The 2024 San Francisco Giants are a hot mess, a maelstrom of injuries, disappointments and tantalizing hints of something better that’s just out of reach. It’s not the worst team you’ve ever seen. Just one of the more frustrating teams.
I know how to get them back on track.
Not so back that they’re guaranteed a postseason slot. Goodness, no. But it would be nice if they were pointed in a direction that seems better than the current one, both for the rest of this season and the future. Here’s my second-half plan if I were running the Giants.
Trade Thairo Estrada
It’s an election year, so let me quote the catchphrase of Dave Wasserman: I’ve seen enough. Estrada might be young enough to be a part of a team’s future, but that team should not be the Giants. As an early Estrada booster, I take no pleasure in coming to this conclusion.
The reasons aren’t complicated. Estrada has abysmal pitch recognition, and he makes a lot of contact when he swings at bad pitchers. That is, perhaps, the most poisonous combination a hitter can have. When Estrada has been ahead in the count this season, he’s swung at 65 of the 116 pitches thrown in the “shadow” of the plate. Here’s how pitchers are attacking him when they should be scared about falling further behind. This is when Estrada is supposed to have the advantage:
Estrada is hitting .133 with a .167 slugging percentage when he swings at those pitches, and he’s hitting .229 with a .329 slugging percentage when he’s ahead in the count. So either it’s a problem with his approach or his pitch recognition. If it’s his approach, surely the Giants have been working with him to improve it over the last calendar year, and he’s unable to make the adjustments. If it’s his pitch recognition, there might not be much anyone can do. Estrada has become one of the easiest hitters in baseball to pitch to, which is exactly the opposite of what the Giants need. It negates everything he does well.
But he can still be a helpful player on the right team. His batting average on balls in play is about 50 points worse than the league average, which suggests at least a little bad luck. His defense is stellar. He’s a heady baseball player, and he would be a nice addition to several contending benches.
The Giants need to commit to Marco Luciano at second base at some point, though, and they have buffers for him in Brett Wisely and Tyler Fitzgerald right now. Luciano can be eased in, which is a luxury.
Talk extension with Blake Snell
I’d like to think you had coffee in your mouth and just spit it out, making a huge mess. But hear me out on this.
Snell is currently heading toward another brutal, protracted offseason. Even if he keeps pitching as well as he has been since returning from the injured list, he’s almost certain to enter the market with a mediocre stat line. His ERA, WAR, innings pitched, etc., will make a long-term, nine-figure contract just as hard to come across as it was this past offseason. “Look at how he finished the season” will only go so far.
At the same time, it’s hard to see him picking up his player option (for $30 million) if he keeps pitching this well. He’ll get more than that, but it won’t be easy, and it won’t be quick. It might be spring by the time Scott Boras finds him a new home again, and that didn’t work out last time. My much-too-early guess is that he’ll get a two- or three-year contract at a similar annual salary, with yet another player option.
The Giants should offer Snell the chance to skip that whole mess, with a contract that’s guaranteed through 2027 if he doesn’t opt out after 2025. He’ll never be a durable horse, but he’s clearly a special pitcher when he’s healthy and comfortable.
Ease off Ryan Walker and Tyler Rogers, even if it occasionally costs the Giants late leads
On Monday night, with two outs and the go-ahead run in scoring position, Bob Melvin went with Randy Rodríguez against Teoscar Hernández, not Tyler Rogers.
Good.
Not the results, which were bad. And it was likely a matchup preference, which means the decision was also bad. But that’s one fewer inning on Rogers’ arm in a season that’s unlikely to go anywhere. In the unlikely event that the season does go somewhere, it’s one fewer inning on his arm when the Giants will need him in October.
The Teoscar Hernández Show! pic.twitter.com/aRlbUeBVyR
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) July 23, 2024
Walker hasn’t been as crisp over his last several outings, and it’s not hard to draw a straight line from his league-leading 51 appearances to the possibility of fatigue. While both high-leverage relievers throw fewer pitches than a lot of their peers, they’re both on an unsustainable pace. At least, it’s unsustainable if you’re hoping they’ll maintain their current effectiveness.
The Giants have a cadre of relievers who have been helpful more often than they’ve been unhelpful, with Erik Miller, Rodríguez, Sean Hjelle and (especially) Taylor Rogers. Spencer Bivens hasn’t been scored upon since he went to Triple-A Sacramento, either. It’s not a bullpen that you should expect domination from, but there’s currently only one oh-no reliever on the roster. They can manage workloads a little better than they have been.
Move Jordan Hicks out of a traditional starting role
Two things can be true:
1. The confidence that Hicks had in himself in the offseason was justified. He can be a very good starting pitcher for a long time. He can pitch with a lot more finesse than anyone might have guessed, and the addition of a quality split-finger gives him a nasty (and complete) starter’s arsenal. The Giants should be thrilled to have him in their rotation next season.
2. It’s probably time for him to take a load off.
The Giants know this. Hicks’ start on Tuesday will be his first since July 11, so they’ve already adjusted their rotation to accommodate as much rest as possible. They’re getting Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb back soon. They should look for a way to get Hayden Birdsong regular starts. It’s a happy problem to have, and there has to be a way that Hicks and the Giants can benefit.
The exact method of easing Hicks’ burden? That should be his call. Maybe he’d feel most comfortable going every fifth day, but more as a piggyback starter, with Cobb, Ray or Birdsong coming in after a couple innings, regardless of how well Hicks is throwing. Maybe he’d feel most comfortable pitching on five days’ rest, or even six days’ rest. Maybe he’d be happiest as a bulk innings guy out of the bullpen, giving the Giants a couple innings every three or four days.
Up to him. But there’s no sense in having him grind through a full season as a traditional starter for the first time in his professional career. He can go the distance, but the Giants should ease his pain instead.
Let Luis Matos be a prospect
That is, let Matos thrive in Triple A instead of flail (offensively and defensively) in the majors. He’s still just 22, so it’s not a surprise that he’s pressing and not taking advantage of his superior bat control. He worked really hard on making better swing decisions last season, and it got him all the way to the big leagues.
More work is needed. Let him do it in Sacramento, away from scrutiny and second-guessing. The Giants traded away Austin Slater in part to commit to Matos as the default option against left-handed pitchers, but that role isn’t consistent enough to give Matos the at-bats he needs. Give Jerar Encarnación a shot, or go back to the waiver wire for someone like Ryan McKenna. If the Giants don’t listen to my suggestion for Estrada, this can be how you get Tyler Fitzgerald everyday at-bats.
The other alternative would be to play Matos every day, against lefties and righties alike, and that’s something I could get behind. If that’s not going to happen, let him be a prospect who’s still one of the younger players at his level.
It’s not time for the Giants to give up. But it’s certainly not time to keep trying the same things that got them here in the first place. There are ways to think about next year, while still keeping the present in mind. It’s not about a false dichotomy of buying or selling; it’s about making sure that the 2025 team has the best shot it can, without quitting on their postseason hopes this season.
There should be a surprising number of things to like about the roster heading into the offseason. Getting it there in one piece should be the primary goal.
(Photo of Blake Snell: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
