A new ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday presented some results that should have the Trump campaign feeling pretty optimistic; Donald Trump, in this poll, still only shows a 40 percent approval rating; but that’s set against Joe Biden’s 32 percent. This survey polled 1,141 adults from the “American general population.”
The Hill had this to say:
ABC News reported this is Trump’s highest favorability rating in most of the last four years, which typically saw the rating between the low to mid 30 percent range.
Biden’s numbers were slightly worse, with 32 percent of Americans stating they have a favorable view of the president and 55 percent who said they have an unfavorable view. Nine percent said they don’t have an opinion and 4 percent said they did not know.
As for Biden’s reelection prospects, 61 percent of Americans said he should end his 2024 campaign and have the Democratic party select a different candidate, while 37 percent said he should remain in the race. One percent of respondents skipped the question.
Here’s the thing: an eight-point spread isn’t “slightly worse.” That’s well outside the margin of error.
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The Hill also indulges itself in some pretty impressive understatement.
The numbers follow a dramatic few weeks in politics, capped off this week by the Republican National Convention, during which Trump was officially named the party’s presidential nominee. It came just days after Trump was shot at during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, which left his ear wounded and killed one spectator. Two other attendees were injured but are in stable condition.
Biden, meanwhile, is facing increased pressure from leaders within his own party to step aside over concerns about his ability to beat Trump and carry out a second term. The concerns were further fueled by his disastrous debate showing last month, during which his speech frequently halted and he appeared to lose his train of thought.
Dramatic may be an undersell. The last few weeks have been catastrophic for Joe Biden and the Biden re-election campaign, beginning with the president’s disastrous debate performance, and concluding with the staggering contrast between the image of a strong, vital Trump bounding to his feet after nearly being killed by an assassin and tired, pale old Joe Biden shuffling off to Air Force One after a COVID diagnosis. After all of that, the well-executed GOP national convention was just the icing on the cake.
It’s a wonder that even 32 percent of the population sees Joe Biden as anything but a disaster. These people are likely among the roughly 1/3 of the population who would vote for a Democrat if the candidate was a stuffed armadillo.
There is, as usual, a catch: The ABC/Ipsos poll apparently just surveyed the “general population,” and oversampled certain minority groups:
This ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted July 19 to 20, 2024, by Ipsos using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,141 adults age 18 or older with oversamples among Black and Hispanic respondents. One respondent was removed from the final data for refusing all of the survey items.
And, of course, this isn’t how we elect presidents. These kinds of national surveys are broad indicators of the national mood, but as always, look to the battlegrounds. That’s where the election will be decided – and that’s where Trump is pulling ahead.
