There are two points to acknowledge about the state of the presidential race right now:
- Kamala Harris is enjoying a boosted honeymoon period, thanks in large part to a lot of media excitement surrounding her candidacy.
- The boost in Harris’ polling is due in large part to Democrat voters coming home, rather than independent voters suddenly making up their minds.
If the election were held today, it would be a very close one. Harris is outpolling Donald Trump in a head-to-head match-up, but Trump is outpolling Harris on issues. Harris and her team, possibly in a fit of overconfidence, have come out with an economic plan that is part price controls and part more handouts that will add to inflation. None of her plans really address the inflation problem at all, much less immediately.
Republicans are worried because Trump is having a hard time staying on message. He’s been erratic since the assassination attempt (and, to be fair, virtually anyone in his position would be rattled by nearly being killed like that), and several of his public appearances since then have been more rambling than not.
Democrats are feeling more confident than they were when Biden was the candidate at the top of the ticket, though there are signs that they are showing more confidence than they actually feel. Take this piece from POLITICO, which reads more like a DNC-sponsored piece than a true state of play.
Battleground Democrats are suddenly jumping at the chance to campaign with the top of the ticket. Outside groups are pushing resources toward offense. And swing House seats that President Joe Biden was losing by large margins are now tied.
Democrats cautiously believed that Biden’s exit would revive their chances in key races. Now they’ve gotten a pile of evidence that it has — and it’s not just a brief moment.
Keep in mind, though, that while they are saying “Battleground Democrats are suddenly jumping at the chance” to campaign with Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, the party’s most at-risk candidates are skipping the Democratic National Convention this coming week.
If Sens. Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Jon Tester (Montana), and Jacky Rosen (Nevada) are skipping, it’s because they realize just how progressive the Harris-Walz ticket is, and they know middle-of-the-road voters aren’t enthusiastic about it.
This is probably the biggest sign that this race is still a toss-up, though, in normal circumstances, it should be Trump’s race to lose. Harris’s speech on Friday, where she laid out very progressive policies, was a gift to the Trump campaign as it was an admission that prices have gone up while she’s been in office. And she owns that price hike because Biden made the decision to call his administration the “Biden-Harris administration” as a sign that they were equal partners in their running of the country.
But capitalizing on this requires Trump to stay on message at a time when he struggles to do so. And Republicans are struggling with that.
What we’re hearing: “I hear a great deal of frustration from supporters,” one House Republican told Axios of Trump’s campaign rhetoric, speaking on the condition of anonymity to talk candidly about their party’s presidential nominee.
- “We are all hoping that he will focus more,” added the lawmaker, who, like most other Republicans in Congress, has publicly endorsed Trump.
- Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a Trump endorser who is fighting to hold onto a district President Biden won in 2020, said Harris’ progressive Senate voting record “should be the message every day.”
- Another House Republican told Axios of Trump’s current dark spot: “If he doesn’t have message discipline, and he doesn’t focus on the sh*t we need to be focused on right now, it’s not going to pass.”
This also has down-ballot implications. Republicans can possibly hold on to the House, but they were expected to make solid gains in the Senate. There is potential for them to get around 56 seats, but the current trends show the best-case scenario is around 52 seats. It should be the GOP’s year with a map like this, but increased enthusiasm among Democrats and a fumble at the top of the Republican ticket is causing concern.
I mentioned this earlier this week: Trump has his base. He does not need to focus on them. He needs to win over undecided, independent voters. Harris has made the job easier because of her economic philosophy and now-on-the-record policy proposals. But Trump has to remain as disciplined as possible between now and November.
