SAN DIEGO — Time for some real talk about the Atlanta Braves. They seem unlikely to catch the Philadelphia Phillies and extend their streak of six consecutive NL East titles, but could still enter the postseason better positioned for a deep postseason run than they were in either of the past two seasons. And they know it.
Recall that the Braves’ starting pitching was dinged up and several relievers fatigued entering the past postseasons, making it a tall order to win the kind of low-scoring games they needed to win in the 2022 and 2023 NLDS against the Phillies when Atlanta’s lineup, so potent during those seasons, failed to produce in either NLDS.
Now flash ahead to the present.
The Braves were 10 games behind the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies on June 12 and found themselves nearly that far back a month later, despite the Phillies being without injured J.T. Realmuto for that entire stretch and injured-list stints for Phillies sluggers Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber within that period.
The Braves picked up a game Friday and are now 8 1/2 games back after winning 6-1 in their series opener at San Diego. They got another impressive start from rookie Spencer Schwellenbach — three hits, one run allowed in a career-high seven innings — and a four-run fifth inning fueled by homers from Marcell Ozuna and Orlando Arcia.
Ozuna homered again in the ninth, giving him 26 to go with a National League-leading 77 RBIs, and breaking an Atlanta-era franchise record of 75 before the All-Star break, which he accomplished last season and Andruw Jones did in 2006.
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But despite the all-around team performance Friday, the Braves, who were shut out 1-0 Thursday at Arizona, gained just a game and a half on the Phillies in a month. And now Harper and Schwarber are back and Realmuto is nearing a return.
Can the Braves still come from behind to win another division title, as they did in 2022 when they trailed the Mets by 9 1/2 games on June 2, or in 2021 when they were in third place on Aug. 1, five games behind the Mets and a game behind the Phillies?
Yes, they can. But it’s becoming less likely by the week.
That’s partly because their offense remains so inconsistent, but more because these Phillies are significantly stronger than the 2022 Mets, and far more formidable than either of the teams ahead of the Braves on Aug. 1, 2021 — the Mets at 56-49 (.533) and Phillies at 52-53 (.495).
It would probably take an offense bolstered by a July trade or two, like when the Braves were rejuvenated by four trades in July 2021, along with a second-half slide by the Phillies.
“It’s gonna be a good challenge for us,” said Ozuna, the fourth major leaguer in the past 10 seasons to have at least 25 homers and 75 RBIs before the All-Star break. “(Philadelphia) is a good team. They’ve got tricky pitching.”
So, why are these Braves confident they can make a deep playoff run, regardless of whether they win the division?
“You know why, because the last two years we’ve (had a first-round bye), and they beat us twice” in the NLDS, Ozuna said. “Maybe they win the division and we can wake up and have (postseason) success. We want to win the (NL East) title; we have a lot of titles in a row. But if we don’t win the title, we’re going to wake up and win all of the (postseason series). That’s our goal.”
Ozuna is among players who believe having a first-round bye and five-day break before the NLDS has been a negative for hitters, pointing to the Braves and Dodgers, who had MLB’s best offenses last season before both had byes and lost in the NLDS.
Others are reluctant to say it because they don’t want it to sound like they’re making excuses or not striving as hard to win the NL East. But the sentiment is there.
Mainly because of Atlanta’s pitching.
If the frontline starting trio of All-Stars Chris Sale and Reynaldo López and 2022 Cy Young runner-up Max Fried stays healthy and pitches like it has through 93 games, and a deep bullpen remains healthy — Atlanta relievers’ 2.93 ERA before Friday led the NL — then the Braves will line up well with anyone.
“Yeah, however we get (to the postseason),” reliever A.J. Minter said. “Like I said, obviously we want to win the division. But whatever happens, we’ll cross that bridge when it comes. But I really like this team in the playoff situation. … I don’t think anyone’s going to want to face us. If we do get into the postseason, we’ll be a scary team to face. I wouldn’t want to face us, that’s for sure.”
Third baseman Austin Riley said of winning the NL East, “That’s how you guarantee yourself a spot in the playoffs is winning the division. And, yeah, I think that’s the goal. You’ve got to obviously take it day by day and not get ahead of yourself. You know, it’s been a little bit of a roller coaster, but we’ve still we still got a lot of games left.”
But if they don’t win the NL East?
“Just take a take a look at ’21,” Riley said. “We weren’t (playing well), and then the next thing you know you get hot at the right time and you win ballgames. And next thing you know you win a World Series. That’s the beautiful thing about this game is, like, we can talk about and picture and try to do this, try to do that. But until you’re in the middle of it, you don’t know what’s gonna happen. That’s what’s so cool about it.”
Braves players also think their offense will improve in the second half. But their optimism about the postseason is owed largely to a rotation led by that threesome and showing improved depth behind 40-year-old No. 4 starter Charlie Morton with the steady improvement of Schwellenbach.
The Braves have made it a priority to get extra rest for their starting pitchers to try to keep them healthy and fresh for the stretch drive and postseason, and plugging in sixth starters from the minors has helped starters to go deeper, saving wear and tear on relievers. Before Friday, the Braves were the only MLB team with five relievers who had at least 25 appearances and ERAs below 3.00.
“You can see from the workload standpoint, we have been doing a better job of that,” Minter said. “Bullpen guys, starting pitchers, six-man rotation, giving those guys extra rest. We have the depth to do so. Not all teams have the luxury to be able to do what we’ve been doing. The bullpen has depth, we have (plenty of) guys who can come in in high-leverage situations. So I think we’re learning from our weaknesses and mistakes from the past, where we came in limping a little bit.
“I think this year we’re doing a very good job of making sure we’re keeping an eye on the workload. That way we’re all healthy at the end.”
Riley was asked how he felt about the Braves’ chances in the postseason with all those pitchers, particularly the frontline starters.
“I love it,” he said. “I truly think that pitching and defense win championships. And what our guys are doing right now is pretty special. And the guys we’ve got right now I’d take to playoffs right now. We’ve got to get there, got to stay healthy, obviously. But what our pitching has done, it’s been pretty unique.”
So, too, is what Schwellenbach has done. He pitched just 110 innings in minor-league ball and was a shortstop in college at Nebraska until adding closer duties in his final collegiate season but progressed rapidly since his May 29 big-league debut. In his past two starts, against the Phillies and then Friday, he’s allowed two runs in 13 innings, with 10 hits, just one walk and nine strikeouts.
Braves manager Brian Snitker says Schwellenbach already has a feel for pitching that’s beyond what someone of his experience would be expected to have. One need only watch him and listen to him, and the composure and intellect stand out.
“About the third inning I came in and was kind of confused about them not swinging at certain pitches, or swinging and missing at all,” Schwellenbach said after Friday’s win. “And I pretty much just said, don’t search for strikeouts, just search for weak contact, and that’s kind of what I did. Cutter, sinker, and then work my off-speed off of it and just produce weak contact, or contact, and that ended up working out really well for me.”
Snitker said, “I’ve said that from the get-go, he doesn’t let the game speed up on him, he’s got a lot of confidence. It reminds me of (Spencer) Strider his first year.”
If he keeps progressing, Schwellenbach might even be an option for the rotation or bullpen in the postseason — however the Braves get there.
(Photo: Denis Poroy / Getty Images)
