The nation is antsy with expectations today as we count down the hours until the presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. As we await the battle, conservatives feel confident and Trump looks strong.
Adding to our confidence, a recent Quinnipiac poll shows Trump pulling ahead of Biden with a larger-than-before lead.
2024 National GE:
Trump 49% (+4)
Biden 45%
.
Trump 43% (+6)
Biden 37%
Kennedy 11%
Stein 2%
West 2%
Oliver 1%.@QuinnipiacPoll, 1,405 RV, 6/20-24https://t.co/FjfkJ9UVAa
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 26, 2024
The poll shows Trump leading in a hypothetical general election by 4 points. If we look at the Quinnipiac polls history, the Trump numbers began to ascend consistently over the last 2-3 months. Trump had a high point in November of 2023 (potentially a correlation with the Oct. 7 attack on Israel) but then was below Biden each month until they tied in April and Trump shot ahead in May and June.
Quinnipiac has shown Biden tied or leading pretty much the whole cycle.
It now shows Trump +4 — it’s most pro-Trump numbers yet. pic.twitter.com/s9KEeMwCjB
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) June 26, 2024
This could reflect two things- either Biden has made people increasingly more unhappy in the last two months (which wouldn’t be hard to prove with the unchecked riots of antisemitism that add to his usual failures in the economy and national security), or perhaps the Trump conviction has shown people the true colors of the Democratic party. Their main argument is that Trump is a threat to democracy, but they acted out an unconcealed corruption of the system before our very own eyes, and not everyone took that well.
It’s hard to pinpoint the reason when there are so many to give, but those in the poll that chose Trump gave top reasons why they selected him. The highest-scoring topics were immigration, the economy, and the Israel-Hamas war. Those who chose Biden cited the Manhattan conviction, climate change, and abortion.
In an interesting dose of karma, 55 percent of the voters believed Trump should not be sentenced to prison over the Manhattan trial conviction, while 51 percent of voters believe that Hunter Biden should be sentenced to prison.
Another intriguing revelation of the polls was the contribution of Independents. 32 percent of the voters who planned to vote for RFK say that the results of the debate today could sway them to vote differently. If only given the choice of Biden or Trump, Independents backed Trump. When Independents were put on the ballot, Biden’s numbers got even lower– to 37 percent, versus Trump having 43 percent.
Biden’s approval rating was also low, with 57 percent answering that their opinion of him was “unfavorable”.
So is this the beginning of the end for Joe Biden? It wouldn’t be unreasonable to think so. Trump is expected to do well in the debate tonight. Many in the country are waiting to see if Biden can even stay coherent for the duration of the event. His health will be on trial, as well as his many blundered decisions.
He won’t have many actual facts available to defend himself, so he will rely on smoke and mirrors, something with which the Democrats are well experienced. The problem with that is that Trump has an unusual knack for calling out BS. Any liar who faces him should prepare to be publicly disarmed. And that is precisely what is expected to happen- Biden’s lies will have holes shot through them and Trump will emerge victorious.
There is a reason why Biden didn’t want to debate Trump. For the former president, this is an easy win.
