College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Will teams like Ole Miss, Kansas State be in or out?

This is a season about hope.

For most of college football’s existence, much of the sport had none when it came to competing for a national title. Somehow, those odds got steeper when the four-team College Football Playoff was born.

Expanding that field into the new 12-team iteration changes that often-infuriating arithmetic that left deserving teams like Florida State last season, Texas A&M in 2020, UCF in 2017 and Baylor and TCU in 2014 cursing the way college football crowned a champion.

Now, every single team opening its season can chase the dream: Win every game, and it’s very likely, if not certain, that a team’s national title hopes will be decided on the field, not in a boardroom by 13 people or by a dozen computers.

Remember: The Group of 5 now has a guaranteed spot in the field for its highest-ranked conference champion, and it can move into one of the top four spots if the G5 representative finishes higher in the polls than a Power 4 champion.

This is Bubble Watch, a new weekly check-in chronicling the ebbs and flows of that hope. Which teams have seasons that could put them in the Playoff but could just as easily go the other way?

Each week, we’ll closely examine Saturday’s biggest mover and take a snapshot of the teams on the bubble. For almost every team, one loss changes fortunes in a hurry. For some teams, securing one big win can totally change their outlooks.

As someone who never thought we’d see anything like this in his lifetime, I don’t want to lose sight of how much has changed as we begin a season unlike any other.

The Athletic’s Austin Mock created a model to project the initial field.

The top four seeds go to the highest-ranked conference champions, with a fifth conference champion making the bracket too.
First Five out: Kansas State, Michigan, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma

Entering Week 1, we start with a look at teams that appear in the bubble zone, according to our odds and analysis, but have burgeoning hope of reaching the Playoff. Plus, which elite programs could have a fresh path back to the top?

Each team’s chance to make the field is included in the only Bubble Watch of the season conducted when a tiny fraction of teams have taken the field.

Newfound hope

These teams have never qualified for a Playoff and would find doing so to be an uphill battle. But now, their chances are higher than ever. 

Ole Miss

The Rebels, who field one of the program’s best-ever rosters, haven’t opened a season ranked this high in the AP Poll (No. 6) since 1970. In the four-team Playoff, it would be hard to see them reaching the finish line, considering coach Lane Kiffin has come within 14 points of Alabama or Georgia just once. Not anymore. How many SEC (and Big Ten) teams make the field will be a talking point this fall.

Percent to make Playoff: 48 percent

Kyle Whittingham famously led Utah to an undefeated 2008 season and finished No. 2 in the AP poll behind Florida after rolling past Nick Saban and Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. They never have to worry about that again. Widespread injuries marred last season, but the Utes are the favorite in their new league, the Big 12.

Percent to make Playoff: 46 percent

Kansas State

In the new Big 12 without Texas or Oklahoma, reaching the four-team Playoff would be a tall ask in most seasons. But K-State will benefit in this iteration. The Wildcats finished in the top 10 six times under Bill Snyder. Chris Klieman has built a solid foundation, and new starting quarterback Avery Johnson has showcased flashes of being able to lead the Wildcats to a Big 12 title or even an at-large berth.

Percent to make Playoff: 41 percent

After the latest round of realignment, Boise State is clearly the best overall program outside the Power 4 conferences and Notre Dame. Twice since 2006, the Broncos have gone undefeated. They didn’t play for a title in either season. This year, they travel to Oregon and play Pac-12 leftovers Washington State and Oregon State. Spencer Danielson took over at midseason a year ago and led Boise to its first Mountain West title since 2019. Boise doesn’t have to go undefeated and pray for 100 other things to fall its way.

Percent to make Playoff: 32 percent

Eli Drinkwitz is stacking recruiting classes of a new caliber at Mizzou and should benefit from a favorable schedule this season. The Tigers were a game away from the BCS title game after losing to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game in 2007. Missouri would have likely made a 12-team Playoff field as an SEC member 2013 and 2023 but now it’s real.

Percent to make Playoff: 31 percent

Texas A&M

Is Mike Elko the coach who can finally get Texas A&M’s roster playing up to its potential? Kevin Sumlin showed flashes in 2012, as the Aggies finished the season as one of the hottest teams in America. Jimbo Fisher sniffed the Playoff in 2020 but just missed. There’s lots of attention on what A&M lost in the portal, but it added Purdue edge rusher Nic Scourton and returns much of the offensive core. K-State legend Collin Klein, one of the fastest up-and-coming coaches in the sport, left his alma mater to join the Aggies as offensive coordinator.

