If Democrats in general and the Biden reelection campaign are looking at recent (and by recent, I mean post-debate) polling and not starting to sweat, then they are either terminally clueless or in a state of denial the size of the Virgo Supercluster. The debate was, of course, last Thursday, and a look at presidential election polling compiled by RealClearPolling (RCP) starting Friday is, well, revealing. Let’s look at the last three days’ results.
Friday:
There was only one entry on RCP Friday, that being a Data for Progress (as you might guess, a left-leaning group) that shows Trump leading Biden by two points in a head-to-head match; this survey was, though, taken post-debate. That’s the first indicator, and it’s not far off of where the numbers were pre-debate. But swing-state polling over the weekend released some results that will have Democrats concerned.
Saturday:
RCP reports two polls on Saturday. Both are presented by EPIC-MRA. The first is a one-on-one Trump/Biden contest in Michigan, one of the swingiest of swing states, and it shows Trump ahead 49-45. The second was a five-party survey, with Trump and Biden also facing Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West; Trump again leads Biden by three points, with the others well back in the pack — Kennedy was the only one to break into double digits, with ten points.
An Interactive Polls survey, though, also on Saturday, revealed something that, if accurate, should be truly alarming to Democrats.
📊 NEW JERSEY GE: @coefficientpoll
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟦 Biden: 40%
🟨 RFK/3rd Party: 7%
⬜ Undecided:13%
—
Senate
🟦 Kim: 39%
🟥 Bashaw: 33%
🟨 Menendez: 3%
⬜ Undecided: 25%H2H Ballot –
🟦 Kim: 41%
🟥 Bashaw: 34%
⬜ Undecided: 25%#237 (1.1/3.0) | June 26-27 | 810 LV… pic.twitter.com/X5CNraZXL4
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 28, 2024
See Related: Dems Are Going to Flip Out: NJ Poll Has Shocking, New Numbers in Presidential Race
Devastating: Latest CBS Post-Debate Poll Numbers Paint Grim Picture for Biden
Sunday:
Sunday, though, that’s where the rubber meets the road. A look at the battleground state polls shows:
Pennsylvania, Trump v. Biden, Kennedy, West, and Stein, a survey by Cygnal has Trump leading by four points. In a head-to-head match, Trump is likewise four points ahead.
But here’s the real interesting one: In New Hampshire, in a survey released Sunday by St. Ansel, Trump is leading Biden by two points, 44 to 42 — not a wide margin, but revealing, as the last New Hampshire survey, in May, had Biden leading Trump by four points; another in January had Biden ahead by seven.
Sunday’s head-to-head general election polls offer no comfort, as Harvard/Harris has Trump ahead by four points, although Morning Consult has him leading by only one.
Standard disclaimers: The general election polls, using national samples, mean little, as that’s now how we elect presidents. RedState readers are a good cut above the average when it comes to civics and the Constitution, so I’m not telling you anything new here. And while individual state polls aren’t always revealing — the less savvy among the legacy media are fond of ballyhooing outlier polls that show their guy (Joe Biden) with a temporary advantage — what I’m looking for is trends and broad strokes.
Those trends and broad strokes aren’t looking good for old Joe Biden.
Granted, the election is still a tad over four months away, and that’s an eternity in politics. Joe Biden may well be replaced as the candidate. Donald Trump could slip up with some faux pas that renders him unelectable, although that seems much more likely to be a Biden problem. The point is, anything could happen. But the polling trends have to be making Democrats break out in cold sweats and lose sleep at night, especially those with a vested interest in seeing old Joe reelected for one reason or another (Hunter).
Trump, on the other hand:
Stay tuned. I’ll be refining the Electoral College maps with my guesses and predictions as the election gets closer.
