Greg Scholz of Inside Injuries runs through some of the most notable players for fantasy football returning from injury as the 2024 NFL season gets underway.
Before we dive in, here’s a quick glossary of terms commonly used by Inside Injuries:
- IRC = Injury Risk Category (three designations: “Low,” “Elevated,” “High”) — the overall likelihood a player will get injured
- HPF = Health Performance Factor (Peak, Above Average, Below Average, Poor) — our metric to predict player performance
- ORT = Optimal Recovery Time — the amount of time a player needs to fully recover from an injury (not the same as how much time they will actually miss).
Chubb has steadily been making progress in his recovery and, as a result, has an outside shot at participating in training camp when it begins at the end of July. If he does return, it likely won’t be to full contact, and he’ll be limited.
Chubb hasn’t seen NFL action since he tore his ACL, MCL, medial capsule and meniscus in Week 2 of the 2023 season against the Steelers. The devastating injury required two different surgeries to repair the damage. He was unable to participate in any offseason activities or Cleveland’s mandatory minicamp in early June, but that’s not for a lack of effort.
Despite his progress, this is the second knee injury Chubb has suffered that involved multiple major ligaments, the first being in 2015 when he was a member of the Georgia Bulldogs. As a result, Chubb’s recovery isn’t a science. Currently, we project he will be ready to play before Week 1, but the mental component of battling two injuries of this severity can’t be overlooked. His Injury Risk will be High for the majority of the season, but his Health Performance Factor will reach Peak levels in September if he does not suffer any setbacks.
Hockenson posted career-high numbers in 2023 despite missing the final two games after suffering a torn ACL and MCL in Week 16. An injury that severe late in the season all but guarantees he’ll miss time in 2024.
Currently, we’re predicting he returns midseason. To be more specific, he should reach Optimal Recovery in late October or early November. Looking at Minnesota’s schedule, they could strategically keep him out through their Week 6 bye.
Hockenson has battled injuries in the past, missing 11 games due to injury since entering the league in 2019. While none of his prior injuries involved significant ligament damage, we can’t overlook his history when calculating his metrics. Hockenson will enter the year with a High Injury Risk that will remain until January. The good news is that his Health Performance Factor should be Above Average in the first weeks of his return before climbing into Peak territory.
Richardson is primed to have a solid sophomore season, but that doesn’t mean he’s in the clear. Shoulder injuries like the one he suffered in Week 5 of his rookie campaign — Grade 3 AC joint sprains — are serious and can have long term complications.
The AC joint is where the collarbone and the shoulder blade meet. The two major ligaments of the joint are the acromioclavicular ligament and the coracoclavicular ligament. Richardson tore both of these ligaments, resulting in a significant loss of shoulder function. He underwent surgery in October of 2023 and began throwing again in February 2024.
Richardson is reportedly still battling soreness, which is to be expected. However, if the soreness persists into August and September, then there may be underlying issues that need to be addressed. The good news is that, as of now, he appears on track to return ahead of Week 1. His Injury Risk will be High, but his Health Performance Factor will be Peak. That said, given his mobile play style, he’s someone we will be monitoring very closely in 2024.
Entering the NFL draft season with a major injury like Brooks is never ideal. The University of Texas product ruptured his ACL back in November 2023, meaning he was only five months into his recovery when the Carolina Panthers drafted him 46th overall in April — the first running back off the board.
Brooks’ injury reportedly came with no damage to any structures besides his ACL, which is good. Additionally, he’s already resumed running and is expected to begin lateral work in the coming weeks. If nothing changes, he should be cleared to join the Panthers for training camp at the end of July.
Given that this is the only major injury documented for Brooks, his metrics are in a good spot. His Injury Risk is High, but that should drop into Elevated range around October. His Health Performance Factor will steadily increase from Below Average to Peak around September. Finally, he’ll benefit from joining a team that already had two viable running backs on their roster in Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders, likely giving him a few extra weeks before he assumes RB1 duties.
Another rookie on the list, Bowers enters the 2024 season with a less impactful injury on paper, but one that comes with more long term concerns: a hamstring strain.
Bowers did not participate in the combine or Georgia’s Pro Day due to the strain, but he has been available in minicamp and other offseason activities. It’s a good sign that the injury is minor, but that doesn’t mean he is out of the woods yet.
Hamstring strains can be highly recurring injuries that increase in severity rapidly if they are not treated correctly from the start. This is Bowers’ first documented hamstring injury, meaning this is where it needs to be caught to prevent future complications. We can’t say for sure what his individual work has looked like, but a major focus for him should be increasing flexibility and strength in the muscle.
Right now, Bowers’ Injury Risk is Elevated. This will be bumped up into High territory if the hamstring forces him to miss any time in training camp. To use a recent Raiders tight end as an example, Darren Waller’s production fell off a cliff in 2021 due to hamstring issues and he ultimately retired this offseason as a result.
After a challenging 2023 season cut short by a ruptured Achilles tendon, Rodgers is on the road to recovery and gearing up for a return in 2024. The veteran quarterback made waves towards the end of last year when he made a soft attempt at returning just four months after the injury. Ultimately, this attempt amounted to nothing.
Rehab from an Achilles rupture is intensive, with the major goals being to restore strength, flexibility, and stability to the lower leg. He had no limits during May OTAs, but he skipped New York’s June minicamp. While this absence reportedly had nothing to do with his physical health, it would have provided more insight into where he is at in his recovery.
Currently, his Injury Risk is High, but his Health Performance Factor is Above Average. It’s reasonable to expect some initial adjustments as he regains full game speed, but he has never relied on too heavily on his mobility. We may see quicker reads and shorter throws in the first few weeks of the season as he continues to gain trust in the repaired ligament, however this shouldn’t last the whole season.
(Top photo of Nick Chubb: Jason Miller/Getty Images)
