Florida football has to show improvement or risk being swamped in expanded SEC

DALLAS — Billy Napier knew it was coming. He has been around long enough to know this is part of the business. So when the question came about his job security and all the noise around him, Florida’s third-year coach knew to not be defensive.

But also to go a bit on the offense, like against his predecessor.

“Change doesn’t happen overnight. I think ultimately, timing is everything right?” Napier said. “When we took the job, what we inherited, the work that needed to be done, we’re on schedule to some degree.”

To some degree is putting it lightly. Napier has had two losing seasons, and if it’s a third, the Gators almost certainly will be looking for a new coach.

But Napier spoke Wednesday at SEC media days about the progress he has seen in the program. If that leads to an unexpected breakout season, despite a tough schedule, then great. But what about the in-between? What if Year 3 for Napier is a small step forward?

Florida’s administration and fans are presented with a conundrum. Napier is Florida’s fourth coach since 2011. There’s an argument to be made that the Gators could use some stability. Will Muschamp got less than four years. Jim McElwain was fired in his third year. Dan Mullen was fired in his fourth year. At some point, do schools need to ride with a coach, let him truly build something and establish his culture?

The counterargument: Just because those other coaches didn’t get more time doesn’t mean Napier should if he doesn’t look like the coach to take Florida back to glory. And with the SEC getting bigger and stronger, Florida risks getting swamped, pun intended, into near-permanent mediocrity.

Billy Napier is 11-14 in two seasons as Florida’s coach. (David Rosenblum / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

There is no Florida birthright to superpower status. Those who only know the Steve Spurrier-to-Urban Meyer era (with the sprinkling of Ron Zook) would assume the last decade has been an aberration. But before Spurrier, the program had zero SEC championships and a mere two top-five AP poll finishes.

It’s also hazardous to just assume the Gators are in too talent-rich an environment to not be good. Florida State is on the upswing, Miami might be as well, and recruiting is more national now anyway. Florida has to show proof of concept.

Good luck, one would say derisively, given the schedule: Georgia (in Jacksonville), trips to Texas, Florida State, Tennessee and Mississippi State, home games against LSU, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Texas A&M and UCF.

The season opener against Miami, being in Gainesville, is high-risk, high-reward. The Hurricanes are expected to have a top-15 team, so an upset would be great, a competitive loss would provide hope. A convincing loss would be bad, considering the vibes and outside noise.

Still, Napier made a case for optimism: Seventeen starters are back, and the Gators have a roster with close to 41,000 snaps of experience.

“For the first time, we’ve got some stability. The roster has stabilized,” Napier said. “We’ve got competitive depth. There’s incredible leadership at the player level.”

That will manifest itself, Napier argued, in turning around close games. Florida had two one-possession losses last year, Arkansas and Missouri, plus a loss to Florida State during which the Gators led entering the fourth quarter. The Gators were also down a field goal early in the fourth quarter at LSU, which won by 17.

There were also three one-possession losses in his first year. Is that the fault of playing experience or coaching?

“I mean, should we have won a couple of games down the stretch, would I have liked to close some of those games out in the fourth quarter? Absolutely,” Napier said. “But the reality is, I think from a system standpoint, process standpoint, in-house the culture, I think we’ve made tremendous progress.”

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That’s all nice, but talent acquisition is still what rules this sport. Mullen was fired because he wasn’t good enough at that, and it has been reflected in the NFL Draft, where the Gators only had one player picked this year. Napier was hired in large part because he knew how to recruit, having worked at Alabama from 2013 to 2016 before going on to be a successful coach at Louisiana in the Sun Belt. When he arrived in Gainesville two years ago, Napier went about building up the infrastructure to help Florida catch up in the conference.

But then the world changed. Traditional recruiting still matters — Napier signed classes ranked 13th (this year) and 12th — but the transfer portal and name, image and likeness money became bigger pieces of the puzzle.

Knowing what you know now, Napier was asked, would you have done anything differently?

“One hundred percent. Look, there were so many unknowns. Every six months, the game has changed,” Napier said. “The game is evolving as we are competing, right? So we already knew that we had a ton of work to do at Florida. From a facility standpoint, infrastructure modernizing the approach, best practices, improvement in personnel, and then here we go, the evolution of the game starts while we’re doing that.”

Some of the decisions Florida made this offseason reflected that need to change, Napier said. The Gators brought in more than a dozen transfers, including Arizona State receiver Elijhah Badger, who could be the team’s top receiver. They also took a chance on Cormani McClain, a talented cornerback who left Colorado.

But the Gators also took a hit in the portal, losing edge rusher Princely Umanmielen to Ole Miss and tailback Trevor Etienne to Georgia.

Still, per On3’s rankings, Florida has the 10th-most talented team in the nation this year. That’s behind five other SEC teams, as well as Miami, but still shows it might not be as bleak as some perceive. The bigger issue, then, seems to be whether the Gators have the right coach.

Napier succeeded in the Sun Belt, but he has had rougher moments in the SEC. That might be the bigger key this year, beyond just wins and losses: showing that he’s a more than competent coach, avoiding bad losses and showing a fight against the better teams. He also might need to show his bosses that he still has as much upside as other coaches out there, such as the ones at Ole Miss and Missouri.

Napier can turn the vibes around by having a solid season. Seven wins with this schedule might suffice. But if this is a six-win or fewer team or an unimpressive seven-win team, then it’s a tough call. The advent of the new SEC makes this a key time for Florida. It has to weigh whether this time calls for patience or something else.

(Top photo of Billy Napier: Brett Patzke / USA Today)