed QB Brett Rypien and waived QB Jaren Hall. pic.twitter.com/8o6ygjYFMn
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) August 29, 2024
What ultimately sank Kene Nwangwu’s chances of making the team? — Dan C.
The fact that he has been injury prone and his level of physicality when he saw action for the Vikings. The Vikings decided they had more confidence in Myles Gaskin as a potential three-down player in the event of injury.
It’s a sensible opinion; Gaskin has 361 career carries compared to Nwangwu’s 88. Furthermore, Nwangwu, who was scooped up by the New Orleans Saints after being placed on waivers, failed his physical.
Like the quarterback decision, this move could backfire. Maybe Nwangwu lands with another roster and explodes as a byproduct of the new kickoff rules. His speed is undeniable. The Vikings know that, but compiling a 53-man roster requires a consideration of longevity and merit, and ultimately the Vikings hitched themselves to Gaskin’s wagon.
When should we expect to see T.J. Hockenson back? — Keenan C.
Week 5 is a fair projection. That’s when he is eligible to return from the physically unable to perform list. His presence on the list means he can practice, and he won’t need any runway in terms of learning the system. Don’t be surprised if he suits up in London against the New York Jets.
Hockenson is already sprinting and running routes on side fields. Had the Vikings prioritized the team over the player, they probably could have pushed him to return in these first few weeks. But from the outset, that’s not how they’ve viewed this process, even working in tandem with Hockenson’s private trainers in Nashville to establish trust.
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What kind of in-game improvements will you be watching for from O’Connell going into his third year? — Peter O.
It’s all about the run game. By most metrics, both simple and advanced, the Vikings have fielded one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL in the last two seasons. The running backs shoulder some of the blame. The offensive line, too. Injuries to quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receiver Justin Jefferson last season did not help either. O’Connell is by no means the only culpable party.
That said, the results must change. Aaron Jones will likely help, but the onus falls on O’Connell and the offensive staff to consistently commit to the ground and construct favorable schemes that suit the offensive linemen. Doing so will help the offensive line in pass protection, make it easier on quarterback Sam Darnold and loosen the grip defenses have on defending Jefferson. Improve the run game, and O’Connell’s offense will be difficult to knock.
Would you rather do play-by-play on the radio or let Paul Allen write a postgame story for you? — Scott H.
I’m choosing option No. 2 for the sole purpose of wanting to see how many times Mr. Allen uses alliteration.
How will our defense be different from last year? — Trevon B.
It starts with the personnel. The Vikings subtracted Danielle Hunter and Jordan Hicks but added Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Dallas Turner, Blake Cashman, Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin. Brian Flores’ defensive unit got younger, faster and more versatile with edge rushers, specifically, that align more with how deceptive he wants to be.
Hunter is unquestionably elite, but Flores was never going to ask him to drop into coverage, which in some ways limited the overall pass-rushing menu. In 2021, Flores used stunts nearly 30 percent of the time; last year, the team’s stunt usage hovered around 23 percent and ranked near the bottom of the NFL.
Vikings pass rushers have been setting screens for one another and looping around all camp. And now, when edge rushers like Van Ginkel are asked to drop, Flores has confidence in them. Van Ginkel was the league’s highest-graded coverage edge rusher last season, according to Pro Football Focus.
Adding Gilmore and Griffin also gives Flores more of what he prefers from a coverage standpoint: the ability to play man. This is no secret. In 2021, Flores’ Dolphins played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL: 45.7 percent of snaps. Last year, the Vikings ranked near the bottom of the league in man coverage usage at around 20 percent. Gilmore and Griffin spent the early portions of their career in man-heavy systems, so that number should climb.
Combine all this, and you have a more versatile, more creative and potentially more aggressive unit, which should be unsettling for opposing offensive coaches.
GO DEEPER
2024 NFL win total projections for all 32 teams: Experts react to our model
Who will lead the team in sacks and quarterback pressures? — Luke B.
Somewhat surprisingly, Van Ginkel notched more pressures last year than Greenard, according to TruMedia. Van Ginkel tallied 53 for the Dolphins, and Greenard added 48 for the Texans. Greenard is probably the safe bet in both of these metrics in 2024, but if Van Ginkel stays healthy, look out.
There are two sleepers, though neither should catch you off guard: Turner, whose role has not been completely clear in training camp practices, and linebacker Ivan Pace Jr., who is likely to rush the passer on stunts at a rate that suits his skill set perfectly.
Any idea what kind of defensive front we’ll see most often? — Hunter G.
It’ll be matchup-dependent but expect to see a lot of five-man fronts with Greenard, Jonathan Bullard, Harrison Phillips, Jerry Tillery and Van Ginkel.
Which of the Vikings’ perceived weaknesses has the potential to be a surprise strength and why? — Matthew S.
How about cornerback? Although Gilmore, Griffin and Byron Murphy Jr. have navigated injuries in recent years, part of me wonders if moving Murphy into the slot will have an exponential effect on the coverage unit. There are smarts and savvy here that may pay dividends. For example, how many secondary teammates have seen as much as Gilmore and Harrison Smith? Health permitting, paired with the pass-rush plan, maybe the Vikings corners are even more effective than we think they’ll be.
Excited to see what the DB room brings this year pic.twitter.com/uJRo2iWuEz
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) August 29, 2024
What kind of shape are we in for 2025 with the salary cap? — Kevin F.
The Vikings are in exceptional shape.
Over The Cap currently projects the Vikings to have about $55 million to spend after draft picks are paid, which is the sixth most in the NFL. This is a ballpark estimate, considering all the moves the team could make. Some examples: Minnesota could extend right tackle Brian O’Neill, restructure or extend center Garrett Bradbury or tight end Josh Oliver, etc. Plenty of moves could create more room, which is one of the major benefits of a rookie quarterback contract.
The question then becomes: How will the Vikings use that space? Free-agent signings? Trade-and-extension swings for elite players? Flexibility abounds.
How many wins will the Vikes have this year? — Kris K.
I have not done a full schedule prediction, so why not let it fly? Here’s a game-by-game pick ’em, with me having the right to change during the season based on evaluation and intel:
At Giants: Win
Vs. 49ers: Loss
Vs. Texans: Loss
At Packers: Loss
Jets: Win
Vs. Lions: Loss
At Rams: Loss
Vs. Colts: Win
At Jaguars: Win
At Titans: Win
At Bears: Loss
Vs. Cardinals: Win
Vs. Falcons: Loss
Vs. Bears: Loss
At Seahawks: Win
Vs. Packers: Win
At Lions: Loss
Final prediction: 8-9.
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(Photo of Jaren Hall: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