Percent to make the Playoff: 26 percent

The Hokies played for a national title in 1999, losing to … Florida State, which they now share a conference with. A Big East-ACC national title game feels like an alternate universe, in part because Big East football no longer exists. But the Hokies making the Playoff under Brent Pry is a real possibility in a wide-open ACC, thanks to an offense that got red hot late last season and returns all 11 starters, paired with an experienced defense. Virginia Tech never reached a New Year’s Six Bowl and hasn’t played in a major bowl game since Frank Beamer won the Sugar Bowl in 2011, capping a run of four BCS bowls in five seasons.

Percent to make Playoff: 23 percent

Liberty joined the FBS in 2018, and last year, went 13-0 before Oregon crushed the Flames in the Fiesta Bowl, raising questions about their berth in the New Year’s Six ahead of American champion SMU. Either way, money talks, and Liberty has plenty. Their resources far outpace their counterparts’ in Conference USA, and the Flames figure to be in this conversation almost annually.

Percent to make Playoff: 23 percent

The Cowboys were on the doorstep of the BCS title game in 2011 before tripping up at Iowa State, and like K-State, they would find cracking the four-team Playoff a tough assignment in the new Big 12. But this year, with one of the nation’s best running backs in Ollie Gordon II, the Cowboys’ situation is an immediate upgrade.

Percent to make Playoff: 22 percent

Memphis reached the Cotton Bowl in 2019, but the Tigers have never seriously entered the national title conversation, despite four different coaches leading the program to double-digit wins since the birth of the Playoff. Now that it’s expanding, Memphis may be one of the biggest beneficiaries, fueled by an experienced offense led by four-year starter Seth Henigan at quarterback and Roc Taylor at receiver.

Percent to make Playoff: 12 percent

A new season of hope

These programs have spent time as the class of the sport. Each has a shot to make the Playoff. But things could go off the rails in a hurry, too. 

The Tigers’ 2019 national championship team has a case as the best team in the history of the sport. Coach Brian Kelly left Notre Dame to win a national title. He helped Jayden Daniels win the Heisman, but a disastrous defense destroyed any promise last season had. The Tigers (probably) would have narrowly missed a 12-team field in both of Kelly’s first two seasons. He’s got new coordinators this year in Joe Sloan and Blake Baker, as well as a new QB in Garrett Nussmeier.

Percent to make Playoff: 59 percent

Few coaches in history have taken over with more house money in their pocket than Sherrone Moore, whose work keeping Michigan on track to last season’s national title during Jim Harbaugh’s late-season suspension earned him the job after Harbaugh bolted. Moore will get a pat on the back (and maybe an extension) for proving he can do it for a full season, but this is still a program aiming for championships.

Percent to make Playoff: 37 percent

Dabo Swinney is a two-time national champion. He also lost the same number of ACC games last season (4) as he did from 2017-2022. QB Cade Klubnik offers potential but hasn’t shown more than flashes. Does coordinator Garrett Riley’s offense pick up in year 2? Simply making the Playoff might assuage concerns about the program’s trajectory. Earning a bye as ACC champ would be better. After Florida State stumbled in Ireland, no team’s Playoff fortunes improved more by sitting at home on Saturday.

Percent to make Playoff: 36 percent

Oklahoma

The Sooners are 0-4 all-time in Playoff games and haven’t won a major bowl game since 2020. In Norman, that span feels like a century. Making the Playoff in Year 1 of the SEC would go a long way in cementing Brent Venables as a first-time head coach who has rebounded from a rough start. Since 2000, Oklahoma has fallen short of 10 wins only four times (excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season). Venables is already responsible for one of them, as well as Oklahoma’s first losing season since 1998. There’s pressure in Norman, and much of it rests on new QB Jackson Arnold’s shoulders.

Percent to make Playoff: 25 percent

Is it now or never with Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes? Cam Ward and Damien Martinez left Pac-12 leftovers to chase a Playoff berth at a once-proud program that hasn’t won its conference since 2003 and has won 10 games just once since then. If Cristobal can get them there, it’ll cool much of the criticism of his game management and his teams’ penchant for underachieving.

Percent to make Playoff: 21 percent

Bubble burst … already?

Florida State

Nothing erodes capital for a coach faster than flopping with the entire sport watching like Mike Norvell’s team did Saturday in Ireland. Last year’s 13-0 campaign feels like a distant memory after Georgia Tech outplayed ACC favorite FSU on the lines of scrimmage. FSU’s odds before the loss were at 54 percent. And now?

Percent to make Playoff: 20 percent

GO DEEPER

The 12-team Playoff era opened with a contender losing. What does that mean this early on?

 (Photo of Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart: Michael Wade / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)